El Niño Update & Weather Report

I forgot to record when the rain stopped again, but it picked up again at approximately 8:30 pm, and is going great guns, and has been for about 20 mins.

6:15 pm – rain has started back up.

3:30 pm – rain has stopped. Received another 1/4 inch in the last 1 and 1/2 hours. Nice.

1:53 pm – I have 1/4 inch of “drizzle” today, and the rain just started up for real, not pouring, but it is rain that can be heard on the roof, and witnessed on the windows, as opposed to the drizzle I have been receiving. Yahoo! Boy, do we need it!

From the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion:

“El Niño strengthened from October to November 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean….Substantial disagreement remains among the models as to the eventual peak strength of El Niño (Fig. 6). Even at short lead times (e.g. November-December-January), SST forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region range from +0.5 to +2.0oC. At this point, it seems equally likely that El Niño will either strengthen further or remain at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0 to +1.4oC) during the next few months. Regardless of the precise peak strength, El Niño is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months.”

NOAA forecast discussion:

DISCUSSION…AS OF 9:00 AM PST THURSDAY…TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST THREE MORNINGS (ed – no kidding, almost tropical, comparatively speaking) … A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS BRINGING US A MODIFIED AIR MASS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING…. THIS IMPULSE WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MOIST ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

ON SATURDAY THE MAIN LOW WILL BRING EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT PVA. THE JET … MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE…LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

BTW, it is drizzling this morning, but no substantial rainfall. It is considerably warmer this morning, too, thank goodness!