Storm Watch, 2/19/10

6:30 pm – at 4 pm, it started raining in Morro Bay. We raced the rain, and got ahead of it after Hearst Castle, but between MB and the castle there was quite a bit of rain. It was dry on the coast, but as soon as we got to my place, around 5:30 pm, the rain started.

And from the NOAA discussion:
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND SPREAD FROM THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .1″-.3″ IS FORECAST FOR MOST METRO LOCATIONS WITH MOST THAN 1/2″ POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS SPOTS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR AREA MONDAY ALLOWING US A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE RAIN RETURNS AGAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE PRODUCES DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH UP TO .5″ FOR URBAN SPOTS AND 1″ FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS STORM WILL EXIT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BREAK BEFORE A THIRD…AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST…MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH LOCKING ON TO THIS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE GEM DEVIATES FROM THIS AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

7:30 am – Up here, it is cold, grey, and drizzling. It is not really “rain” in the traditional sense — just cloud drip — a very technical weather term. (LOL) Because I sit at one of the highest points in the area, a cloud will envelop this mountain, and it can and does drizzle during these episodes.

The current satellite picture is not particularly helpful, either.

I have tried to make sense of the various forecasts, and cannot. All I can say with relative certainty is that rain will visit us, on and off for the next week. Which days and how much doesn’t seem to be coming together with any degree of certainty.