Upcoming weather

This afternoon’s NOAA forecast discussion says Santa Cruz mountains are getting hammered. NEXRAD shows no rain for Big Sur:

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 2:32 PM PDT TUESDAY…STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO
FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DISTRICT WITH THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS STILL RECEIVING THE LION`S SHARE. THE SCOTT CREEK
AUTOMATED GAUGE AND THE BEN LOMAND RAWS HAVE BOTH RECEIVED THE MOST
RAIN WITH OVER 3.5 INCHES AT THOSE LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. AS THE RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD…EXPECT
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES TO CONTINUE IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT…TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY…NORTH BAY AND
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA: ANOTHER 0.5 – 1 INCH…SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS: 2-4 INCHES…AND MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTIES: 1/4 – 1
INCH.

THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY EXIT THE DISTRICT TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT ONE IN LINE WILL BEGIN SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING…THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME THIS
SECOND STORM DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WET BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
CWA…BUT EVEN SO WILL STILL SPREAD FROM 1-3 INCHES…WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAY.

A THIRD ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA AS THE SECOND…WITH THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST.

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANGE THE RAIN TYPE FROM STRATIFORM TO MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. IN ADDITION…THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
HEIGHTENED AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS POSITIONED OFF THE BAY AREA
COAST. SNOW LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER CONSIDERABLY…TO
THE 2000-3000 FOOT RANGE…SO SHOWERS THAT OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.