From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:
The model predictions of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6), most likely transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
And on another note:
Good news for a parched state. Mercury News has the probability at 78% for next winter. http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25723802/california-drought-el-ni-241-o-probability-raised
Happy for prudence in reporting here, compared to ‘absolute scientific’ certainties of global warming in which perfect computer models predict atmospheric state of affairs 20 years hence.