I think this is the longest post with the most maps, information, and photos that I have published thus far, but that’s it for tonight. Time to put this (and me) to bed. Good night, Gracie.
From 8:30 pm a new satellite pass MODIS map. This one provided by John Chesnut, again:
From Ana (Alva) Sargenti taken at 7:45 from her driveway on East Carmel Valley Road. This has got to be spooky. I think some of you on Partington Ridge, Apple Pie Ridge, etc. can relate to this, right?
From Iris McWilliams who says this is above the dam.
7:15 pm – and here is what I see from my perch south of Nacimiento. That peak in the bottom left is Cone Peak. Below the column is the drift smoke.
7 pm – I am seeing a huge plume down here, which I usually don’t see from this far away and in that direction. I’m sure my CV friends are nervous. Here is a photo just taken by Sandy O’Keefe Bellany. Don’t think my shot came out, but will see if I can fix it.
6:00 pm – from Tularcitos, taken by Emily Miller, just now.
5:45 pm – photos taken by Matthew Millea from the Galante Vineyard. What’s interesting about this photo is one can see a very small spot fire on the east side of Hennicksons Ridge in this first photo – slightly right of center on the ridge line. Keep an eye on that one.
3:30 pm – Burning Operation of the east side of the Soberanes Fire, photo by (Mike? Richard? or? – didn’t identify himself in the email) who says this: “Just shot this one of the backfire on hennicksens, looking over little bear trap Miller mountain in the background.”
At around 2 pm, by Kevin Gillman who says: “Looking south east from my deck in Trampa canyon. Henickson’s ridge burning toward the dam. Chews ridge off to the left, los Padres dam off to the right. Taken about 2 pm today.”
Now these tell a story, don’t they? Make sure and read all the comments on this one, as people are sharing their first hand experiences of this operation. Yesterday, after 2 days of this operation there was 2 and 1/2 miles of line burned. This morning, there was 4 miles burned. Thank you Richard and Kevin for sharing will all of us who can’t actually see this bad boy.
One of the things I paid close attention to on my way up the mountain was the direction the wind was gently blowing, which was NW, the exact direction they would want to make this line as strong as possible. I am just amazed at what they can predict and therefore do these days. That is a positive side of technology.
(FWIW, my Nat Geo topo trail map spells that ridge “Hennicksons” (I am informed by a decendent that historically it is actually Henningsen, after his great grandparents who homesteader this ridge.)
Noon
Soberanes Fire
Los Padres National Forest
Daily Update: September 17, 2016
CONTACT: Fire Information Line: (831) 204-0446 – Email:soberanesfire2016@gmail.com
Incident: The Soberanes Fire is burning in the Los Padres National Forest, Ventana Wilderness, in Monterey County, CA. The fire was started by an illegal campfire on July 22, 2016, in Garrapata State Park.
Agency Jurisdiction: CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Unit/Los Padres National Forest.
Incident Command: California Incident Management Team 4, Rocky Opliger, Incident Commander.
Current Size: 108,441 acres (71,247 acres CA-LPF; 37,194 acres CAL FIRE)
Containment: 59% Personnel: 1,942 Cause: Illegal campfire Injuries: 1 fatality, 7 injuries
Structures Destroyed:
57 homes, 11 outbuildings
Structures Threatened: 410
Crews: 20
Engines: 133
Helicopters: 19
Dozers: 9
Masticators: 2
Water Tenders: 11
Current Situation:
Favorable weather continues to support the planned burnout operations on the east side of the Soberanes Fire. Crews on Friday burned out areas on the east side of Chews Ridge to extend the indirect fire line* toward the Los Padres Dam. Burnout operations** have completed approximately 4 miles of line.
Today, operations will continue north from Bear Trap towards Los Padres Dam. Structure protection is in place within the immediate area.
The incident strategy is personnel and public safety, while protecting values at risk in the remote, rugged terrain of the Soberanes Fire area. Additional resources are in place to support the current operations.
As temperatures continues to rise and the relative humidity decreases, fire activity will increase. With increased fire activity the public can expect to see additional smoke in the fire area.
The fire is 59% contained. As the burnout operations progress and the indirect line is strengthened, the containment percentage will continue to rise.
Laurel Springs Road continues to have heavy use of fire equipment traffic. The public is advised to avoid the road.
All evacuation orders and warnings remain in effect.
For more information, visit: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/ or follow us on social media at http://www.facebook.com/LosPadresNationalForest or http://www.twitter.com/LosPadresNF.
*Indirect fire line is a fire line constructed away from the hot edge of the fire.
**Burnout is intentionally burning vegetation from the indirect fire line.
7:30 am – from John Chesnut:
“No overnight IR flight (there is a read me explicitly stating this). [reproduced below]
There is a IR helicopter flight from 3:40 Friday in the VETS folder.
VIIRS satellite shown substantial expansion of the Chews Ridge Burn”
7 am – another smoke-free day on the west side of this monster. Could not locate an IR flight map from last night, but found this:
“Soberanes, CA Wildfire Overview – 17 September 2016
c. XXXX UTC
Weather Conditions –
No data was available for analysis.
Details –
No data was received for this wildfire. No products were produced or provided.
Acreage –
Estimated Acreage: 108,031 (As of 16 September 2016)
Acreage Change (if any): +N/A”
This is what the “read me text” for the IR flight says, so it would appear that no flight was done last night, or if one was, the data for it was unavailable for interpretation.
I do, however have some of the other maps I usually provide. I will be gone this morning, and probably unavailable until afternoon sometime.
And here are the fire behavior and weather prediction discussions for both sides of the fire:
The links in the screen shot are not active. Zoom Option: https://montereycty.zoom.us/j/96244171607
Here are some stills from a video that Ivy took about 1/2 hour ago or…
This update contains no new information, but a nice photo. Here it is in any…
Currently there are both ground units and air tankers on this fire. “Approx 2 acres…
Dave Nelson, and others have been trying to get Caltrans to address their contributions to…
View Comments
Not sure I caught what the explanation was for activity in CV yesterday- maybe expanded containment lines? But it was very unnerving to watch the smoke columns rise dead ahead on new territory while driving southeast on CV road. Feels like this beast is encroaching...
The IMT is trying to tie back into the existing fire on the north east side of this beast to prevent possible future runs as the temperatures increase, the winds pick up (predicted for Sunday) and the humidity drops, as I understand it.
bigsurkate
This morning bloody glowing smokey skies looking out toward Chews Ridge at sunrise.
I've sure had my share of those. Makes for beautiful photos, despite the anxiety it creates. Hope this is over soon for all of you on the east side. I know how nerve-wracking it must be, as do many who have faced the same burn out operations here on the west side.
bigsurkate
Ok everyone, NOW is the time to knock this thing out with everything we got-at least on the west perimeter around coast ridge!! The atmospheric wind patterns and inland high that trends in our late summer and especially following an El Nino is eventually going to produce a wind episode that will blow the fire over the line probably right before Nacimientio Rd around Cone peak. The winds then typically switch southeast even southerly as the inland high retrogrades and a lower pressure establishes. This means once the fire jumps the line it will rage northward in the unburned steep coastal slopes and unlike 45 days ago our coastal brush is really dry now!! Bottom line this fire SHOULD NOT BE let to burn right now and is detroying innumerable endangered/threatened species, emitting unprecedented levels of carbon dioxide and creating a massive erosion problem for our endangered fish, frogs and wildlife. I am an advocate for ZERO tolerance for human induced fires and "fire fighting" not "fire management"-like they are doing now. Fire management should only be done for lightning based fires that are meant to burn and usually follow a fairly sustainable episodic regime. I really hope the feds invest in more DC10's and our fire fighters have more incentive to learn in depth about watershed dynamics and earth systems (CSUMB has a wonderful program that needs hard working physically accomplished individuals like fire fighters to ground truth and study many watershed issues). This way we have more of our population going to college obtaining Bachelor of Science degrees and taking on year around stable jobs and not throwing away millions of dollars of our tax money to young and old fighting fires that SHOULD NOT BE BURNING!!! I think this fire might change policy big time!!!!
cheers, paul h
Very very smokey down Hitchcock canyon... :(
Hope it's all for the good.
Thank you Kate and all the others who contribute to our understanding of a thing like this ...
Paul, I agree with the ZERO tolerance.
Who will drive the policy change?
After speaking my peace to some firemen here on East Side while watching the backfire smoke on the ridge. I was directed to Toro Park command site to express my objection to their plan.
And maybe the time has come to share this: While this site is a great resource for us laypeople, it is shunned, dare I say ridiculed by some by top shots of what is now the fire industry, Why do I say this? At one Cachagua fire meeting, I was in disbelieve of what I saw and I had my observation verified by other neighbors who attended to make sure I perceived correctly. When BigSurKate was referred to by one in the audience, they, the agency reps, physically took a slight step back on their podium, almost in unison and shared sentiment ... one almost rolled his eyes with arrogance.
That said, I sit back with anger at the devastation and cry for the loss of life and pray that stupid humans keep their presence and certainly their power out of all that is wild and more humane than humanity itself.
Interesting ... Since the IMT for this fire signed up to follow my blog - must be to see what we know. I hope my site continues to connect people on all sides of this fire, to share stories the IMT might not want to hear, as well as to express our questions, observations, frustration and even gratitude for what they do for all of us.
bigsurkate
Terribe smoke (graded unhealthy 156ppm) in Carmel Valley Village right now, it seems as bad as when the fire was first encroaching from the west. I'm in Robles Del Rio and I can't see the other side of the valley. I'm getting concerned as well. Has Soberanes taken another turn towards us? Is the smoke from controlled burns, or just a shift in the smoke direction from the burning near the dam?
I found this link on twitter regarding the soberanes smoke forecast: http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/2016/09/saturday-september-17-2016-soberanes.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Paul -one of the things you have to keep in mind is that the resources to do so are limited. When the Chimney fire broke out the Soberanes Fire IMT lost about half its resources to that. Of necessity- that requires changes in strategy.
For example- fairly early on the the ops maps showed a fireline along the Willow/Tassajara Creek axis. After the Chimney fire broke out this line was not improved and the fire subsequently slopped over the line toward it's southern end (the tongue that reached the Arroyo Seco drainage)
If you look on the ops map for today you will find a fireline extending from the Coast Ridge Road near DP-136 to Lost Valley Creek and a planned one from Rodeo Flats to DP-110 (Escondido Campground) In essence it looks like the current IMT is being more aggressive than the previous one. But being so also requires the conditions to be right without putting your firefighters at undue risk.
btw- sorry about any typos. Wordcheck keeps changing words on me and my typing skills suck too.
Upper Robles here particulate matter sucks right now, smokey air being trapped within the trees near surface, but, if I can't see the airfield or the surrounding hills ridge line beyond the village that's when I get concerned. No issues on that part.
Temps higher- humidity lower- makes it tougher on those fire back ops crew. Keep sunscreen applied, stay hydrated, & safe.
Henickson's ridge is burning actively now due to a planned burnout operation. I wish I could share a photo of it from my deck in Trampa canyon with you all...