As Paul H. Commented on yesterday’s post (please read), we have the potential of a storm with significant consequences heading this way. Here is what NOAA and the NWS had to say today:
“A more significant pattern change is expected to begin Thursday as a broad upper level trough approaches the region. This system is progged to tap into a plume of moisture over the Pacific with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches. As this system approaches it will bring precipitation into northern Sonoma county Thursday afternoon and evening. While models have fallen into agreement on this there is still some disagreement with the timing and intensity of the rainfall for Friday. The Euro (ECMWF) is the more aggressive of the two models and brings rain as far south as the Monterey Bay Thursday night while the GFS keep rain changes north of the Golden Gate. The GFS appears to catch up to the Euro Friday night as it pushes the main rain band through the region. The Euro however remains the wetter of the two solutions.
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain is anticipated Friday across the region. Heaviest precipitation is expected across the North Bay. Models indicate there will likely be a break the rain (GFS) or hit and miss showers (Euro) Saturday on the back side of the main frontal band. However a second round of showers is expected Sunday as the second boundary moves across the region. With a moist atmosphere in place the second boundary will have no trouble spreading widespread precipitation across the region. Rain is expected across the forecast area and will likely bring the season ending rains that the fires burning across the region have been waiting for.”
I hope there is an location to pick up sand bags and sand established. We had that after the Basin Fire. It’s important and the need can come quickly.
Dear Kate,
I have not been able to find these predictions. My NOAA weather forecast on the web says 50% chance of .001 inch of rain on Thursday and 60% chance of .1 inch on Sunday, with no discussion of heavier amounts at all.
Can you send a link to your or Paul H’s source website?
Thanks so much, Page
My NOAA forecast discussion that I copied and posted is on my app – I upgraded to Pro – so no link to provide. I think Paul is either a professional or amateur weather person, so it is probably his interpretation of the data.
bigsurkate
Thanks, Kate. Looking forward to showers!
Page
If you look on the NOAA Page near the bottom there is a link called “Forecast Discussion.” Right now the various models are not in alignment. Here is part of the discussion posted at 3pm:
By Thursday afternoon and evening a pronounced change in the
weather pattern is expected as a broad upper level trough
approaches the region. This system is anticipated to tap into a
plume of moisture over the Pacific with precipitable water values
over 1.5 inches. This moisture will originate from a typhoon
currently developing over the Western Pacific. As this system
approaches it will bring precipitation into northern Sonoma county
Thursday afternoon and evening. While models have fallen into
agreement on this there is still some disagreement with the timing
and intensity of the rainfall for Friday. The Euro (ECMWF) is the
more aggressive of the two models and brings rain as far south as
the Big Sur coast Thursday night while the GFS keep rain changes
north of the Golden Gate. The GFS appears to catch up to the Euro
Friday night as it pushes the main rain band through the region.
The Euro however remains the wetter of the two solutions.
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain is anticipated Friday
across the region. Heaviest precipitation is expected across the
North Bay. Models indicate there will likely be a break the rain
(GFS) or hit and miss showers (Euro) Saturday on the back side of
the main frontal band. Model solutions vary widely at this point
with the second round of shower that were expected Sunday being
pushed back to Sunday night into Monday. While models struggle
come to a consensus and the timing and intensity of the rain can
be nailed down the forecast will maintain unsettled weather
conditions through the weekend and into early next week.
Thanks, Steven. Yes, it is unsettled. It might stay north, and it might affect us. All we can do is prepare and watch as the forecasts solidify.
bigsurkate
We can hope it is just the exact right amount to put out fires & water the emerging vegetation without causing flooding or debris flows. And we can use it to help us see the things we need to do to get ready an motivate us to do the work we all need to do!
Absolutely, Joshuacanyon. Like a trial run, so-to-speak.
bigsurkate
Certainly hope so. This early in the season I would not expect the see the potential 1.5″ this far south but still. I’m hoping for just enough to assist in repair efforts and get at least some new growth started but not enough to create debris flows. Either way – should bring some cooler temps and increased humidity. Anybody know if the quiescent areas have been re-seeded aerially?
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=MTR&day=1&img=5
this is helpful for me and fairly accurate the closer you get to now.
Particularly helpful to me, as it covers the area I will be traveling during the time I am traveling. Thanks, Dave.
bigsurkate
This is what Paul H predicted weeks ago and I timed it for the original date of the now postponed Jade Festival. Looks like it’s showing up a week later. Happy for it. Time to take care of biz at home!
Soberanes Fire: A survivor’s story in Palo Colorado
http://www.montereyherald.com/general-news/20161008/soberanes-fire-a-survivors-story-in-palo-colorado?source=most_viewed