From Daniel Swain of Weather West:
From the National Weather Service through the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services, there will be a significant accumulation of rain over the next 36 hours. As the ground saturates, earth movement is possible.
The next system is very strong and moisture laden.
The heaviest rains will begin late evening and into the overnight hours into Wednesday.
The Soberanes and Chimney burn scar areas could see significant rainfall totals when this storm passes. They still do not have a handle on any significant rain rates and when those may occur. But high rain rates over the burn areas are cause for concern. They are looking at that this morning as the latest model runs are coming in.
The total rain accumulation over the Big Sur Coastal mountain areas could be upwards of 7 inches over the next 36 hours.
The Chimney burn scar area could see significantly higher amounts of rain. This could have a significant impact on the water sheds that burned that feed Lake Nacimiento.
They believe that Monterey County will see the greatest impact after sunset and through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.
Hi Kate,
Just wanted to forward you an email i sent Daniel Swain few days ago to forewarn him of the weekend 1/7-1/9 storm that is going to be on the tails of this mid week atmospheric river low. I am getting concerned more about this storm than this first big one and some possible flooding and major debris flows by Monday (1/9)!! I think this one is going to hit Big Sur very directly!!!??
Hey Daniel,
Teleconnections appear to be setting up for a very impressive entourage of storms starting Tuesday night and by Monday 1/9/17 evening next week intrinsic thresholds could be reached triggering some torrential floods and debris flows along burn scars. I am very worried to be honest with central coast streams inundated with riparian trees from low flows over the last twenty years and high frictional forces or Mannings curve numerical levels. The rivers i am concerned about are primarily the Carmel Valley, Pajaro, Salinas, and Big Sur that all could approach bank full fairly easy with either agradation from sediment flushing off devoid burned slopes or impeded river flows from trees and bushes. I feel ok about the truckee and central valley flood situation due to snow level being just a hair high enough to avoid major melt off of sierra snow but that could change.
It also looks like the quickly weakening La Nina could allow the Madden Joulian to wake up very shortly and propagate east and settle more easterly than where it was locked up in the west pacific for most of last years super “dud” el nino. If and when it settles below Hawaii the wobbly polar vortices of this year should continue to detract from the north pole (negative phase AO and NAO) and create large oscillating planetary/ rossby waves that battle the North Pacific High resulting it to be undercut with tropical moisture entrained into the Atmospheric river pipeline with a bullseye on Central California! This is going to be awesome to watch unfold and nerve racking too!! Glad i dont live in a flood plane but i did lose most of my neighborhood and forest to the soberanes fire last summer and was worst thing i have ever been through to be honest!
cheers to fire floods and earthquakes (coming soon to LA), paul h
Thanks for your comment, Paul. I think we are all worried about the one coming in on Saturday thru Monday. I know I am. I feel like this first one is more of a dress rehearsal, so-to-speak. Thanks as always for your insight.
Just finished my drive down the coast this evening with plenty rain, and now a heavy southerly gale. So far the road was ok, but watch out for those dangerous scattered rocks that could blow out a tire, particularly around Big Creek and Limekiln (driving slow and careful saved me from that several times). As for the above comment, he means it…this is setting up to be an impressive event. Just take a look at the NWS satellite loop (Western U.S., water vapor, 16km animation). You can clearly see a big clockwise-rotating “Rex Block” high pressure area off the Canadian coast deflecting the jetstream southward, from Siberia and the Aleutians, right at California! On its way, it is passing Hawaii, collecting tropical moisture, then joining up with another “river” of moist tropical air coming right up from below Mexico. This big combined river of moist air is loaded with assorted storm cyclones (see the counterclockwise rotating spirals). As it all hits the mountains that oversaturated air is shoved upward causing it to cool off and shed all that moisture in torrential rain (or snow). This is the most classic example of “orographic convection” I have seen in a long time. I have stocked up and am going to “stay put” for a while. Take care and watch out!
I hear you, to be honest i think the next few might be dress rehearsal. By the fourth “Atmospheric River” storm the weekend after this (1/14-1/15) is when we begin to turn into an island and no one enters. If more storms transpire which the Climate Prediction Center is predicting in the 8-14 day outlook valid for Jan 12-19, i would put the Carmel Valley, Big Sur, Salinas, and maybe the very intriguing and complicated Pajaro River watershed in the flooding category. Nevertheless our smaller creeks like Rocky Creek are behaving very strange with last nights four inch rain completely jumping the bank and taking out the entire road near the creek crossing. This hasnt happened since major flooding rains in 1983 i think? It goes to show how much more water and how much higher the rivers and creeks are rising in the burn zone!! I cant imagine what 15-20 inches will do to the watershed as it tries to find an equilibrium. Major earth movements and landslides are usually how it finds that balance!!