Frankly, I don’t know who Paul H. Is, but he has been adding comments re the weather patterns and studying them, and I have come to believe he is either an amateur meterologist and/or a retired one. His predictions so far this winter have been incredibly accurate. This is his newest “take” on the situation we are all following so I share his latest with the rest of you from the comment section today:
“Hey Everyone and just another heads up that late today will be the beginning of a possible three week run of wet weather and the storm intensity could really ramp up toward the end of February. What looks to be happening is the active belt of thunderstorms along the equatorial or inter tropical convergance zone (MJO oscillation) is now propagating eastward from the west pacific/maratime area and around late Feb/early March will be acting up right below Hawaii where these atmospheric river storms have found a very comfortable path during this winter This will fuel the moisture feed even deeper into the tropics with very high pwats or rain rates. Moreover El Nino is now forming quickly and should anchor the jet stream in a south west trajectory supportive of a positive “Pacific North America Pattern”. Presently, it looks very similar to 1995 (big floods in March that year) teleconnection and ocean atmospheric coupling wise and i would not be at all surprised to see much wetter storms toward the end of month similar to the January storms earlier in the year. This Winter could get much crazier very soon and do not put your guard down after this next week of rain!! Nevertheless, “Major” landslide(s) similar to the 1983 humongous slide is definately a possibility soon as soils have reached super saturation!! Im hoping that nothing that big slides!!
Cheers to El Nino taking control now, paul h”
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Fascinating detailed weather report. I wonder if the author would share his background / level of expertise with this post. If he is right, we could have one hell of a rain year to deal with.
Paul H is more than likely a past resident of the Lucia area, offspring of Wilber Harlan an early pioneer who homesteaded there.
Maybe, will see ...
bigsurkate
Wow thank you so much for sharing that Kate. I'm sure many of us were hoping this upcoming system was going to be one of the last. Hope springs eternal, right? Better to be prepared than not!
You can really kiss the highway good bye if that forecast transpires. Hard to really predict that far out though.
I think the H in Paul H. is for H2O!
3 more weeks of rain! I hope not, but he does sound very knowledgeable. Good grief. Will there be anything left of Highway 1 if this prediction is true? There will be major problems, like they're not already, all over the place. Santa Cruz has also been hard hit.
from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php
end of paragraph 4: "another moisture surge into California is expected during the period."
Motors revving looks like we are going across the bridge!
Sent from my iPhone
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There were rain dances going on for the fire... did anybody tell them to stop dancing?
Had "my" meteorologist read the above forecast...
"Yes Paul H reads like a meteorologist..and the various patterns he mentioned are in the mainstream of extended weather forecasting... Anyway, Paul H's forecast for the next week or so is in line with the National Weather operational forecasts So standby for more rain and wind."
Sorry - wish I could say Paul H. was way off....
Batten down the hatches and
Get mules?!!!