Per Daniel Swain of Weather West:
“At the moment, it does appear that Southern (and possibly central California as far north as the Bay Area) may be in a generally favorable position to see occasional pulses of moisture and mid-level atmospheric instability over the next 2 weeks. This will probably lead to bouts of widespread mountain and desert thunderstorms, and probably at least a couple of shots at isolated thunderstorms across coastal areas. The timing is impossible to pin down at this point, as weak mesoscale disturbances rotating around the 4-Corners High will dictate the highest likelihood of thunderstorms. As usual, there will be some fire weather concerns associated with dry lightning (especially in the wake of our big heatwave).”
I’m sure you see it too Kate, but there are some t storms headed our way this Wed. morning. Visible on radar straight out of the south.
Yes, I am watching it move it…hoping no lightning…or if there is, it stays out over the ocean.
https://bigsurkate.blog
Completely overcast, but no rumblings, thus far. Had to charge my solar system with the genie this am.
https://bigsurkate.blog
Hello,
Daniel jumped the gun a bit on the monsoon forecast and it did not line up like i was observing with the four corner high bit too far east (similar to last year) and a trough impinging on the North Pacific High off the coast thus it did not support the clockwise flow (high pressure moves air this way while low pressure moves air counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) to the extent that it really picked up cumulus rain clouds and monsoonal moisture from Mexico and off the coast of Baja. This is fairly typical to not have monsoons reach Central coastal California till bit later in the summer and i have my eyes on next weekend July 15 when the Southern Sierras, Central Valley, and possibly the Coastal ranges should see there first “real” monsoon thunderstorm outbreak. This will coincide with another heat spell (7/15-7/19 or so) following a cooler week Monday thru Thursday (7/10-7/13). The east equatorial Pacific is still rather active thunderstorm wise with tropical storm Eugene forming rapidly but not expected to turn into a hurricane due to cooler sea surface temperatures, however the oceans should warm as our upwelling season diminishes along the west coast which will allow the depressions to hold together more as we approach the end of July and coupled with a strong four corners high and ridging off the pacific coast will be a perfect combination to bring severe thunderstorms up into California. I am also watching Micronesia closely to see how our Typhoon season is behaving and things could get really interesting around late August for Washington/Oregon and us (Central California) more in late September as the Pacific North America Pattern is finding a comfortable flow in the positive regime meaning a lower trajectory that supports post tropical storm transport to the West coast. So glad our burn scars have healed a bit!!
cheers to big sur not burning (yet), paul h
Paul, I have .09″ of rain for July – and King City got an unheard of .02″ so there was some monsoon effect here.
https://bigsurkate.blog