UPDATE; Early this am, John Lindsey wrote: “ Confidence continues to build that we will receive our first significant rain of the season on Nov. 3 and 4. These are long-range charts and may change.”
From John Lindsey, SLO meterologist:
“Confidence continues to build that we will receive our first significant rain of the season during the first week of Nov.,perhaps 2+ inches!”
If this pans out, keep an eye on Paul’s Slide…
Here is John’s graphic:
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From USFS: Timber Fire Publication Type: News - 08/30/2026 - 19:00 Timber Fire Crews had another strong…
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Looking at the satellite - North Pacific Water Vapor - 16km, one can get the idea of what is setting up. The huge high pressure area off the west coast is present over EASTPAC and behind it is an equally huge low pressure cyclonic trough, which was supercharged from that typhoon that passed by Japan. That typhoon was predicted to go north toward the Aleutians, but instead, it took a right turn and hit Hawaii, particularly, Maui. When that high pressure zone gradually moves eastward with the jetstream, that low pressure area will move in toward the West Coast. When it does, it has plenty of tropical moisture, reinforced by the typhoon remnants, and could set up a significant classic atmospheric river, like what we saw a lot last winter. The satellite animation is telling!
Oh, boy...thanks, Dave.
https://bigsurkate.blog
Kate,
PCB first challenge comes early; I hope it's ready but, the mega slide area on Hwy 1 & Cachagua slide repair project will sure be impacted! Those USGS devices better be in top shape!
Actually, the LIDAR was removed from Paul’s Slide August 5, and it was removed from Mud Creek last week when we lost 20 ft of beach. They got the equipment out, first.
https://bigsurkate.blog
Andrew...what is PCB? You've used it before...
That is Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge, the complete and official name of the bridge some call simply the Pfeiffer Bridge.
https://bigsurkate.blog
Kate,
Is the scary forecast still holding strong and how well do the new trails expect to stay in tact during this deluge?
The new trail is not open now that the bridge is, and will be taken out and rehabbed. Timing and amount of rain is still not certain. I have another forecast coming this evening.
https://bigsurkate.blog
Kate,
Could the trail be rehabbed for a safe passage for animal traffic?