Atmospheric River coming, 3/19/18

This does not bode well for any of us, but particularly for the fire areas of Santa Barbara. Time to get prepared. The rest of us will be slammed here on the Central and Southern Coasts, but oh, man, Santa Barbara County, my thoughts and prayers are with you. Please pack up and get out today.

By Daniel Swain of Weather West: “Upcoming storm event actually concerns me more than Jan 9 event, which resulted in the devastating #Montecito debris flow event downstream of #ThomasFire burn scar. It will be prolonged, and likely intense. Those in evacuation zones should leave Monday.#SantaBarbara #CAwx #CAfire”

From NWS-LA: “A significant storm system still on track to bring rain to #SoCal Tue-Thu! Flash flooding possible in many areas, flooding& debris flows possible near recent burn areas. #CAstorm #Cawx”

 

And from John Lindsey’s (SLO report): “At this time, total rainfall amounts of between 4 and 6 inches with higher amounts in the Santa Lucia Mountains is expected. Between 4 and 8 inches of rain could fall in the burn areas of Santa Barbara & Ventura counties
on Tuesday into Thursday. This potential situation will be to be monitored closely. snow levels will remain above 7,500 feet.”

Again, Daniel Swain: “”5σ PW anomalies” translates to “huge amount of water vapor in the column of air above your head, of a magnitude that is historically rare.” This is why there is so much concern regarding #ThomasFire burn scar in #SantaBarbara and #Ventura. #AtmosphericRiver

Note the following predictions are for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, posted in order. Mon Dieu!