Welcome to December! Here is John Lindsay’s weather forecast from yesterday:
“A low-pressure system and cold front will produce increasing southerly winds and will spread rain across the Central Coast later on Tuesday into Wednesday with rain showers on Thursday. Total rainfall amounts with this system should range between 1.00 and 2.50 inches. Snow elevations are expected to raise to 5,000 feet.
The long-range models are indicating wet and unsettled weather continuing through the first part of December. In fact, the long-range models are advertising a potentially stronger system moving into the Central Coast next weekend.”
From this morning’s NOAA forecast discussion:
“The last few GFS and Canadian runs have given up on rain chances for next weekend but the latest ECMWF still shows a chance of rain. Longer range guidance still honing in on additional systems around Dec 10-11th. The active and wet start to rainy season looks to continue.”
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Hi All,
Just wanted to highlight that the storm for next Monday 12/10 is looking less impressive than it did few days ago and the Arctic Oscillation is appearing to be shifting more in the positive regime supporting a more northerly jet stream into Oregon. Nevertheless, numerous global teleconnections are in place for the jet stream to fluctuate quite easily bringing large storms into the central coast. It appears as we head into the latter half of December the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO) will be active in the east to central equatorial Indian Ocean which should heighten the Asia Pacific Jet stream and a deeper positive Pacific North American pattern (PNA). Models then see the MJO propagating fairly quick through the east Indian Ocean due to colder sea surface temperatures around the Timor Sea and off the coast of northwest Australia. Furthermore things get extremely interesting as the MJO quickly oscillates into the Pacific ocean around mid December interacting with warmer sea surface temperatures below Hawaii possibly creating a 'Westerly wind burst" from strong thunderstorms and outflow. This would in affect slow the easterly/trade wind gradient further allowing the very warm oceanic kelvin wave to lift to the surface in the far east equatorial Pacific. This scenario has the potential to allow almost all teleconnective variables (e.g.+PNA, -AO,-NAO,+IOD, +ENSO east based, etc) to fall in place driving a very strong moisture rich "conveyor belt" parade of storms into the west coast of North America. The unstable weak polar vortices that is being predicted this Winter and West phase quasi bienniel oscillation (QBO) could be supportive elements in this progressing dynamic scenario too. Lastly, this major pattern shift affiliated with the above described usually occurs around beginning of January as the jet stream undercuts blocking in the northeast Pacific ocean and can lock in for several weeks or even multiple months so although not set in stone i would still take this winter serious and prepare.
Hey, Paul. Want to do a guest column on weather this winter? Perhaps on Wednesdays? I’ll contact you individually and see what would work.
https://bigsurkate.blog Do not forward, for intended, named recipient above, only.
Correction: meant MJO active in "west" Indian ocean not east
Hi Kate,
I will post here and there but i do not want to be obligated to weekly posts due to my busy schedule and everything else i have on my plate. Someday i hope to have a climate site that thoroughly presents climate facts, weather information and studies but hard to find time for everything. Thank you for your request though!
Sincerely, Paul
Okay, I just so enjoy your insights when you post them. I may copy and paste your comment (correcting East to West) with the NOAA expected rainfall maps tomorrow as a post, though!
https://bigsurkate.blog Do not forward, for intended, named recipient above, only.