Storm Watch #2, 1/11/19

10:30 pm – and it just won’t quit. Day one of ten…Mining Ridge, Chalk Peak, and Three Peaks are the ones you want to keep an eye on relative to Paul’s Slide and Mud Creek.

Drops started here 12:21 pm, and it was pouring by 12:39 pm. John Lindsey of SLO just sent out his new predictions, and it is looking pretty grim. Rather than the storms ending by next Friday, they are now extended into the MLK weekend. So, rain pretty much for the next 10 days, with a couple short breaks, like tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning.

Another cold front brings strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain this evening into Saturday morning. Total rainfall amounts with this system are expected to range between 0.75 and 1.75 inches. Snow levels remain generally above 6,000 feet as this system is not expected to bring a cold air mass.

A break in the rain is forecast on Saturday afternoon  into Sunday morning. A 538 dm upper-level trough of low-pressure along the California coastline will direct a series of surface lows and frontal systems into the Central Coast  starting Sunday evening into Thursday. These vigorous surface lows, fronts and troughs will produce a prolonged period of moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (34 to 46 mph with gust 55 mph) southerly winds along our coastline and heavy rain throughout the Central Coast,  especially along the southerly facing slopes.

Both the ECMWF & GFS model runs have increased cumulative rainfall totals. If these models verify, between 4 and 8 inches of rain is forecast this evening through next Thursday with Big Sur receiving as much as 1 foot of rain over this period. The heaviest rain is expected  on Wednesday. Please see https://twitter.com/pge_john for rainfall graphics.

Unsettled and wet weather is now forecast for much of the Martin Luther King holiday weekend with generally above average daily temperatures. (Here is the graphic he mentions.)