just wanted to highlight the wet Spring that i predicted in my last comment is approaching and Wednesday afternoon appears to be the beginning of a pretty dramatic weather pattern shift into a wet pattern (remember this is May so 2-3 inches of rain can be a lot or even record breaking). Right now it looks like the Central Sierra are going to see the brunt of precipitation but the storms are showing a more westerly angle compared to a northerly angle (inside slider systems are typical in Spring). The major teleconnective global parameters are the record weakening of the polar vortex for late April and different than the Jan Feb spit this one has triggered the North Atlantic Oscillation to dive into very deep negative values. This negative phase of the NAO and strong Greenland blocking has caused the Arctic Oscillation to move into negative values pulling the jet stream southward toward the mid latitudes, and with an active Madden Julien Oscillation in the Indian ocean and West Pacific equatorial region the positive phase of the Pacific North America Pattern continues to stay energized. This energy from the MJO is released by moving warm water rich cloud vapor northward from the equator into the southerly sub tropical branch of the jet stream in the North Pacific basin. Nevertheless some other teleconnections supporting this pattern but not scientifically proven yet is the West Phase of the Quasi Biennal phase, weak Walker Circulation or trade winds (easterlies), and solar minimum. From what im seeing the pieces are all falling into place for a very different pattern for late May than we have see since maybe 1998 when SF recorded 3.92 inches in May. Bottomline its starting to appear our fire season could get pushed back quite a bit into later Summer and some bizarre weather throughout California for May and into early June. Moreover its beginning to look like next Winter could extremely wet and stormy so might want to start preparing for an early start to wet season and could be a long one.
cheers to Spring rains coming, Paul
Loading...
interesting read .. some terminology to look up .. my “old Wx Man” is floating somewhere on the Mississippi River – hopefully in Steamboat! lol
Loading...
Hello Again,
Models and satellite imagery is coming into agreement that we are indeed in store for possible “record” breaking rains “For May” the next couple weeks along the central coast with possibly multiple storms after the Wednesday night thru Friday morning storm(5/15-5/17). This is a very interesting pattern and honestly the most abnormal i have seen since a typhoon extra tropical Low (storm) dumped 10 inches of rain over Miners ridge in very early October 2011- if i recall correctly. This pattern about to unfold does appear like a climate change influenced event with the polar vortices becoming increasingly unstable as our equatorial oceans and air warms with higher carbon levels. This global warming is driving the earths warmest equatorial air in thermodynamic fashion further northward than we have seen in the past and causing the polar vortices to wobble around more. This wobble allows colder air to flow more freely southward and energizing the northern hemispheres jet stream dynamics. If your interested in further reading and understanding of this phenomena Judah Cohen (Judah Cohen Twitter), an atmospheric science PhD has dedicated his life recently to studying and conveying this science of how the unstable polar vortices is impacting mid latitude weather in areas like the Midwest or Central California. Bottomline might want to hold off on the grading of dirt roads for the next couple weeks and cover up any building materials or items you do not want to get wet.
Cheers, Paul
Loading...
Correction on the Typhoon Low that rained 10+ inches over the southcoast in early October occurred not in 2011 but i think 2008 or 2009? I need to check my records to confirm exact date. Sorry about mis information.
Hello All,
just wanted to highlight the wet Spring that i predicted in my last comment is approaching and Wednesday afternoon appears to be the beginning of a pretty dramatic weather pattern shift into a wet pattern (remember this is May so 2-3 inches of rain can be a lot or even record breaking). Right now it looks like the Central Sierra are going to see the brunt of precipitation but the storms are showing a more westerly angle compared to a northerly angle (inside slider systems are typical in Spring). The major teleconnective global parameters are the record weakening of the polar vortex for late April and different than the Jan Feb spit this one has triggered the North Atlantic Oscillation to dive into very deep negative values. This negative phase of the NAO and strong Greenland blocking has caused the Arctic Oscillation to move into negative values pulling the jet stream southward toward the mid latitudes, and with an active Madden Julien Oscillation in the Indian ocean and West Pacific equatorial region the positive phase of the Pacific North America Pattern continues to stay energized. This energy from the MJO is released by moving warm water rich cloud vapor northward from the equator into the southerly sub tropical branch of the jet stream in the North Pacific basin. Nevertheless some other teleconnections supporting this pattern but not scientifically proven yet is the West Phase of the Quasi Biennal phase, weak Walker Circulation or trade winds (easterlies), and solar minimum. From what im seeing the pieces are all falling into place for a very different pattern for late May than we have see since maybe 1998 when SF recorded 3.92 inches in May. Bottomline its starting to appear our fire season could get pushed back quite a bit into later Summer and some bizarre weather throughout California for May and into early June. Moreover its beginning to look like next Winter could extremely wet and stormy so might want to start preparing for an early start to wet season and could be a long one.
cheers to Spring rains coming, Paul
interesting read .. some terminology to look up .. my “old Wx Man” is floating somewhere on the Mississippi River – hopefully in Steamboat! lol
Hello Again,
Models and satellite imagery is coming into agreement that we are indeed in store for possible “record” breaking rains “For May” the next couple weeks along the central coast with possibly multiple storms after the Wednesday night thru Friday morning storm(5/15-5/17). This is a very interesting pattern and honestly the most abnormal i have seen since a typhoon extra tropical Low (storm) dumped 10 inches of rain over Miners ridge in very early October 2011- if i recall correctly. This pattern about to unfold does appear like a climate change influenced event with the polar vortices becoming increasingly unstable as our equatorial oceans and air warms with higher carbon levels. This global warming is driving the earths warmest equatorial air in thermodynamic fashion further northward than we have seen in the past and causing the polar vortices to wobble around more. This wobble allows colder air to flow more freely southward and energizing the northern hemispheres jet stream dynamics. If your interested in further reading and understanding of this phenomena Judah Cohen (Judah Cohen Twitter), an atmospheric science PhD has dedicated his life recently to studying and conveying this science of how the unstable polar vortices is impacting mid latitude weather in areas like the Midwest or Central California. Bottomline might want to hold off on the grading of dirt roads for the next couple weeks and cover up any building materials or items you do not want to get wet.
Cheers, Paul
Correction on the Typhoon Low that rained 10+ inches over the southcoast in early October occurred not in 2011 but i think 2008 or 2009? I need to check my records to confirm exact date. Sorry about mis information.
Paul