Weather Predictions, 1/22/21

7:30 pm — Note: the .67” thus far at Chalk Peak — in or near the burn area of Dolan Fire. There has also already been a mud flow on the River Fire burn area about 6 pm tonight.

Interesting comments from Daniel Swain: “Models appear to be honing on the increasing potential for a slow-moving/stalled #AtmosphericRiver somewhere in CA between SF and LA mid next week. That would lead to potentially significant flash flood risk, especially if this happens near recent burn scars. Stay tuned. “

It’s still early, but there are increasing signs that a strong, dynamic, & cold storm could affect CA toward middle of next wk. Heavy rainfall, very heavy mountain snowfall, & strong winds poss. Could be issues w/2020 burn scar flood/debris flow risk, esp. Santa Cruz Mtns.

And John Lindsey adds this: “An intense low-pressure system will produce fresh gale-force to whole gale-force (47 to 63 mph) southerly winds with gusts to 70 mph and periods of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday through Friday morning as a possible Atmospheric River (AR) taps into subtropical moisture. Total rainfall amounts with this storm could range between 3.00 and 5.00 plus inches.