Upcoming Weather

Pay attention to the “just silly” statement re the 10 inches of rain in 5 days. That being said, the Santa Lucias along the Big Sur coast score big once again. From NOAA/NWS Monterey Bay:

While the NBM low end scenario seems more reasonable
with 0.5-1.0" across the region, the high end remains outrageous.
The NBM 90% percentile accumulation is suggesting widespread
totals of greater than 10 inches along the coast, with up to 24
inches in the Santa Lucia Mountains. Meanwhile the global
ensembles are showing a much tighter spread. Take SFO for example.
All 30 members of the GEFS and all 50 of the ECMWF EPS are
between 0.75 and 3.5 inches. Even in a historical context, San
Francisco has never experienced more than 10 inches of rain over
a 5 day period since record keeping began in 1849. To say that
there is a 10% chance that this system will bring more rain than
the area has seen since the gold rush era is just silly. A more
reasonable high end scenario is 3-5 inches for most coastal areas,
with 4-6 in the mountains and 2-3 in some of the rain shadow
areas. This is only about an inch above the deterministic
forecast, which lies on the high end of guidance.