NWS Weather – next storm series

It is important to realize that any time rain "causes" a slope failure, that a lot of preconditions need to be in place, and that the rain is "the last straw." Most of us are so intuitively aware of this that we fail to recognize the importance of the state of such precursors. No one can predict WHEN such an event will occur. We forget (enter fallacy) that "correlation does not imply causation." Rain adds weight, "lubricates" (reduces friction/resistance), and adds to the force exerted on particles/mass when it is free (saturated) of capillary attraction helping hold soil particles together (e.g., sand castles).

Something like (but not literally) a cocked gun's trigger that sets in motion a sequence of events that sets off the round, sending the bullet through the barrel with catastrophic effects. Not all of today's guns work that way, however. Some have safeties that keep the trigger from being pulled--provided that the safety says on. But the gun is still loaded--the POTENTIAL is still there. A friend's young son was killed when something brushed against the "safety" on his shotgun and something else brushed against the trigger.

Is hope a strategy?