El Niño Predictions

From NOAA and the National Weather Service

. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the onset of El Niño conditions.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], forecasts El Niño to intensify into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. High confidence in El Niño [Fig. 7] is also linked to anomalously high oceanic heat content and expanding westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January [Fig. 8] that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.