Warnings & Predictions, 2/3/24

Evacuation map of South Coast:

Evacuation Map of Monterey County:

link to evacuation map: https://bit.ly/3Za0Xc0

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From Daniel Swain, Weather West blog post:

On the precipitation front he wrote this: “Why is this storm going to be so unusual? There are a range of factors that have to line up for rapid cyclogenesis to occur close to the CA coast, and they don’t align often. One is robust “baroclinic instability”–a kind of atmospheric instability that derives from the potential energy contained by the atmospheric flow in an environment of strong horizontal air temperature differentials (this is the kind of potential energy that essentially all winter storms draw upon, but the California coast is not generally a favorable region for this to occur to a substantial degree). Additionally, the region will be in a relatively conductive position relative to a strong Pacific jet streak aligned over Central CA. This configuration, including the presence of upper divergence, allows for “ventilation” at upper levels of the atmosphere right above the low pressure center–which facilitates deepening/evacuation of air from the low itself and enhancing its cyclonic spin. This powerful low is also tapping into some deep subtropical moisture, and the circulation around this system will aim that plume squarely at central and southern California. Due to these additional factors, this event may end up punching well above its weight on the 5-category atmospheric river scaling system.” (https://weatherwest.com/archives/35471)

On the wind front he had this to say: “Again, there is still a substantial range–but since multiple models are now indicating gusts of 70-85 mph out over open water west of Monterey County, it’s highly plausible that gusts at least that strong could mix down to the surface near the coast and over ridgelines, and locally elsewhere in pretty widespread fashion. (A few classically windy places on more remote higher ridgelines that often see high winds could potentially see 90+ mph gusts, though gusts that high are very unlikely where people actually live.) More widespread wind gusts of 55-70 mph are likely across much of the Central Coast, SF & Monterey Bay Areas, and near the I-80 corridor in the Central Valley (including Sacramento).” (https://weatherwest.com/archives/35471)

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Will start off with this high wind warning from the NWS and this precipitation prediction made by KION, and add information as it becomes available and the day progresses.

And this came from KION earlier this morning (5:30 am)