Our own local USFS fire captain, Michael Boone is retiring at the end of the year!! Wow. He’s been here forever, supporting locals and our values, and providing insight and cooperation between the USFS and local inholders. Michael you have been invaluable, and will be sorely missed. Please stop by the PV Station and wish Michael well as he leaves us. Goodbye Michael. I wish you the best in your retirement!!

I’v e only missed a handful of BSMAAC meetings in the 23 years I’ve lived here, but today’s meeting was truly fascinating! It was not very well attended. I will report the “facts” tomorrow. So … until tomorrow, bigsurkate, taking the night off.

Oh, and keep an eye on weather reports. At the moment, 1/2 inch expected on Sunday.

 

Sunset Pine, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

Tonight’s sunset.

For this afternoon’s forecast discussion, see prior post. This COULD get very interesting this weekend and early next week.

BTW, tomorrow I have the BSMAAC meeting to attend, AND it is our annual ladies holiday luncheon at the Post Ranch Inn. So, guess who will not be watching the weather until evening?

Okay, here is this afternoon’s forecast discussion:

THE UPSHOT IS THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 
TIMEHEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDC THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...
SO HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FCST. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO AS LOW
AS 1000 FEET AT TIMES SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE CONVECTION. 
TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE DISTRICT 
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL VARY ANYWHERE 
FROM 1500 TO 2500 FEET...AND DOWN TO 1000 FEET AT TIMES. WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND 
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SNOW ON THE BAY AREA HILLS...
POSSIBLY AFFECTING ROADS IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND THE 
NORTH BAY HILLS. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES THE DETAILS SHOULD 
BECOME CLEARER CONCERNING SNOW LEVELS AND HOW MUCH SNOW IN THE 
HILLS.

I am waiting for the afternoon models to be analyzed, but until then, this was posted for the 9 am discussion:

"TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DRY AND WARM DAY FOR QUITE A WHILE."
So, whatever you do, ENJOY!

And here’s the most recent discussion (3 am) from NWS:

LATEST MODELS BRING THE FIRST CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES 
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES 
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD JUST SKIRTING THE WEST COAST. THE ENTIRE 
DISTRICT WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON 
SATURDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
THE NORTH. THE COOL AND SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED 
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS 700 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER 
TO MINUS 16 DEGREES AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP 
AS LOW AS 526 MB...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
 2000-3000 FEET OR LOWER BY TUESDAY.

 COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST BEYOND MIDWEEK AS THE
 DISTRICT REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

Well, snow probable for this weekend down to 2000 ft. with a mixture of snow and rain expected at even lower elevations. Possibility of thundershowers. Rain showers in the forecast from Saturday through Wednesday of next week. Here are parts of the report from NWS:

AS OF 3:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MAJOR CHANGE IN THE
 WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 2000
 FEET WITH MIXING POSSIBLE AT EVEN LOWER LEVELS.
ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS AGREE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
 WILL MAKE ITS WAY HERE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ON
 FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH
 AND BY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY THE CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD
 CHANCE OF PICKING UP SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE MODELS
 CURRENTLY SHOWING BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED
 IN URBAN LOCATIONS AND UP TO HALF AN INCH OVER FAVORED TERRAIN. THE
 STORMY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
 HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
 DROP DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED AT EVEN
 LOWER LEVELS. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 700 MB TEMPERATURES
 DOWN TO MINUS 16 THAT WOULD BRING A DEFINITE MIX TO AS LOW AS 1000
 FEET IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. WHO KNOWS...MAYBE THE TWIN PEAKS WILL
 EVEN SEE A BRIEF MIX. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS LIFTED VALUES NEAR ZERO SO
 WE MAY EVEN GET A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER OUT OF THIS. INTERESTINGLY...
 LOOKING FURTHER OUT SHOWS A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH THE
 ECMWF/GDAPS/CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
 THE GFS KEEPS US DRY. INCLINATION IS TO FAVOR THE WETTER MODELS AS
 CPC SHOWS US WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6 THROUGH 14
 WITH A GOOD CONFIDENCE LEVEL. WINTER IS FINALLY ARRIVING.
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Looks like this weekend will bring snow to the Santa Lucia Mountains. Predictions are to as low as 2000 feet. Since I am at 3272 ft., chances are looking pretty good that I will wake up to snow one day this weekend. I always love that first snow, as long as I do not have to drive in it!

Anyone remember (last year?) the snow along Highway One near Deetjen’s? I think it was last year, but maybe the year before. Not long ago, in any event! Or the time, many years ago when it snowed on Carmel Beach? I’ll be sure and post a photograph or two!!

Keep an eye out for rainfall predictions, too!

From the NWS:

...MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER
WEATHER STARTING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SHOWERS...

AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA...SEVERAL WARMER DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THESE MILDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FIRST SHOT OF COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE AT LEAST TWO ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
DROP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
OUR ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST
HOW COLD AND SHOWERY IT WILL GET...AT THIS TIME IT DOES LOOK LIKELY
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2000 FEET
AND PROVIDE PRECIPITATION TO OUR ENTIRE AREA.

Only 3 things on Friday’s agenda:

V.            OLD BUSINESS                                                         

1.  Update on Monterey County Ambulance RFP                        Tom Lynch, County EMS

VI.            NEW BUSINESS

1.  Review of Highway Closure Communication Protocol            Caltrans staff

2.  Update on post fire water quality monitoring program            National Marine Sanctuary

Also a reminder from a BSVFB member (see comment on Weather Watch post for full information): In case of an emergency, call 911, not your neighbor fire brigade member, or EMT, or CHP. Calling 911 directly, speeds response time, considerably, as the neighbor YOU call, still has to call it in to 911.

Per Kathy Good, LPNS PIO, Goleta, CA:

Recent rains and cooler weather has reduced the risk of wildfires in Los Padres National Forest, and the Forest Service will lower fire restrictions effective December 5.  In addition, the closure prohibiting public entry to portions of the Monterey Ranger District has been modified to allow access to some areas of the forest.

Starting Friday, campfires and charcoal barbecues will be allowed in all areas of Los Padres National Forest.  A California Campfire Permit, available free of charge, is required to build a campfire outside of a designated Campfire Use Site.  A list of Campfire Use Sites and information about how to acquire a campfire permit is available at all Los Padres National Forest offices and on-line at www.fs.fed.us/r5/lospadres.    

Even though fire restrictions are being reduced for the winter months, Forest Supervisor Peggy Hernandez issued a reminder that fire season is year-round in Los Padres National Forest.  

“History has shown us that we can experience a major wildland fire at anytime during the year,” said Hernandez.  “A few days of hot, dry and windy weather could mean the return of very dangerous fire conditions.”

Due to safety hazards resulting from the Basin, Indians and Chalk Fires, most of the Monterey Ranger District, including the entire Ventana Wilderness, will remain closed to public entry through the winter.  Hazards include falling trees and limbs, rockslides, and the potential for mudslides and flash flooding.  

The following areas of the Monterey Ranger District will remain open:

• Campgrounds, day use areas and forest lands west of Highway 1 along the Big Sur Coast

• Plaskett Creek campground

• Nacimiento-Fergusson Road and Ponderosa campground

• the Silver Peak Wilderness

• South Coast Ridge Road south of its junction with Prewitt Road (South Coast Ridge Road will remain closed from Prewitt Road north to Nacimiento-Fergusson Road.)

• the Arroyo Seco campground and day use area

For more information regarding the closure and conditions on the Monterey Ranger District, contact the King City office of the Forest Service at (831) 385-5434.

Raw Power, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

The waves were awesome today, so I will post a few of the shots I took.