The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the 2020 Dolan, River and Carmel Fire Burn Areas as well as the 2021 Willow Fire Burn Areas in Effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch includes a portion of northern California including the following areas, Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest with Lingering showers on Monday. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings are issued. More Info: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=62818668

“but also high risk of burn area flooding/debris flows“

From Daniel Swain’s Weather West blog (read the entire post here: weatherwest.com/archives/11466)

“In Northern California, it has been a good old rainy week. Many spots have seen a couple inches or more; nearly everywhere has seen at least enough for some modest puddles. In some areas, the amount of rain that has already fallen is probably enough to greatly attenuate or end fire season. “

“…one of the strongest October storms in some years (perhaps a decade or more in some NorCal locations) will likely occur on Sunday. This moisture delivery system will be in the form of a strong atmospheric river.” 

“Stormy conditions are expected to begin early Sunday and ramp up through the day in NorCal. “

“Very intense rainfall rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour will be possible for a couple of hours“

Daniel Swain is the man weather wise. He just posted this on twitter:
Seeing a “category 5” #AtmosphericRiver in central California in Oct would be extremely impressive, yet that’s looking increasingly possible on Sunday. With record-dry soils, impacts will be different than mid- winter event. Risks highest near wildfire burn areas.  #CAwx #CAfire

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Open letter to Dear Frank Linnenbrink from Lucas Ryan. If you don’t know Frank, he is one of the kindest people you’ve ever met. Thank you Lisa, and everyone who is caring for Frank.

Frank, you are always there for us. Thank you for taking us to Church. We will always think, what would Frankie do? With so much love, thank you! We appreciate you, words cannot describe, actually, completely shattered right now.

Please, ride on! (so fast) We’ll be catching up withyou soon (no chance)

(Frank worked as a lineman for PG&E for many years. We rode motorcycles together. He actually married my wife and I, and many others. Frank is an all-life minister, and popular amongst the Big Sur community. Please send thoughts and prayers, as he is in the late stages of battling a serious illness. Frankie passed away around 11:45 pm, October 20th -Lucas Ryan)

My eye is still recovering from surgery, so my eyesight is still impaired. Because of that, unless Lucas Ryan can help, I won’t be able to track these approaching storms much. Here is a start, though:

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
154 PM PDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably cool and unsettled weather conditions
will continue through the upcoming weekend as a series of storms
impact the region. Lingering light to occasionally moderate rain
will continue through Wednesday with the the next storm system
arriving late Thursday into Friday. A final and rather potent
storm system looks to arrive late in the upcoming weekend with
gusty winds and potentially significcant rainfall

In corridors or waiting rooms of a VA hospital … can be a long wait filled with concern.

Two weeks ow waiting for eye surgery in one eye and shots in the other. Now, it will be two weeks of waiting in my recovery. The blog will not be a priority during this time. I have been having difficulty for a while now, and thus the typos. You may have to point them out to me.

I am going to learn to water color, (Abstracts anyone?) because…why not?

Take more photographs and look for the simple, easy, composition shots, like above.

Lady as my guide dog in training, so she can go everywhere with me!

And I will learn to appreciate audio books, even with my hearing problems.

I will stay positive that I will be able to get through that stack of books next to my bed, eventually, but tol start, I ordered the one I was reading before in an audio book.

There is a fascinating discussion of this subject back in 1978 in the Big Sur Gazette.. The archives of these gazettes are listed in my links to the right, but to get you interested in going back in time to look at our history, here is a report on a meeting held at the Grange by John Harlan back 43 years ago. Fascinating read.

http://www.bigsurgazette.com/issues/005_December_1978.pdf

Make sure you scroll down to page 6 to see:

Will Big Sur’s History Survive?

A little change of pace. Sent to me by Nadine who got it from Barbara Ray. I was told it was from 1960.

Red Flag Warning from 10/11/2021 5:00 AM to 10/12/2021 5:00 PM PDT for Monterey County. More information: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=62572650

The US National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey California has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty north to northeast winds and low humidity, which is in effect from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Tuesday.

AFFECTED AREA: Santa Lucia Mountains, Los Padres National Forest, Pinnacles National Park, Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County.

DESCRIPTION: A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now…or will shortly. A combination of strong winds…low relative humidity…and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.

IMPACTS: Any fire starts would likely see rapid spread due to dry fuels, low humidity and gusty winds. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

To continue last week’s theme…a few more black and whites from my archives.

Cooling trend today as onshore flow will increaseahead of an incoming cold front. Dry cold front will push through the region overnight into Wednesday with inland areas cooling to well below normal. Continued breezy and cool Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers for the Central Coast as the upper low moves inland while the Bay Area remains dry. High pressure briefly rebuilds over the weekend with a warming trend before another cold trough arrives early next week.