8:00 pm – internet difficulties (due to power to the booster) kept me from getting online this afternoon. Snow stopped about 3:30 pm, and never really accumulated much. I’ll bet Cone Peak is really pretty — if I could see it, that is! Road photos tomorrow if internet allows.

12:30 pm – a bit of accumulation, but not enough to make a worthwhile shot, yet. If it does, you can bet I’ll have my camera on it!

11:30 am – nothing the last 2 hours, but the REAL snow has finally hit!! Woohoo! A snow storm!!

9:30 am – the snow started. Let’s see if it keeps up. It is only very, very light, and I wouldn’t have known if I hadn’t seen the flakes on my black sweater!

8 am – I know. My titles are boring. I was going to try more creative ones, but then, I needed to go through my Chalk Fire archives, and it was a piece of cake, because of my titles by subject and day. I realized it would behoove me to stick with storm watch, if that was the subject, and the date, so that I can locate these easily in future years.

It began to rain around 2 am here, with heavy showers between 2:30 am and 3:00 am, and I received 1.25 inches by first light. While there are clouds both overhead and on the western horizon, there is also blue sky at the moment. NOAA discussion states: “AS OF 3:42 AM PST TUESDAY…SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000 FEET IN MONTEREY COUNTY.”

The discussion goes on to say: “AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED OVER MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST. ACCORDING TO THE 0900 UTC RUC ANALYSIS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BRUSH BY THIS AREA DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO 3000 FEET AND LOCALLY TO 2500 FEET DURING PERIODS WHEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FALLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS PROMPTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 3000 FEET IN THIS AREA.”

I am at 3272 ft. so that could make for an interesting day. I will keep any interested readers posted throughout the day, with photos, if possible.

*ROAD UPDATE* The slip out just south of Lucia Lodge is indeed only one lane, but work going on out there. There are stop signs and flaggers during the day, but no signal light as of yet. I have some photos I will try to post later today. Shale Point slip out is almost finished, and most of the equipment has been removed from up top, so both lanes are open. The horizontal drains north of Ragged Point are still being installed, and that is one lane with flagging during the day until the end of the month. Of course, the signal light for the one lane is still present at Rain Rocks, and will remain until 2014 while work continues on the rock shed and the bridge. However, there are no more night road closures.

at 1 pm, Monday CT issued their news release re the Sat nite slip out:

Today’s Date: Monday, February 8, 2010
District: 05 – Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, San Benito and Santa
Cruz Counties

Contact: Susana Z Cruz (bilingual) or Colin Jones
Phone: (805) 549-3138 or (805) 549-3189
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

SOUTHBOUND LANE OF HWY. 1 CLOSED SOUTH OF LUCIA

MONTEREY COUNTY – The southbound lane of Hwy. 1 south of Lucia is closed for approximately 200 feet due to storm related damage to the shoulder of the highway. The northbound lane of traffic remains open.

Temporary guardrail has been placed along the shoulder of the southbound lane with stop signs on either end. Motorists will use one-way reversing traffic control via stop signs which will be in place 24/7 until further notice.

Motorists can expect a minimal delay.

All businesses in the area remain open to the public.

From NOAA discussion: “DISCUSSION…AS OF 3:00 AM PST MONDAY… EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT AND COOL WEATHER SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ALL DROP THIS SYSTEM TO THE SSE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS… THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ON TUESDAY. THE NAM FORECASTS SFC-BASED CAPE OF NEARLY 300 J/KG JUST OFF THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST AT 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE…AND SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS FORECAST BY THE CNRFC ARE IN THE ONE-TENTH TO HALF INCH RANGE…WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAIN RANGES….[and] A SNOW LEVEL OF BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTH ON TUESDAY.”

Woohoo! Looks like I might have snow on tomorrow!

I just called the Cal-Trans Hotline to see what information they provide, and as I expected, they are not current. What she does is read the Press Releases already issued, and of course, press releases are not issued on weekends, so there will not be an “official” notification of the roadway problem mentioned below until tomorrow morning. In light of that fact, I have taken the number off my notices sticky post above.

Breaking news from the South Coast: Much of the south bound lane of Highway One just south of Lucia Lodge has fallen into the ocean. Cal-Trans works diligently to hold the line, and keep the north bound lane open.

This report and photos just in from Avis Latone:

“Talked to Danny Milsap this morning and I also attached some shots.
As you can see in the pics we did lose the south bound lane here just south of Lucia Lodge. They have stop signs installed and are waiting for traffic lights. Hopefully they will be here soon. They have some k-rails in place to make it a single lane. The north bound lane is cracked too. Danny said they are going to fill the north bound lane and not bother with just putting mix down as it’s moving to rapidly for that. He hopes by doing the fill they will be able to save the north bound lane. Or hold it long enough until the state decides what they will do to repair it completely.
I know nothing official has been posted yet but this is the situation as of 10:00am on Sunday February 7, 2010.
Avis Latone”

Here are the photos she took this morning, only 1/2 hour ago:

I will be adding 3 more shots, but wanted to get this posted quickly.

And another local reports she was able to get down Nasty-Fergy to get to work, but states that there are two mudslides, both requiring 4×4. The first is just down from Lion’s Creek and it is about 8 inches of silt. The second is the next curve down. She STRONGLY advises that only locals attempt this road in its current condition.

*ROADS UPDATE*: NACIMIENTO-FERGUSSON CLOSED LAST NIGHT BELOW LION’S CREEK ON THE COASTAL SIDE DUE TO MUDSLIDES, PER TWO LOCAL RESIDENTS. IT IS NOT YET LISTED ON THE COUNTY WEBSITE.

This afternoon’s NOAA update: “AS OF 2:20 PM PST SATURDAY…SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT….A STRONG CELL OVER FAR SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY…AND A FREEZING LEVEL DOWN TO 4000 FEET IN SHOWERS…MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH IS STILL SLATED FOR BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM.”

I can tell you that even though my thermometer says 50, it feels more like 30, with the wind. 3 pairs of socks, a heavy head scarf, two sweaters, and a pair of knit gloves. And when that doesn’t work, I crawl under the down comforter!

NOAA report: “DISCUSSION…AS OF 8:30 AM PST SATURDAY…SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY….EVEN THOUGH TIMING IS NOT NAILED DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY ONWARD THAT WE WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH NONE OF THESE UPCOMING SYSTEMS LOOK EXTREMELY STRONG AT THIS TIME…SEVERAL ROUND OF RAINFALL ON ALREADY WET SOIL COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.

My blog titles are getting a little boring, no? I’ll come up with something better tomorrow … maybe. It started raining down here around 3 am and rained until about 8 am. I got a total of 1.65 inches, for a season total of 46.5. I highest season I remember recording was over 90 inches. I really do need to find all my old calendars!

9 pm – I don’t know about that storm that is supposed to come in tonight — the stars are out tonight, at least some of them!

6 pm – a mixed bag today, even got a little sunshine, but not for long. All clouded up for the next one, but no additional rain today. Have a good evening, everyone.

7 am-Wow! Rain total from last night? A whopping 3.5 inches! Whew! How did you fare? Season total 44.85 inches, and Big Sur Valley got 2.2 inches. And Mining Ridge got almost 5 inches! It is still raining here, but sounds as if it is stopping, or slowing, in any event.

From this morning’s NOAA discussion: “A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND MOVES IN SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON …SPREADING SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS NEXT WAVE IS CLOSER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER …THUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. QPF WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS WHAT WAS RECEIVED TODAY WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.”

As of 9:30 pm, it looks like 3/4 of an inch, but I can’t be sure in the dark. Will post total when it is light.

And for those who have been following the George Carpenter story, 3 volunteers from the SLO 4×4 club came up with a flat bed trailer today and gathered George’s truck up. They were followed by members of George’s family. The family realized that George could have no better resting place than the one he found. He chose his final home, here in the mountains of the South Coast of Big Sur.

Pretty significant rain here for the past couple of hours. Here is the 7:30 Nexrad Map:

4:30 Nexrad Map:

Today’s Cal-Trans update, and all future ones, unless an emergency closure, have been moved to the Cal-Trans page to the right.

As of 3:30 this afternoon, the rain has started here, and it is quite cold, ranging around 44 degrees. A bit of wind to top it off. Looks like a blustery evening ahead!

DISCUSSION…AS OF 8:50 AM PST THURSDAY…MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE DEVELOPING RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

A SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH 130W WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH SATURDAY….PRECIP WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE N BAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY DO AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE PRECIP CHC FOR MOST LOCATIONS N OF SAN JOSE. AS FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS…INITIALLY QPF WILL BE LIGHT BUT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THECOLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

DOING A BLEND OF REALITY AND MODEL FORECAST WOULD PUT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY… A MORE SHOWERY SET UP WILL FOLLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE TO TREND TOWARD SHOWERS FOR THE FRIDAY FORECAST. IN ADDITION…SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DROP LATER FRIDAY WITH A FEW PLACES OVER 4500 FT IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY SEEING SOME WET SNOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY…TO 0.5-1.5 INCHES IN THE BAY AREA…TO 0.25-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. FOR MANY OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN FAVORED SPOTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. EXPECT AN UPDATE SHORTLY.

Debbie Reed so kindly sent me the following photos so all my interested readers can see the repair work going on to shore up the bank of the river to prevent undermining Highway One. Thanks, Debbie! You are the best!

And there you have it, and after all the hoopla, Cal-Trans and PG&E were able to work it out, move the polls (that should be “poles” — thanks, Simon), and not make everyone go without electricity for 8 hours a day for two weeks! Where there is a will … or a lot of screaming customers!

I knew we were in for 6 more weeks of winter, and even wrote that on my Modern Homesteader page, but now that is confirmed:
www.huffingtonpost.com
Most local groundhogs did not see their shadows on Groundhog Day 2010, even though the most famous one of all did. Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day 2010 prediction was six more weeks of winter, as he did see his shadow.

Sprinkles last night around 5:15 pm, but didn’t amount to much. Just enough to need to cover the gennie. And despite the forecast below, it doesn’t look like rain up here today. Scattered high clouds and sunshine is what I see.

NOAA forecast discussion: “AS OF 9 AM PST TUESDAY…WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCING…SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN AREA FROM SW OF MONTEREY BAY NORTHEAST THROUGH PITTSBURG…. OTHERWISE…EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRECIP IS STILL FORECAST TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

AS OF NOW…THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER MOVES IN THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A GOOD SOAKING RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE.