1 pm – There it is. Just before 1 pm, the rain has come. Not drizzle, not wetness, real honest-to-goodness rain. Now the question becomes, how much will we get? Yesterday at 5 pm I only got 1/10th of an inch. This seems more significant based on what I see and hear, as well as what the radar shows. Thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon and this evening.
The first photograph below is one of the ones I took day before yesterday, during the record-breaking heat. Nothing like the sight or sound of the waves to cool one down. Of course, yesterday, it was even hotter in many places. I am hoping today brings us all relief. My favorite weather person wrote that it was 102 in Carmel, and 71 in Monterey. Go figure!
And last night, what I hope is the sunset on the hottest days of the year!
Update: High clouds have moved into the area, and the light has changed. One friend in Carmel Valley reports outside temperatures at his house reached 116.6. That’s just too hot by anyone’s standards!
11 am update: “WARM START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING 4 TO 7 DEGREES AHEAD OF VALUES YESTERDAY….COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING ON WEDNESDAY… HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE UP TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR COASTAL SPOTS AND LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AND BE LOCALLY BREEZY….NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING ON THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOCAL COAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVERHEAD MOVES OFF TO THE EAST…. CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER…THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
There is a weather watch for a chance of lightning in SoCal during this same period, but not probable.
I did not want to see this NOAA report this morning. It was too hot to sleep. Too hot to work, play, or do anything but sit under the garden hose, which is on today’s agenda. Here’s the report:
ONE MORE HOT DAY TODAY…
…COOLING TREND BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY…
.DISCUSSION…AS OF 3:40 AM PDT TUESDAY…CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE MOSTLY WEAK OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS AND THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IS A FEW DEGREES C WARMER. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST TODAY WILL BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY FOR INLAND AREAS…OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
I skipped #5. I figured we need a photo to change the pace a bit, but will be sticking with reporting for the few days.
I will be keeping a close eye on this weather event and concentrating on reporting anything of interest. NOAA is predicting temps of 108 in the inland areas of Monterey County on Monday and there are red flag alerts for LA and Ventura Co. Some of our local CALFIRE crews headed down south for staging in anticipation of the conditions.
Despite the heat wave that is arriving over the next few days, it was quite chilly at dawn today up here. I treasured it, seeing where the temperatures are headed.
From NOAA at 9 am this morning: “A SMALL UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS…PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WATER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AT THE COAST WITH 80S TO MID 90S INLAND.
AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR MULTIPLE DAYS…EVEN HOTTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE [AREA]. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT INLAND SPOTS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 90S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 100S…WHAT THERE IS STILL LESS AGREEMENT ON IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST.
Oh, and I believe this is the last weekend of hunting season. Oh, joy!
AS OF 8:45 AM PDT THURSDAY.TODAY WILL ALSO MARK THE TRANSITION TO A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP FOR THE SF/MONTEREY BAY REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH…. LOOK FOR A 5 TO 10 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW…. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHIFT WILL BE JUST HOW WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT BC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ECMWF RUNNING WELL ABOVE EVERY MODEL (RECORD HIGHS ARE INDICATED BY MONDAY). IN ADDITION…THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST HEAT TO THE COAST AND INDICATES 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S TO THE WATER ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OTHER GUIDANCE THAT COMES IN DURING THE SHIFT BEFORE DECIDING IF ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED OR NOT AND JUST HOW MUCH WEIGHT TO GIVE THE MUCH WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS. FOR NOW THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME…MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
This was yesterday-
“HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK… ESPECIALLY INLAND AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT…THERE COULD BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FUELS ARE AT CRITICALLY DRY LEVELS.”
It’s only been a tad over 100 all weekend. It is 88 at 8 pm. It is all relative, you know?
Up here, I experience the highs, the lows; the good, the bad, and the ugly – and on days like this, the ugly is me. I don’t tolerate heat well, but I do get used to it. I just haven’t acclimated, yet. Or, at least, that is what I tell myself.
I have been through summers where I PRAYED for 100 degrees. I’m not there, yet. I am praying for 90. The extremes up here can be vicious. I have recorded a high of 117 degrees and a low of 19 degrees. Different years. (don’t remember the years, but it is in the journals, calendars, and records I keep)
Was it only a week or two ago when I was thinking this had to be the “coolest” summer on record? Man, what was I thinking?
So, the brain shuts down in the heat – or at least mine does. I can do no creative thinking, and can barely carry on a conversation. Fortunately, my dogs don’t care, and if I DO need to carry on a conversation, I can drive down the coast and enter “the fog zone.” I know, those that live on the coast put on jackets and caps, and pray to see the sun. Me? I dress in as little as possible, and wait for the sun to go down. All this within a short little mile or so.
So, the next time you are in the coastal fog zone, think of it as nature’s air conditioning and be grateful. People in California’s Central Valley pay a lot of money to come cool off in our fog. And those of us in the mountains of Big Sur sometimes look down enviously, and sometimes come down to cool off. If this continues, maybe I’ll set up my office on the coast. The brain quits functioning in this heat.
1:00 pm – This report from a friend in town: “It’s absolutely pouring rain here in Carmel at the moment.” And here, I can look out and see the storm approaching. *sigh* My friend said it rained for a solid 2 and 1/2 hours, some of that heavily
And here is the latest NexRad:
I woke to glorious, wonderful, welcome sunshine this morning, but NOAA is predicting this may end by this afternoon. The early morning discussion has this to say:
“AS OF 2:45 AM PDT THURSDAY…IT IS A MILD EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM…WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S STILL. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND IT IS PROGGED TO EDGE OVER THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE SF PENINSULA NORTHWARD WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HILLS. A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND AREAS SOUTH OF MONTEREY.”
*I’m* “south of Monterey.” Maybe the rain will miss me this afternoon!