Today is expected to be mostly dry, but tomorrow, more rain predicted.
From NOAA discussion: “THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOWERY DAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT. WITH H5 TEMPS AS LOW AS -26C IT WILL BE UNSTABLE. …IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DISTRICT SUCH AS LAKE COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY.THEREFORE…HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER…IT WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK IF THERE IS A CLAP OF THUNDER OR SMALL HAIL ON THURSDAY.”
As of 6:00 pm, the drizzle that started at 1:30 pm, and was continuous, managed to accumulate 1/4 inch of rain in my gauge.
Per NOAA discussion:
“…UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY…FRIDAY STARTS A DRYING TREND WITH A WARM-UP MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND…
.DISCUSSION…AS OF 8:40 AM PDT TUESDAY…THE WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE DEVELOPING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE NORTH BAY. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE N BAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER SF BAY. MORE AMPLE MOISTURE IS WAITING IN THE WINGS AS NOTED BY THE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS OF OVER 1 INCH OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT OFF THE CA COAST…AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
STEADIER RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEXT UP WILL BE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS OFF THE BC COAST AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CWA. THE INITIAL 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW DOWN THE COAST AND INTO CA ON THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH LIKELY SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH CLEARING ON FRIDAY.”
9:30 am – the rain did start before I could get this post up on the internet, which has been acting up, lately. NOAA forecasters were spot on with this one. They predicted the rain would start between 9 and 10 am.
And this interesting comment about up-coming weather from NOAA:
“ECMWF SHOWS A 548 DM LOW AT 500 MB OVER SF BAY LATE SATURDAY ALONG WITH 700 MB TEMPS AS COOL AS -10C. IF THIS VERIFIES… SNOW LEVELS WOULD DROP TO UNDER 4000 FEET GOING INTO THE LAST FULL WEEK OF MAY.”
I’ve had snow as late as the middle of May, which is why I hold off planting tomatoes until then, but the last week? Never. Of course, I am below 4000 ft. and this is still a ways out, but will be interesting to watch.
9 am – The rain hasn’t really started here, but – Here it comes:
I have been sitting above the fog, watching the clouds stream in all day today, enjoying the sunshine and warmth, aware of the upcoming storm system. The day is almost done, so it was time to check NOAA’s forecast discussion. This is what the professionals say about tomorrow’s outlook.
“CURRENT FORECAST HAS LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE IN PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE THEREFORE ALL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AROUND THE SAME TIME. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS REMAIN WETTER THEN THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST WETTER OVER THIS AREA AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER THE PACIFIC TO JUSTIFY THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HILLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST RELATIVELY FAST WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING.”
My life is a tad complicated right now, due to Gideon’s heartworm treatment, work that got postponed so I could vacation, systems that keep going out, or which are in need of considerable attention — all of which is making keeping up with Big Sur events a bit of a challenge. For example, I wanted to post a few links to the wonderful photos I have found of the big, big, BIG Sur Fashion show at the HML on Thursday, and the 2010 film festival schedule also at HML, and the Whale Rally on May 23rd, but the time has just not been there for me.
Current nexrad indicates another short squall heading this direction.
The good news is that after this one passes, sometime tonight, the rest of the week is progged to be dry and warmer. I need that, as my blood is still thin from the tropics!
4:30 pm – moderate rain fell at 3:30 pm, and is falling again now. So far, only 1/10th of an inch, but if the current rate keeps up for any period of time, will be up to 1/4 of an inch before sunset.
10:30 am – the rain has begun. We are not supposed to get much, but it has begun very lightly up here already.
4:00 pm – cold, windy, and damp, but only drizzle down here. Did run into significant rain, in pockets, on the way back from SFO today, but not really as far south as Monterey. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
Yes, I am back on the California Coast, and back to regular reporting. Will try to add additional photos from Kauai either under photographs and/or travel over the next weeks, but in the mean time, watching weather and events (lots to catch up on there!) here in Big Sur.
For today, there is a slight possibility of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and a better chance tomorrow afternoon. Cooler temps, too.
Looks like light rain on Sunday, per NOAA discussion. I will be back by then, too.
“AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS. PRECIP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT — IN FACT THE 5 DAY QPF NUMBERS FROM HPC SHOW LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN FOR HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.”
The search for the missing kayaker has been called off.
For Big Sur: “AS OF 9:15 AM PDT SUNDAY…NO FORECAST UPDATES
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY EXPECT [except] FOR ONE PATCH OF FOG NEAR SALINAS THAT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY. LOOKS LIKE A NEAR PERFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE WHOLE DISTRICT WITH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 60S COAST…70S BAYSIDE AND SOME LOWER 80S INLAND.”
For Kauai: After a heavy squall this morning, skies are clearing and upper 70’s to lower 80’s expected. Debbie and I are off to the Plantation this morning, while Rose relaxes here. More photos later. Aloha!
Here are some photographs I took on Friday of the wildflowers.
Lupines at Turkey Flats
Also, a reminder that the BSMAAC meeting is this Friday at 10 am.
Storm report later …
Okay, according to NOAA, today’s storm could bring an inch or more, and showers could linger through Wednesday night, with another possible storm for Thursday and Friday.
Good morning – I am writing to address speculation that the Trust for Public Land (TPL) was close to purchasing property on Partington Ridge. TPL was engaged in preliminary, private conversations with a Big Sur landowner to explore the possibility of a property acquisition. These conversations came to a close with mutual agreement not to proceed.
Rumors of these discussions may have implied that a transaction was imminent or inevitable. I assure you that was not the case. I’m sorry that we weren’t able to address the issue sooner but doing so at such an early stage would have violated the landowner’s right to privacy. Disclosure of these discussions was simply premature. We appreciate your interest in our work and I look forward to soliciting your thoughts on future projects.
Sincerely,
Brendan Moriarty
Brendan Moriarty
Project Manager
The Trust for Public Land
116 New Montgomery St.
Third Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
