I thought Santa Barbara was in the bull’s eye, but it looks like we might be, starting tomorrow morning. From NOAA: (NOTE THE MOST IMPORTANT INFO FOR US IS THE LAST PARAGRAPH.)
“Models have remained rather consistent bringing the first moisture push to the region early Tuesday. Light to moderate rain is on track to develop Tuesday morning along the Big Sur Coast and then spread northward through the day. As light to moderate rain spreads north, moderate to heavy rain is expected to develop over
the Big Sur Coast/Santa Lucias Tuesday afternoon as low level increases and higher PWATs slam into 5k ft peaks. The moderate to heavy rain will likely cause some minor hydro issues along the Big Sur Coast with creek rises, ponding and possible low end flooding at this time. The lower confidence part of the forecast is where this intense plume of moisture sets up. Current forecast/model guidance keeps it at Big Sur, but if it shifts just 30-50 miles north it could be a different ballgame and Santa Cruz Mts could
get dumped on. That solution is less likely, but still wanted to mention it. Winds will also increase out of the south Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will be strongest along the coast and higher coastal peaks with gusts 30-40 mph….
Heaviest rainfall is still slated for Tuesday morning throughThursday morning with pulses of moisture. Only minor tweaks to previous rainfall, but Big Sur Coast will see the most. Rainfall amounts are anticipated to range from 0.75″ to 1.50″ in most urban
areas with 1.00″ to 3.00″ in the North Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains and 2.00″ to 5.00″ in the Santa Lucia Mountains above the Big Sur Coast. Could see isolated amounts upwards of 8.00-10.00″ along the southwest facing coastal slopes of Monterey County (Mining Ridge/Chalk Peak).” (Ed. Note: that’s from Big Creek south to the Chimney Slide areas, so look for potential problems at the usual culprits:Cow Cliffs, Paul’s Slide and Chimney Slide. I cannot even guess what will happen at Mud Creek.)