National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued an “El Niño watch” Thursday morning, saying the climate pattern is expected to form sooner than previously anticipated.
After La Niña ended last month, we entered “ENSO-neutral” conditions, which means neither La Niña nor El Niño is present. Those neutral conditions were expected to end at some point in the summer or early fall.
But as of Thursday, it looks as though the timeline has moved up. Forecasters said there is a 62% chance El Niño will take over between May and July. The probability that El Niño will form by fall is even higher, between 80% and 90%
Note from me, what you won’t see predicted for a while is the strength of this El Niño, so we won’t know if we are going to have another very wet winter, but Daniel Swain (Weather_West) in his office hour this am discussed that possibility and what it COULD mean for the state.
The rains should not concern us. We need about 3 more years of what we just had to break even. Ground water wise for the state.
We has me TERRIFIED is the grasses are three foot high already. The forest is choked with dead brush,timber from Sobranas fire. And summer,late fall el Nino means a very high likely hood of thunderstorms coming from the south. August,September lightning are the historic fire starters.
Whatsbgonnanhappen will happen. Let’s start preparing for a big fire season now.