What can one say to this much rain in 24 hours? And the bulk of the storms still to come tomorrow? Flood Advisory just issued near Greenfield as I was typing this…and another flood advisory for Big Sur. Stay safe, everyone. Stay home if possible.

from 10 am. My gauge reads 1.32 for the last 24 hours. Note Mining Ridge measured a healthy 2.57”

Current guidance has trended wetter, specifically for the Big Sur coast and further into southern California. Despite the high uncertainty, the QPF forecast hasn`t changed drastically. The coastal mountains are now expecting about 4-7 inches of rain over the week, which is about an inch more than we expected 24 hours ago.

The above is the NOAA/NWS weather report from this morning’s discussion. Wednesday is the big day for the storms, it looks like.

Pay attention to the “just silly” statement re the 10 inches of rain in 5 days. That being said, the Santa Lucias along the Big Sur coast score big once again. From NOAA/NWS Monterey Bay:

While the NBM low end scenario seems more reasonable
with 0.5-1.0" across the region, the high end remains outrageous.
The NBM 90% percentile accumulation is suggesting widespread
totals of greater than 10 inches along the coast, with up to 24
inches in the Santa Lucia Mountains. Meanwhile the global
ensembles are showing a much tighter spread. Take SFO for example.
All 30 members of the GEFS and all 50 of the ECMWF EPS are
between 0.75 and 3.5 inches. Even in a historical context, San
Francisco has never experienced more than 10 inches of rain over
a 5 day period since record keeping began in 1849. To say that
there is a 10% chance that this system will bring more rain than
the area has seen since the gold rush era is just silly. A more
reasonable high end scenario is 3-5 inches for most coastal areas,
with 4-6 in the mountains and 2-3 in some of the rain shadow
areas. This is only about an inch above the deterministic
forecast, which lies on the high end of guidance.

Prescribed Burn Planned For Monterey County

Big Sur, CA – Conditions and weather permitting, CAL FIRE plans to conduct a broadcast burn at Andrew Molera State Park in Monterey County on December 13th, 2023. The project aims to restore the Coastal Prairie Plant Community in Andrew Molera State Park that has diminished due to competition from non-native grasses, encroachment by scrub, and lack of frequent, low intensity fires. The reintroduction of fire to the landscape also has the potential to enhance fire safety by reducing high fuel density. 

This prescribed fire project was planned as part of broader strategic efforts to protect the local community and nearby natural resources. These plans are informed by community and local stakeholder input and serveas a collaborativeeffort with various cooperators throughout the project. This project adds to significant work underway throughout the state. It brings California closer to meeting or exceeding state fuel reduction goals directed by the California Fire Plan and the California Wildfire and Forest Resilience Action Plan. 

Each operation follows a specialized burn plan, whichconsiders temperature,humidity, wind, moisture of the vegetation, and conditions for the dispersal of smoke. All this information is used to decide when and where to burn. 

Smoke from prescribed fire operations is normal and may continue for several days after ignition, depending on the project size, conditions, and weather. Prescribed fire smoke is generally less intense and of much shorter durationthan smoke produced by wildland fires. 

Smoke from this control burn will be visible from the Monterey Peninsula and surrounding cities. Weather conditions will be monitored, and burn may be postponed if burning conditions are found to be unfavorable. CAL FIRE is in close consultation with the National Weather Service’s Monterey Office and Monterey Bay Air Resources District to ensure that the burn takes place inappropriate weather conditions; the project may be postponed if conditions are not conducive to a safe burn. 

To track the progress being made, both in your community and throughout California, please visit the CAL FIRE fuels reductiondashboard at https://www.fire.ca.gov/what-we- do/natural-resource-management/fuels-reduction and help share important preventing and preparedness information with your neighbors at readyforwildfire.org 

To be added to the Prescribed Fire Notification list, 

Send a request to BEU.ResourceManagement@fire.ca.gov or scan the QR code. 

For additional information on preparing for and preventing wildfires, visitwww.ReadyForWildfire.org. 

Date:	Friday, December 8, 2023
District:	05 – Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz Counties
Contact:	Kevin Drabinski or Jim Shivers
Phone:	(805) 549-3138 or (805) 549-3237

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

UPDATE #52

ESTIMATED REOPENING OF HIGHWAY 1 AT PAUL’S SLIDE

SET FOR LATE SPRING 2024

MONTEREY/SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES – Caltrans today announced an estimated date for a full reopening of Highway 1 at Paul’s Slide of late spring 2024.

This estimated reopening is based on multiple months of work still needed to complete repairs at the site. Tasks that still remain include:

·       The continued grading and contouring of the face of the slide to enhance stability of the slope.

·       Continued delivery of fill material to the south end of the repair to support the new alignment of the road which will be elevated as much as 60 feet and slightly inland from its previous course. This new alignment also provides for an expanded catchment area on the inland side intended to keep future slide materials away from the roadway.

·       Installation of a series of new culverts to convey water and debris under the roadway.

·       Final surveys and paving of the road.

·       Installation of protective rockfall barriers on the northbound side and guardrail in the southbound direction.

While Caltrans has confidence in the duration of the work necessary to complete the repairs, there is less certainty about how winter rains will affect this timetable.

Depending on the intensity and duration of a rain event, a single day of rain may delay production for multiple days. Production may be stopped to prepare the site in advance of forecasted rain. Once the rain event is over, resumption of production may be delayed due to saturation of the ground, or any damage caused by slide activity brought on by the rain.

Highway 1 remains closed to vehicle, bicycle, and pedestrian traffic for 1.5 miles, between Limekiln State Park to the south, and .6 miles south of the town of Lucia to the north.

Crews will continue to work seven days a week toward reopening of a road which the public can travel upon safely by late spring next year. Crews will continue to work in a manner which prioritize the safe working conditions of construction and maintenance crews.

Road information and updates can also be found on Caltrans District 5 Social Media platforms: Twitter at: @CaltransD5, Facebook at: Caltrans Central Coast (District 5) and Instagram at: Caltrans_D5.