From the NWS, Bay Area, who advises keeping up with the latest forecasts:
“Slight update to the forecast for the upcoming storm on Wednesday. Expect issues if traveling on Wednesday, especially in the North Bay and the coastal ranges. Roadway flooding and shallow landslides are likely.”
I am particularly fond of “shallow landslides are likely” as opposed to deep, I would guess. (I looked it up: “Landslide processes involve the downslope movement of soil or rock under the effect of gravity (USGS, 2004). Shallow landslides (SLs) are a subset of these processes that usually involve soil masses less than 2 m thick (Phillips et al., 2021), generally sliding translationally over the failure surface at or near discontinuities in the soil profile or the bedrock contact.” https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925857421002913)
Fun week coming up, it looks like. Stay safe, everyone!
EMERGENCY PROJECT TO REPLACE DAMAGED RETAINING WALL
TO BEGIN ON HIGHWAY 1 IN BIG SUR
MONTEREY COUNTY – Crews are scheduled to begin the replacement of a retaining wall below the roadway on Highway 1 at Post Mile 47.8 in Monterey County after several concrete blocks that armored the highway were loosened after recent rains and water flows from the Big Sur River.
This location is .75 miles north of Fernwood and adjacent to where Caltrans recently removed a logjam from the Big Sur River.
Crews will begin delivering large rocks to the site on Saturday Jan. 27.Equipment will be mobilized and staged to respond to any changes in site conditions as a result of upcoming forecasted weather events. There should be little or no impact to travelers at this time as a result of these mobilization efforts.
Specific updates about the nature and timing of the retaining wall replacement work will be provided. At present, engineering, environmental, and hydrological assessments are underway in order to help inform the repair design.
Road information and updates can also be found on Caltrans District 5 Social Media platforms: Twitter at: @CaltransD5, Facebook at: Caltrans Central Coast (District 5) and Instagram at: Caltrans_D5.
WAY TO GO, CALTRANS! Two days after I published re this problem, and the solution is being implemented. Thanks to Barbara Ray and Ken Wright for notifying me. And to Patte Kronlund for contacting Kate Daniels and Senator Laird who provided their assistance with Caltrans, Sacramento! It takes a village of dedicated, caring Big Surians.
Today we have this. Barbara sent the first two photos for comparison, and the last one was taken on Monday, 1/22/24. All were taken by Barbara, except the last one, taken by her caretaker, Bruce Jensen.
August 13, 2017 note blocks in the upper right hand side.
Log jam taken Oct 27, 2023 for comparison.
And Monday – note the loss of blocks and the roadway above.
Video sent to me by Ken Wright, who states that the concrete blocks were put in after the Marble Cone fire (1977) to protect the road.
Short version? Clear today, rain tonight into tomorrow, then no rain until the end of the month. January 30th thru February 5th there is a high probability of an atmospheric river that will impact the entire California Coast, and also the Sierras and Klamath mountains.
CONSTRUCTION STATUS REPORT CA ERFO FS LSPDR 2021-1(1) NACIMIENTO FERGUSSON ROAD January 15, 2024 PROJECT DESCRIPTION The Los Padres National Forest (LPNF) sustained significant damage to transportation facilities, including roadway embankments and drainage items during the 2021 Heavy Precipitation and Flooding event. The US Forest Service (FS) is requesting that the Central Federal Lands Highway Division (CFLHD) perform engineering and construction services to repair the damaged facilities utilizing Emergency Repair for Federally Owned Roads (ERFO) funds. The project is located approximately 33 miles southwest of King City, CA on Forest Service Route 22S01 (Nacimiento Fergusson Road) within the Los Padres National Forest in Monterey, CA. The project consists of repairing 22 sites, encompassing 11 miles along the route. Site repairs generally include embankment construction, retaining walls, and culvert replacements.
Confidence is increasing for a more notable rain system to impact
the region starting on Friday into the early part of next week.
Ensemble models guidance shows an upper level trough in the Pacific
approaching the West Coast and extending into the western United
States. This in turn will bring moisture from the tropics west of
Hawaii through California. At this time, the ensemble model guidance
is suggesting a low end atmospheric river. However, the guidance
also shows that the moisture tap is quite dynamic, instead of being
fixed to one region, the end of the plume touches the central
California coast, and quickly moves south towards Baja California
before another plume comes up behind it. At this time, the forecast
calls for a couple periods of moderate to heavy rain from Friday
into the weekend, with lingering rain through Tuesday of next week.
Rainfall totals from Friday into Monday look to be highly
significant, with early estimates suggesting 1.5-3" in the Bay Area
and Central Coast valleys, 3-5" in the North Bay valleys, and 4-6"
in the coastal ranges with localized amounts up to 8". Details
should be refined through the week. In the meantime, it is a good
idea to plan for wet conditions through the weekend, and stay tuned
to forecast updates.
