With another storm possible for next weekend, I am enjoying the clear, calm day. Keep an eye on the weather predictions and use this time to prepare, physically and mentally, for what could be coming our way.
I read on the Hermitage FB page that the slide north of Paul’s at Wing Gulch is predicted to take a month or so to clear, which leaves a number of people on an “island” again — Lucia, Hermitage, Point 16, Lopez Point, Big Creek, to name a few.
In the mean time, here are a few shots of the snow and hail we got earlier this week.
7:30 am – First, let me explain why I have been MIA. My internet went out sometime after 2 am Tuesday morning. I have been completely lost without it and unable to find out much re highway or weather, and of course, unable to report. Tuesday and Wednesday I was so frustrated. Yesterday, I just relaxed, built a fire (it was quite cold) and read. There was ice and hail on the deck where the Starlink dish lives, so too dangerous to go work on it, then, this am, it came back on its own.
The Climate Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of California, once again, in their 8-14
graphics with a high risk of heavy precipitation, moderate risk of
high winds, and flooding possible. The time window is sometime
between Feb 16-21. Models have been trending this way over the last
couple days, but we are still too far out to resolve details
regarding impacts to the Bay Area and Central Coast. The takeaway is
to utilize the good weather days this weekend and into next week to
prepare for a potentially impactful pattern late next week through
Washington`s Birthday holiday weekend.
From KION: We’ll be dry and seasonable through the weekend and into early next week with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. We are watching a system toward the end of next week that could bring some light rain to the area. Stormy weather returns next weekend into the holiday. Heavy rain and gusty winds with flooding possible once again. Keep the rain gear ready.
ROCKSLIDE ON HIGHWAY 1 MOVES NORTHERN CLOSURE UP FROM PAUL’S SLIDE TO NORTH OF BIG CREEK BRIDGE
MONTEREY COUNTY– Due to active slide activity, the northern closure on Highway 1, previously located at Paul’s Slide at Post Mile 22, has moved north to 1.7 miles north of the Big Creek Bridge at Post Mile 29.7. There is as yet no estimated time for reopening.
Caltrans and contracted crews are on site to clear debris and stabilize the hillside above the roadway.
REPAIRS CONTINUE AT PAUL’S SLIDE WITH RAIN AND SITE CONDITIONS STILL PLAYING KEY ROLES IN DETERMING DATE FOR A FULL REOPENING
MONTEREY/SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES – Crews continue with repairs to Highway 1 at Paul’s Slide on the Big Sur coast. The estimated date for a full reopening of Highway 1 at Paul’s Slide remains late spring of 2024.
Crews have had to suspend repair work in the days immediately before and after recent rain events. However, the rain has not had a significant adverse effect on the repair site overall. Crews have been able to safeguard the progress on the south end of the slide which includes the fill area established to support the new roadway alignment.
At the north end of the slide, a temporary catchment area has served to safeguard the future alignment of the roadway from stormwater and runoff.
Like much of the Big Sur coast, the ground at the repair site is saturated and there continues to be evidence of slide activity. However, at the conclusion of recent rain events crews have been able to return to full production.
Looking forward, repairs at Paul’s Slide will continue to be affected by site conditions and weather. In the event of slide activity, crews will need to pivot to react to those conditions which would necessarily take away from time devoted to repair work. Additional rain this winter will also detract from active repair production days.
However, crews will continue to work seven days a week and the estimated date for a full reopening of Highway 1 at Paul’s Slide continues to be late spring of 2024.
Highway 1 remains open for travel from the Monterey/Carmel area to .6 miles south of the town of Lucia, and from the Cambria/San Simeon area north, to just south of Limekiln State Park. No vehicle, bicycle, or pedestrian traffic is permitted across the repair site at Paul’s Slide due to construction activities and the potential for slides and rockfall.
Road information and updates can also be found on Caltrans District 5 Social Media platforms: Twitter at: @CaltransD5, Facebook at: Caltrans Central Coast (District 5) and Instagram at: Caltrans_D5.
Yesterday, Rich Veum at the Hermitage sent me this, but I just got it this am. Thanks, Rich and Johnny!
“Good morning! In case you haven’t heard, this slide occurred this morning about a mile north of big Creek. Described by Caltrans as an active slide according to our cook Johnny Blunt. The photo is from him also. Crews responding but no ETA on clearing.” Now let me catch up on what has happened the last three days in the world and Big Sur, and I’ll be back with anything noteworthy.
Like yesterday, I will be updating this post throughout the day as conditions warrant.
4 pm – A tree fell on the campground host’s motorhome at Kirk Creek yesterday.
News from Paul’s Slide is that it is holding and there has been no new movment.
1:30 pm – The Monterey County Sheriff’s Office has lifted the Shelter-In-Place for all areas of Pebble Beach effective immediately. Please be aware of your surroundings and changing conditions; use caution in these areas and obey all traffic control signs. Continue Monitoring local media, social media, and Nixle alerts for updates. Call 9-1-1 only if you have a life-threatening emergency. For more information visit: https://bit.ly/3Za0Xc0
Resource Centers are open today, February 5, 2024 for Monterey Peninsula residents still impacted by power outages. These centers are in collaboration with City of Monterey, City of Pacific Grove, City of Seaside, California State Parks, and Monterey County Free Libraries. Centers will offer a warm location, Wi-Fi, charging stations for residents to charge electronic and medical devices plus limited refrigeration for medications ONLY, water and snacks.
Asilomar Conference Center Social Hall 800 Asilomar Blvd, Pacific Grove
Monterey Public Library 625 Pacific Street, Monterey
County of Monterey Seaside Library 550 Harcourt Avenue, Seaside
The Carmel by the Sea Police Department has opened a Temporary Assistance Center at the Park Branch Library Monday February 5th, 2024 from 9am to 5pm for residents that may need to charge their phones, need a light snack, or receive storm resources and information.
The Temporary Evacuation Point at Carmel Valley Library, 65 W Carmel Valley Rd is open Monday, February 5th from 8am-8pm.
9:30 am – Advisory: Evacuation Orders lifted for all areas of Carmel River Effective Immediately & Until further Notice | Ordenes de Evacuacion levantadas …
Dear Nixle User,Evacuation Orders lifted for all areas of Carmel River Effective Immediately & Until further Notice | Ordenes de Evacuacion levantadas para las zonas del Río de Carmel en efecto inmediatamente The Monterey County Sheriff’s Office has lifted the Evacuation Orders for all areas of the Carmel River effective immediately and until further notice. Please be aware of your surroundings and changing conditions; use caution in these areas and obey all traffic control signs. Continue monitoring local media, social media, and Nixle alerts for updates. Call 9-1-1 only if you have a life-threatening emergency. For more information visit: bit.ly/3Za0Xc0
9:15 am – Advisory: Carmel-By-The-Sea: Temporary Assistance Center at the Park Branch Library | Centro de Asistencia Temporal en la Biblioteca del Parque
Dear Nixle User,The Carmel by the Sea Police Department has opened a Temporary Assistance Center at the Park Branch Library due to the power outage affecting the city. The Temporary Assistance Center will be open Monday February 5th, 2024 from 9am to 5pm for residents that may need to charge their phones, need a light snack, or receive storm resources and information. For questions call 831-624-6403 Map: bit.ly/3Za0Xc0
8 am – Fortunately, while it is raining, the wind seems to be gone.
“BIG SUR, CALIF. (KION-TV) – Roads heading into the Big Sur coast are closed due to multiple issues related to the recent storm.
According to Cal Trans, a full closure is in place from Yankee Point Post Mile 67.9 to Andrew Molera State Park at PM 51.2 due to downed trees and power lines. Officials say repair work will begin first thing Monday morning.”
We know that the highlands was a mess of downed trees, power lines, as were many places through out the peninsula, but in addition to the above, people couldn’t get into Big Sur itself, as this was just north of River Inn:
As with yesterday, I will be updating this throughout the day.
Advisory: Shelter-In-Place In Effect for Pebble Beach Until Further Notice | Quedarse en casa en efecto para Pebble Beach hasta nuevo aviso
Dear Nixle User,The Monterey County Sheriff’s Office has issued a Shelter-In-Place in effect for Pebble Beach due to downed power lines, fallen trees, and road hazards until further notice. Monitor local media, social media, and Nixle alerts for updates. Call 9-1-1 if you need to be evacuated for a life-threatening emergency. To view an Evacuation Map: https://bit.ly/3Za0Xc0
Carmel CERT, California Conservation Corps (small contingent) and National Guard ( small contingent) are assisting County Public Works efforts building a sandbag flood wall along the Carmel River at Dampierre Park in Carmel Valley.
Due to the rapidly changing storm conditions, all County of Monterey day-use parks and the Laguna Seca Rifle and Pistol Range will remain closed Sunday, February 4, 2024, and will reopen when conditions allow. The closure will include Toro, Jacks Peak, Manzanita, Royal Oaks, and San Lorenzo Parks.
Advisory: Shelter-In-Place & Full Road Closure For Areas of Arroyo Seco West of Carmel Valley Rd. | Refugio en el lugar y cierre total de camino …
Dear Nixle User,The Monterey County Sheriff’s Office has issued a Shelter-In-Place and Full Road Closure in effect for areas of Arroyo Seco Rd and tributary roads west of Carmel Valley Rd until further notice. There is mass movement of falling rock above Arroyo Seco Rd with potential for additional slope failure. A Full Road closure is in place at the slide on Arroyo Seco Rd (west of Carmel Valley Rd) Check with your neighbors to ensure they have been made aware of this alert. Monitor local media, social media, and Nixle alerts for updates. Call 9-1-1 if you need to be evacuated for a life-threatening emergency. To view an Evacuation Map: bit.ly/3Za0Xc0
Advisory: Updated: Evacuation Warnings Upgraded to Evacuation Orders for areas of Carmel River Effective Immediately & Until further Notice | Ad …
Dear Nixle User,The Monterey County Sheriff’s Office has upgraded Evacuation Warnings to Evacuation Orders for low-lying areas of the Carmel River effective immediately and until further notice. The Evacuation Order includes areas of the Carmel River near Camp Steffani, Lower Robles Del Rio, Paso Hondo, Garzes, lower Shulte Rd. If you are in an Evacuation Order Zone quickly and calmly evacuate. Check with your neighbors to ensure they have been made aware of this alert. If you have large animals or need extra time to evacuate, now is the time to do so. Monitor local media, social media, and Nixle alerts for updates. Call 2-1-1 for information. Call 9-1-1 only if you have a life-threatening emergency. If you need animal sheltering, call the SPCA at 831-373-2631. For the SPCA after hours line call 831-646-5534. A Temporary Evacuation Point is located at the Carmel Valley Library from 8am-8pm, 2/4 through 2/5 (Sunday-Monday) To view an Evacuation Map: bit.ly/3Za0Xc0
Carmel CERT, California Conservation Corps (small contingent) and National Guard ( small contingent) are assisting County Public Works efforts building a sandbag flood wall along the Carmel River at Dampierre Park in Carmel Valley.
Due to the rapidly changing storm conditions, all County of Monterey day-use parks and the Laguna Seca Rifle and Pistol Range will remain closed Sunday, February 4, 2024, and will reopen when conditions allow. The closure will include Toro, Jacks Peak, Manzanita, Royal Oaks, and San Lorenzo Parks.
County roads may be impacted by high winds, rain and falling trees or powerlines. County road conditions are being continually updated, check https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/government/departments-i-z/public-works-facilities-parks/public-works/road-closures-information
Power out in many places, including at least parts of Big Sur Valley, if not all of it. At 8 am, wind gusts were recorded up here at my place at 60 mph. Rain totals at 8 am around the Big Sur Coast:
And traffic hazards all over the Monterey/Santa Cruz/San Benito areas. This is only 1/2 the listing that go back to 7:30 am:
On this date in 2013, a Border Collie snuck past the four dogs I had and came into my house, and up to the bed I was lying in. I heard the toenails on the wood floor and thought it was one of the four that had just let outside to pee. “Oh, my,” I said to her. “Who are you, Missy?” Skinny, covered with fleas, I put her in the bathroom away from my other dogs until I could get her to the vet and get her checked out. This was her on that wonderful day that changed my life. The vet thought she was 1 or 2 back then, which puts her at 12 or 13 years old today. He thought she had probably been running around the forest on her own for a couple weeks. Smart as a whip, polite, obedient, a true Border Collie. Happy gotcha day, Missy!
On the precipitation front he wrote this: “Why is this storm going to be so unusual? There are a range of factors that have to line up for rapid cyclogenesis to occur close to the CA coast, and they don’t align often. One is robust “baroclinic instability”–a kind of atmospheric instability that derives from the potential energy contained by the atmospheric flow in an environment of strong horizontal air temperature differentials (this is the kind of potential energy that essentially all winter storms draw upon, but the California coast is not generally a favorable region for this to occur to a substantial degree). Additionally, the region will be in a relatively conductive position relative to a strong Pacific jet streak aligned over Central CA. This configuration, including the presence of upper divergence, allows for “ventilation” at upper levels of the atmosphere right above the low pressure center–which facilitates deepening/evacuation of air from the low itself and enhancing its cyclonic spin. This powerful low is also tapping into some deep subtropical moisture, and the circulation around this system will aim that plume squarely at central and southern California. Due to these additional factors, this event may end up punching well above its weight on the 5-category atmospheric river scaling system.” (https://weatherwest.com/archives/35471)
On the wind front he had this to say: “Again, there is still a substantial range–but since multiple models are now indicating gusts of 70-85 mph out over open water west of Monterey County, it’s highly plausible that gusts at least that strong could mix down to the surface near the coast and over ridgelines, and locally elsewhere in pretty widespread fashion. (A few classically windy places on more remote higher ridgelines that often see high winds could potentially see 90+ mph gusts, though gusts that high are very unlikely where people actually live.) More widespread wind gusts of 55-70 mph are likely across much of the Central Coast, SF & Monterey Bay Areas, and near the I-80 corridor in the Central Valley (including Sacramento).” (https://weatherwest.com/archives/35471)
Will start off with this high wind warning from the NWS and this precipitation prediction made by KION, and add information as it becomes available and the day progresses.
And this came from KION earlier this morning (5:30 am)
ADVISORY: State Officials to Provide Update on February Storm ResponseSACRAMENTO – State officials will provide an update on the state’s response and preparedness efforts as the state endures another round of winter storms. Speakers will be available from the following agencies: National Weather Service (NWS)California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES)California Department of Water Resources (DWR)California Department of Social Services (CDSS)California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)California Military Department (CMD)California State Transportation Agency (CalSTA) WHEN: Saturday, February 3, 2024, at approximately 12 p.m. WHERE: Cal OES Headquarters, 3650 Schriever Ave. Mather, CA 95655 RSVP to:media@caloes.ca.govMedia can ask questions through Zoom Livestream:FacebookYouTube This press conference is also available to TV stations on the LiveU Matrix under “CalOES LiveU,” TVU Grid under “CAL_OES_PACK.”
Cal OES | State Emergency Operations Ctr, 3650 Schriever Ave., Mather, CA 95655
County of Monterey Storm & Safety Information News Briefing 2-2-24. Worth a watch. Sheriff Nieto is watching the Big Sur Coast for the impacts and tells us the Nation Guard is on drill so their resources (high water vehicles and helicopters) are available and watching whether they need to shift north or south. The closure for Paul’s Slide at Limekiln has been moved 1 mile south due to rockfalls.
National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch in effect Saturday, 2/03, afternoon to late Monday, 2/05, morningfor areas of Monterey County. WHAT: Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible WHERE: Interior Monterey including Pinnacles Ntl Park, Salinas Valley, Carmel Valley, Santa Lucia Mtns, Los Padres Ntl Forest, S. Monterey Bay, Big Sur Coast, Arroyo Seco, & Lake San Antonio WHEN: Saturday, 2/03, evening – Monday, 2/05, morningIMPACTS: Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers/creeks/streams & low-lying/flood-prone locations. Creeks & streams will see rapid rises. Flooding may occur in poor drainage, urban areas, & low-water crossings. Storm drains & ditches may clog with debris PREP. ACTIONS: Monitor the latest forecasts & be alert for possible Flood Warnings. If you live in areas prone to flooding be prepared to take action if flooding occurs. www.weather.gov/safety/flood NWS: alertmry.org/3w3iXL3
UPDATE FROM DANIEL SWAIN’S (WEATHER WEST) OFFICE HOURS: Big Sur is going to get hit and hit hard. He said Big Sur will see 7-10” with this next storm, and the mountains will get 10-15”. Daniel Swain is not an alarmist and is generally conservative in his predictions. Not this time. This next storm starts to hit us Saturday night.
Unlike the previous system, the rainband focuses more along the
Central Coast, meaning Big Sur and the Santa Lucias will see the
highest rainfall amounts. Rain rates reduce into Sunday night but
light showers and slight chances for storms linger into Monday.
Updated rainfall totals for Saturday evening through Monday:
1" to 2": Santa Clara Valley, Interior East Bay
2" to 3": San Francisco, Oakland, East Bay Hills, lower elevations
of San Mateo Co, interior North Bay, interior Monterey Co, San
Benito Co
3 to 5": Santa Cruz Co, higher elevations of the North Bay, San
Mateo, San Benito, and Santa Clara counties.
5" to 7": The highest peaks of the Santa Cruz Mtns and Marin Co. The
Santa Lucias and Big Sur Coast.
Above 7": The highest peaks of the Big Sur Coast.
While scattered showers will persist for the next 3 days, all meteorological eyes are on Sunday to Monday’s storm. For Sunday and Monday from NWS-North Bay: “Impacts from rain and wind appear likely, with a particular focus on the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges. Forecast rain amounts have increased, with most likely totals in the 3-7″ range for the coastal ranges….”
From the NWS, Bay Area, who advises keeping up with the latest forecasts:
“Slight update to the forecast for the upcoming storm on Wednesday. Expect issues if traveling on Wednesday, especially in the North Bay and the coastal ranges. Roadway flooding and shallow landslides are likely.”
I am particularly fond of “shallow landslides are likely” as opposed to deep, I would guess. (I looked it up: “Landslide processes involve the downslope movement of soil or rock under the effect of gravity (USGS, 2004). Shallow landslides (SLs) are a subset of these processes that usually involve soil masses less than 2 m thick (Phillips et al., 2021), generally sliding translationally over the failure surface at or near discontinuities in the soil profile or the bedrock contact.” https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925857421002913)
Fun week coming up, it looks like. Stay safe, everyone!
