Predictions are dire. The news is not good. According to Rob of OES, a rainfall of 1.5-1.9 inches in 3 hours at any point this winter will result in a catastrophic event for Big Sur. OES is setting up a flood watch, and flood warning system. The flood watch will be relatively easy to implement, and the OES plans on using any and all means available for notification of residents. KUSP is already working with OES regarding providing public service announcements . Flood warning will be problematic, as there might not be enough time, and if issued too early, might result in lesser compliance as more warnings are issued. Some, if not many, evacuations will occur. The BSVFB is working out the logistics and places available for evacuation shelters, here in Big Sur, rather than at Carmel Middle School.

The State Park campground will close 11/1/08, and may not be open again until Memorial Day, 2009, due to flood concerns. Two of the bridges to the campground will be removed, to prevent being washed away. One will be put back after winter rains. The other bridge is to be rebuilt to withstand a 100 year flood. This will put a serious strain on the campgrounds and areas down on the South Coast during this 7-month closure, as well as the businesses in the Valley.

Cal-Trans has been taking a very pro-active position, and my drive north today demonstrated this position on the ground. Lots of work going on in preparation for winter. USFS is woefully lacking in their participation and preparation, and the community expressed its frustration with the USFS and with John Bradford, who was unprepared to answer questions about what his agency was doing. Sam Farr’s office is calling for a meeting with the USFS for next week.

It is hard to envision what may happen this winter. If you’ve watched any debris flow videos, you know that these things are like runaway freight trains, and all one can do is get out of the way. We can only hope that whatever rains we get are gentle, otherwise, slides, road closures, bridges washed away or taken out by debris flow, houses not burned could be flooded, or filled with mud and debris. We must pray that no one is injured.

I wish I had better news for all of us, but the meeting was excruciatingly depressing and detailed about what we are facing. I will revise this abbreviated report tomorrow, as I left my notes in the Jeep, but the critical points are here.

Also, please note I have updated the Winter Preparations Page of my blog with links to the SEAT report, and the federal BAER report, released to the public 9/26/08. I have added a few notes from the reports themselves, although the BAER report was a bit of a disappointment.

The Accident Prevention Analysis Report of the burn-over of 4 firefights of Engine 71 on June 11, 2008 during the Indians Fire on Los Padres National Forest has been released. It is a lengthy report, and I cannot reproduce it here in its entirety, but you can read it here:

Click to access Indians_Fire_APA_2008.pdf

The story portion of the report is fascinating reading and includes maps, photos, and well as depictions. Anyone interested in how this came about, will find this interesting reading. Three of the 4 firefighters were burned. One remained in the hospital for a week. All were lucky.

A draft of the BAER report was released a few days ago. You can find the entire report here:

Click to access 090508_2520_3a_basin2500-8_redacted.pdf

Here are a few highlights:

“The potential for increased stream flows leading to flooding and debris flows is high to very high, particularly above some of the slopes above Highway 1 and structures near Big Sur and the Tassajara Zen Center. ”

“Given the predicted effects of the fire, all of the high value resources listed above are at serious risk for severe consequences should a storm of any significance rain on the burned area within the next three years. Impacts would occur from a combination of increases in flood flows, sediment yield, landslides and debris flows.”

“The hillslopes are generally too steep for soil treatments such as hydromulching to be effective.”

“Recommended treatments to help protect human life and safety include participating in the
establishment of an early alert system, storm patrols, and working with local agencies to help at-risk
communities be prepared in the event of a storm.”

“Additionally, the potential loss of access along Highway 1 may occur from flooding and debris flows from Pheneger Creek in the north down to Rat Creek in the south.”

“…there are no land treatments (hillslope treatments) which could be effectively implemented to provide soil cover and minimize or reduce the threat.”

“The trail system in the burned area should be closed until after the first winter following the fire. Conditions following the first winter should be evaluated to judge if additional time is needed to
provide for user safety or for protection of the trails at risk.”

“he BAER team recommends that the Los Padres National Forest area within the burned perimeter be closed to public access from the present time until it is determined by the Monterey District and Supervisors Office staff that conditions are safe enough to open this area. Hazards include trees and limbs falling, flooding, washout of trails, and dry ravel covering trails. Areas where the public may access hazardous areas from outside of this closure should also be analysed and, if necessary, posted with warning or closure signs.”

(Paraphrased) Trail inspectors will work through out the winter, assessing and correcting damage and while there, will be looking for signs of illegal entry and contacting law enforcement re same.

Gala, certainly describes last night’s event! Over 600 people in attendance, lots of art and fire photographs up for silent auction, and a chance to meet part-timers from our coast, people from the peninsula, and see some old faces — well, they are getting older, but I really meant familiar faces.

The evening started with cocktails and hors dourves upstairs, with a chance to mingle. Doris and I were speaking outside. We had been joined by a firefighter from CV. Doris points out some smoke from a fire, not too far away. After Doris leaves, the firefighter’s husband joins us. He is a fire marshall. The wife points out the smoke, and hubby replies, “Oh, that is fog.” He leaves to get his wife a drink, and the page comes in, they are sending 3 CV engines to the “fog.” I ask her if she is going to tell her husband he was wrong. “Oh, I’d never do that!” (Maybe that is why she is still married, and I’m divorced?) Anyway, when he returns with the drinks, she just shows him the call-out call on her cell phone. I watched the eyes of the man, as he was proved wrong. She just didn’t tell him.

We were seated for dinner at assigned tables. I did not know anyone, although one couple knew me. When they found out I was “bigsurkate” they both were very flowing with their compliments. They were away from the area when the fire struck, and so had only the internet. Along with that great site, xuanantoday, they relied on my blog. Nice to know I was helpful.

For me, the early entertainment was too loud for the conversations we were all trying to have in a large room with 600 people. Don’t get me wrong, the Afro-Latin fusion was great. The entry of the drums to start the program was quintessential Big Sur. No question. But it was too loud for too long. The hit of the evening was a multi-media presentation of interviews with Sula Nichols and others, Kodiak Greenwoods photography set to music — “I won’t back down” — brought tears to my eyes. The visual effect was exquisite.

Of course, our local fire brigade were all honored on stage, and received a standing ovation from the crowd.

Everything about the evening was really a class act, from the napkins (I fell in love with them) to the food and wine pairings, which was excellent.

I left just before dessert was served, shortly after 9 pm. Long drive home. It was a very successful fund-raiser and a wonderful tribute to our community — near and far.

I have begun to do some research into this very dangerous job people take on — what works, and what doesn’t. It started with Cal-Fire’s recommendation regarding the Thirtymile Fire in 2001 up in Washington State which took the lives of 4 firefighters. Here, we were very lucky. No one died. No serious injuries were reported. Despite the extreme nature of the fire, and the houses lost, we were lucky.

The USFS conducted a full investigation of the Thirtymile fire, and among those investigating were Jeanne Pincha-Tulley. The report issued was a mind-opener. When I googled the Thirtymile fire, one report that came up had material for inter-agency usage. That of course got me interested. I read all 50 plus pages, plus appendixes, of this report that explained what went wrong, causing the death of these firefighters. So many factors played a roll, but one thing is clear, these men and women do not get enough time to recover. They are on alert for hours, and days at a time, leading to poor choices. Exhaustion can be critical in the decision making process. Command confusion is clearly another, equipment inadequacies or unavailability are another, and of course, underestimating the enemy is always a factor. Also, I just found this on http://www.wildlandfire.com:

“I just read that Judge Van Sickle will sentence Ellreese Daniels on August 18, 2008.”

Ellreese Daniels was the IC, a squad boss, and the first one ever criminally prosecuted for the death of firefighters at a wildfire. If you would really like to understand some of the things these wildland firefighters face, read this report. It can be found here:

Click to access 30mile_report.pdf

Now, I’d like to find the report for the Esparanza fire of 2006 which caused the death of 5 firefighters and share it with you. These reports may open your eyes. In the Thirtymile fire, firefighters were not trying to save structures. They were simply trying to put out a wildfire.

It is easy to criticize the IC on the Basin Complex Fire, and I do think he made mistakes, and my discussions with Cal-Fire bear that out, but if you had lost your personnel, as Dietrich did in the Esparanza fire, would you have played it any differently? When you have thousands of tired men and women out in the field, fighting these fires up-close-and personal, would your decisions have placed lives at risk? Don’t get me wrong, there is still the issue of the mandatory evacuations, and the treatment of those who stayed behind to protect their properties; but these are separate issues.

We were lucky. No one died. Remember that. It is important.

Last night’s meeting was well worth the time. More people turned out than I had ever seen at one of our Big Sur Multi-Agency Advisory Council Meetings — a HUGE turn-out, in fact. SRO, with people lined up against all the walls and standing outside. I got to see north coast neighbors I had not seen since the fire began. Many hugs from many people. I am so very blessed to be a part of this extraordinary community that exhibits such compassion and heartfelt care for one another. Big Sur, as a community and as a voice, shined her brightest last night. I am honored to have been present.

The meeting was taped by a number of television stations and KUSP. You can see a photo of the crowd at life in the fire lane blog (on my blog roll) and download an audio of the meeting at: http://web.me.com/kellyeo/Life_in_the_Fire_Lane/Life_in_the_Fire_Lane_Downloads.html
Although there was some anger, the meeting was respectful, orderly, and enlightening. It was one of the best meetings I have attended in a long time. We shared stories of what happened in each of our respective corners of the world, some were absolutely amazing. I loved Frank Hathaway’s story about evacuating a SECOND time, only to later receive a phone call from Frank Pinney, our BSVFB Chief, telling him he was calling from Hathaway’s phone, inside Hathaway’s house, and that it was saved. Sula Nichols and Don Case were both there, both lost their houses, but neither spoke. Micah and Ross Curtis were both there from Apple Pie Ridge, and we got to hear their perspectives, particularly Micha’s, who was grandly applauded. Don McQueen also spoke about his experience, working with Blaze Engineering to build dozer lines, deal with the mandatory evacuation, and the sheriff’s response. Too many stories to repeat, but all well received, all applauded, and all heartfelt.

(Wile E. Coyote found on the side of Highway One on the way to meeting)

It would seem that the MCSO threatened many people with arrest for leaving their property during the emergency, while actually only arresting one, Ross Curtis. Others were handcuffed and then released. The one consistent theme, was, first, the FACT of the mandatory evacuation, which had never happened before, as far as anyone can remember, and second, the MCSO’s response to it. Neighbors weren’t allowed to help neighbor. That’s one of the best things about this community, neighbors DO help neighbors. This is not the big city, where one doesn’t know one’s neighbors. This is like most rural communities, where people still help one another. Telling us we could not, does not sit well.

Besides our Congressman, Sam Farr, our Supervisor, Dave Potter, and a representative from State Senator Laird’s Office, as well as various other County Officials, there was quite a presence by the Monterey Sheriff’s Office, but not the Sheriff, Kanalakis, himself. His presence is being “requested” by Dave and Sam for our next meeting on August 12th. Now, that ought to be interesting.

In the mean time, I hope to see some of you once again at the Neighbor-to-Neighbor Gala on August 9th at 6 pm, at the Monterey Conference Center to raise money for the fire brigades and the Big Sur Relief fund.