From Weather West, aka, Daniel Swain: “The good news: significant, perhaps even fire “season ending” rains possible across much of Northern California by late next week. The bad news: some models suggesting heavy rainfall capable of causing significant post-fire flood/debris flow concerns near #CampFire.” Looks like Big Sur is in the 2 to 3” area. So, is this significant enough to close the gates on Mud Creek and Paul’s Slide? I guess we will see 48 hours out.
In the San Jose Mercury News is a very detailed and comprehensive report on the state of the slide and the current work on it, with a series of photos taken by Vern Fischer of the Herald.
You can view it here: https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/09/big-sur-nearly-a-year-after-massive-mud-creek-slide-project-intensifies/
Here are a couple of the photos showing current cracks:
(Photo by Vern Fischer)
I have highlighted some new cracks. It is impossible to tell if this is of any significance from a photo, but it would appear the project manager is checking them out, and doesn’t seem to be worried about any imminent threat.
Here is the entrance from the north:
(Photo by Vern Fischer) (Note, this appears to be an earlier shot as the containers are in this photo and they have since been removed)
And here is the arial view. The red line marks where the road will probably go (my guess), if it doesn’t already, but it could be dropped down to the lower bench, if needed, it looks like.
Following Flash Flood Warning from the National Weather Service.
Bulletin – EAS Activation Requested
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Francisco Ca
958 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The National Weather Service In The San Francisco Bay Area Has Issued A
* Flash Flood Warning For…
Southwestern Monterey County In Central California…
* Until 600 PM PDT Sunday
* At 957 AM PDT…Doppler Radar And Automated Rain Gauges Indicated
Heavy Rain Falling Across The Warned Area. Flash Flooding Is
Expected To Begin Shortly.
* Some Locations That Will Experience Flooding Include…
Sobranes Burn Area…Big Sur Village…Lucia…
Tassajara Hot Springs…Gorda…Jamesburg…
Carmel Valley Village…Pico Blanco Campground…
Cachagua Near The Los Padres Dam…
Julia Pfeiffer Burns State Park…Andrew Molera State Park…
San Clemente Dam…Partington Ridge…Esalen Institute…
Big Sur Raws And Arroyo Seco Raws.
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions…
Move Away From Recently Burned Areas. Life-Threatening Flooding Of
Creeks…Roads And Normally Dry Arroyos Is Likely. The Heavy Rains
Will Likely Trigger Rockslides…Mudslides And Debris Flows In Steep
Terrain…Especially In And Around These Areas
10:00 pm – from CHP website:
Details 00440 9:20 PM Trfc Collision-No Inj 3700 MM1 SR1 1/2 JNO JULIA PF BURNS STATE PARK Monterey
Detail Information
9:50 PM 3 [8] 1039 27-S6 AT OFC WITH CAL TRANS INFO
9:42 PM 2 [6] VEH RHS PER RP
9:26 PM 1 [2] 1125 LARGE BOULDERS 1/2 MI JNO JULIA PFEIFFER BURNS TATE PARK AROUND THE CORNER // 2 VEH TC – RP LEFT VEH’S HERE
Unit Information
9:32 PM 3 Unit Assigned
9:32 PM 2 Unit Enroute
9:33 PM 1 Unit Cleared
8:49 pm – wow! .67″ of rain per hour is the rate. It’s gone down to .39″
3:30 pm – I have no clue what this means, and no details noted. I do know we only have a Willow Springs CT, no Willow Glen! I do know that this is ONE of the places electronic signs are put when there are slides or other road conditions, but that’s all I know that might be applicable.
Details 00242 2:40 PM Request CalTrans Notify Willow Glen BIG SUR WILLOW GLEN C/T
10:00 am – NOAA discussion for today:
THIS ONE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSH HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MOST INTENSE RAIN RATES ARE BEHIND US AND THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE MODERATE IN
INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES IN THE HILLS…AND PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO 3INCHES ALONG SOUTHWEST-FACING COASTAL SLOPES.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. BUT FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. IN FACT…DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY RIGHT ON THROUGH TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
Good day to make a 15-bean soup with left-over turkey. Putting off making a fire as cooking all day, and the housekeeping I plan on for today, too – forget the floor with 5 dogs tracking in mud all day, but other things need doing.
7:30 am – (oh my, my dogs let me sleep in!) Checking in with the CHP website, it appears the two slides from last night are cleared, and Cal-Trans is working at another – “Old Faithful” let loose. Interesting, since it is draped. Here is what it says:
Detail Information
7:45 AM 4 [10] A27-014 JNO MM 41 LRG BOULDERS PARTIAL 1125 IN NB LANE / CALTRANS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE THEM BUT NO SHOULDER IN AREA
6:29 AM 3 [7] 1039 ROGER BARNES – THEY WERE TURNED ON LAST NIGHT AND ALL OF THEM BELOW PLUS SOME ADDITIONAL ONES TURNED ON
6:25 AM 2 [5] RESIDENT HAS PUSHED MOST OO RDWAY / STILL PARTIAL 1125
6:16 AM 1 [1] ,,,, LRG ROCK SLIDE 1125 NB LANE COMPLETELY AND SB LANE PARTIALLY
Okay, water is boiling for coffee, so enjoy your day, stay safe and DRIVE SLOWLY!
Tuesday afternoon saw another blow to the Big Sur State Park, who has suffered set-back after set back toward its goal to open by Memorial Day. I think Mother Nature is telling us she is not ready for millions of visitors to her scarred and healing hills. When she tries to tell us gently, we sometimes don’t hear her, so she has to YELL to be heard.
These photos by Rain Greenslate, Chief of Maintenance Big Sur tell the story so well. She and Jo-ann are sending more tomorrow. Thanks ladies for sharing these with us and I will post as many of them tonight as I can, and more tomorrow!!
9:00 am – The Herald is reporting the road expected to open by mid-day. Cal-Trans is predicting one lane open by about 1 pm. Stay tuned for further updates, as they become available. And the photo, when the internet fairies allow.
I do not know who provided these, it may have been Rene, but I would like to give credit to the photographer. Here is one of Highway One:
8:00 am – I received an additional 1/2 in. overnight, for the storm, 1.25″, for the season, 33.75″
Here is a shot taken by Rene Robles of the parking lot at the Big Sur Lodge late yesterday afternoon. Be patient with me, if it takes a while to get it uploaded. Well, I will get it loaded when I can. In the meantime, there is an article in today’s Herald about last night’s closure. There is also an article about the fugitive who shot himself in Big Sur a few days ago. The mudslide article is at: http://www.montereyherald.com/ci_12096953?nclick_check=1
5:00 am – it continues to rain, heavy at times. While CHP is not reporting the closure, anymore, I cannot imagine that it opened during the night, given conditions. Often times, old incidents will drop off their website. There were unconfirmed reports that one lane was open for a time, last night around 9:30 pm. Will report more, when I know more.
