Again, I continue to post updates throughout the day in today’s Storm Watch post, down below the satellite models, but I wanted to post these photos Debbie Reed sent me of Juan Higuera Creek, the Big Sur River, from the Grange parking lot, and of her place. These were taken today and last night.

I will continue posting today’s reports throughout the day, including rain totals, road conditions, wind reports, and current satellites in the Storm Watch for today below, but I also thought you might enjoy seeing the updated satellite models. These begin this morning at 10 am and continue through Saturday, one per each 24 hour period.

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

4:00 pm – the hail storm at 1 pm was short, but wicked, and then there has been no further news to report today. Looks like it is over until tomorrow morning (NEXRAD is still showing some sprinkles coming our way), when the next wave is expected to hit. That one is predicted to be of less severity, and involve less winds, but the one on Wednesday is predicted to be stronger than that received today.

1:00 pm – a nice two-hour break in the rain, and now it is hailing!

11:00 am – rain update: 1.9 in Big Sur Valley today; 3.35 up here. 3/4 inch just in the last hour!!

11:00 am – ROAD HAZARD: CAL-TRANS IN PROCESS OF CLEARING DEBRIS AT MM 31 (SANTA LUCIA RANCH.)

And I just heard a huge crash, scared both the dogs and I, and found that a pole, which had been dug into the ground, had fallen, blocking the door. Fortunately, I was able to kick at the bottom of the door enough to move the pole enough to open the door. Otherwise, it would have been to crawl out the emergency exit window. That would have been fun!!

10 am – 2.6 inches of rain so far today. Time to empty the rain gauge, as I did not do it last night! That makes 4.5 inches this week, and 31.1 inches for the season.

An excerpt from NOAA discussion for today: “DAY1 PROD HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.”

9:30 am – ROAD HAZARD – FLOODING ON HIGHWAY ONE JSO OF ANDREW MOLERA SP PER CHP

9:15 am – In a twist of irony, scanner traffic is reporting downed power lines near Garrappata have started a fire. Crews responding. Well, that one can’t be going anywhere, not with this rain!! CHP has it as two separate fires near Garrappata Creek Bridge.

I’ve been guessing winds gusting up to at least 75 mph, and the gauges at Highland/Big Creek confirm that is what is being recorded there. Confirmed with my neighbor, who has a wind gauge, it is gusting around 75 mph up here. Although, I am a bit more exposed than my neighbor, so my winds could be a bit stronger. Are we having fun, yet?

8:30 am – one inch of rain in the last 1 and 1/2 hours. Up to 1.6 so far today. Having internet problems, so no pics until that is resolved. Wind still HOWLING! At times, it sounds like a freight train rollin’ on through.

NWS Satellite shot:

7:30 am – ROAD HAZARD – CHP reports vehicle hit a rock 1/4 mile south of Gorda and is leaking gas. Tow truck ETA 90 mins.

7:15 am ROAD HAZARD – CHP reports a traffic collision at Sycamore Canyon and Highway One, no details. CHP and PG&E enroute. Cones out by RP. Source in Big Sur Valley says it is a PG&E truck that went up the bank and landed on its side.

7:00 am – The wind started around 1:30 am. I don’t know when the rain started. .6 inches so far this morning, 2.5 inches for the week, 29.1 inches for the season. Winds are gusting quite high currently, and tossing anything that isn’t tied down – even was blowing around my gennie, so had to move it. Current satellite pics when I can. Internet is not cooperating.

6;20 pm – CHP REPORTS A “TRAFFIC HAZARD IN THE NORTH BOUND LANE OF HIGHWAY ONE, JNO OF TREEBONES NEAR 71895 SR1… LARGE BOLDER NEAR MM 10.” GORDA IS AT 10.2, 10 IS SOUTH OF GORDA AND TREEBONES IS NORTH OF GORDA. CURRENT CHP INFO IS THIS IS NORTH OF WILLOW CREEK BRIDGE, which makes sense.

5:00 pm – it has been very quiet the last two hours. I received a total of 1.9 inches today, for a season total of 28.5 inches. Big Sur Valley reports 1 inch for today. Tomorrow’s storm is predicted to be stronger.

3:30 rain has stopped for the last 1/2 hour.

2:30 pm – current rain total for today, 1.75 inches and still climbing. Current radar map to follow when the internet allows:

1:30 pm – current rain total for today, 1.5 inches.

12:30 pm – up to one inch, so far.

Current (noon) radar

11:30 am – ROAD REPORTS – Traffic Accident near Radio Point around 10 am of solo vehicle on roof, in flames. CHP on the scene now at 11:30 am and rescue going on as I type. There is another accident JSO of Bixby of vehicle over the side 120 ft. from roadway. Two injured have been recovered as I type. Pole leaning into roadway JSO Big Sur at 10 am. HEAVY rain being reported south of Pt. Lobos. Obviously dangerous conditions, so if you must drive, drive VERY carefully! And this is the just the first, “mild” storm.

11:30 am – looks like 6/10ths now, or about a 1/10th an hour up here on my roost.

10:30 am – Contacts in Pebble Beach and Big Sur Valley state it is raining in both places, as it is here. No longer steady drizzle, but definite rain. NOW up to 1/2 inch!

9:30 am Current radar map

8:00 am – almost 1/2 an inch of rain last night/this morning –correction, received 4/10ths — and I have no idea when it started. No rain in San Jose. More reports as they are gathered or submitted. Three reports issued by NOAA:

One…HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY…

Two … THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE…SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SERIES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEK. DUE TO MANY DAYS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION…HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION…THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BOTH OVER THE WATER AND LAND. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION…A LARGE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 25 FEET BY WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

Three … MOST IMPORTANTLY…WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS WHEN FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HAPPENING. BY THIS POINT THOUGH…THE MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD ALL STILL BE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN PICKS UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO HEAD
INLAND. THIS COULD MEAN SEVERAL WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THAT TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD EASILY REACH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE WORST OF IT OVER THE COASTAL RANGES.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO HIGHLIGHT A HAZARDOUS FLOOD SCENARIO THAT IS DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SURE OF THE LEVEL OF SEVERITY THIS WEEKS EVENTS WILL REACH…CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AT A MINIMUM.

Rain drops reported in Pebble Beach at 7 pm. Just a few drops so far.

Obviously, these are just computer models of what we can expect for the upcoming week, starting tonight at 10 pm. These allow us to see visually why NOAA is predicting as it is.

Tonight at 10 pm

Sunday at 10 am

Sunday at 10 pm

Monday at 10 am

Monday at 10 pm

Tuesday at 10 am

Tuesday at 10 pm

Wednesday at 10 am

Wednesday at 10 pm

Thursday at 10 am

Thursday at 10 pm

Friday at 10 am

Friday at 10 pm

>
Saturday at 10 am

Of course, these are only models, and Mother Nature does not always abide by our models.

6:30 am – beautifully clear sunrise. Checked all NOAA reports and little change. Everything is still on track as previously reported. Will continue to report as things roll in and if any additional information is discerned or sent my way. I’ll also try to get today’s satellite pics up later.

This is the current (as of 1/15/10 at 10 pm) hazardous outlook concerns regarding hydrology from NOAA:

AS THE FIRST AND WEAKEST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH…ONLY LIGHTER RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WITHRAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY…INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHWARD. BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH 3 INCHES A POSSIBILITY OVER THE COASTAL RANGES. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD THERE ARE NO CRITICAL HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS OTHER THAN NUISANCE AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MANY SMALLER
STREAMS SHOULD START TO SHOW AN AMPLE RESPONSE TO THE RAINS BUT NO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST. OF NOTE BY MONDAY NIGHT…FOR THE MOST PART SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR SATURATION AND ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD RESULT IN RAPID AND SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON
LOCAL STREAMS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY NIGHT THE RAIN PICKS UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING…THIS TIME A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MOST IMPORTANTLY…TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS WHEN HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS BECOME THE MOST SERIOUS AND FLASH FLOODING ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS COULD BECOME A REALITY. BY THIS POINT THOUGH…THE MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD ALL STILL BE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN PICKS UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL STORM OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNTIL WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING INLAND. THIS COULD MEAN SEVERAL WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THAT TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD EASILY REACH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES. THE WORST OF IT WOULD CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AROUND THE COASTAL RANGES.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO UNDERSCORE A HAZARDOUS FLOOD SCENARIO THAT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHAT LEVEL OF SEVERITY THIS WEEKS EVENTS WILL REACH…AT A MINIMUM CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.

EVERYONE NEEDS TO SERIOUSLY PLAN FOR THEIR WEEK AHEAD. THIS IS THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE WINTER SO FAR AND IF YOU COMBINE THE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS THAT MAY DEVELOP…CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. PEOPLE LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS OR
OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING…PARTICULARLY OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD. REMEMBER…IT TAKES AS LITTLE AS ONLY 1 FOOT OF MOVING WATER TO SWEEP AWAY A VEHICLE.

5:00 pm update. Extra Dog Food? Check. Extra Gas? Check. Extra People Food? Check. Books, movies, work. All hunkered in and ready to ride it out. It is 50 degrees outside, but feels much colder due to the wind chill factor. I have moved my digital thermometer to make it more accessible at night, at least for the coming events. Otherwise, the only real changes to what has already been forecast, is the possibility of a few showers tonight, in some areas. Let me know if you get any. Keep your eye on the sky, NOAA weather alerts, and on the road and streams for possible mudslides. If you haven’t stocked up, anticipated power outages, and stream blockages, please do so tomorrow. And don’t forget your pets!

I am busy preparing for the next series of storms, the first, mild one to hit tomorrow. Here is a IR satellite map of the US.

And here is one of the Pacific:

And this link shows a fascinating animated look at the storms up to 180 hours out: storm surfing

Here is the weather watch from NWS for the Santa Lucia Mountains and the Los Padres National Forest:

THE FIRST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA STARTING LATE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE SERIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD MORE RAIN INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.

A SECOND BREAK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT AND MOST POWERFUL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK APPROACHES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER WEILL INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 3-5 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 FOR THE VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHOWERS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE.. A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD…TOTAL RAINFALL COULD REACH 10-15 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE WETTEST LOCATIONS. IN THE VALLEYS…4-8 INCHES.

Without being an alarmist, and in the spirit of preparedness, I offer you the following insights. I received a notice issued by a Southern California Emergency Response group from one of my readers. It is predicting unprecedented events over the next few weeks. I have posted the NWS language below the satellite shots, but the bottom line is, BE PREPARED, BIG SUR!!

Here are a couple of today’s satellite images:

And from the NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTERS in Maryland:
“ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 TO 4 SURGES COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE FAST PAC FLOW THIS PERIOD EACH WITH ROUNDS OF HVY PCPN. AT THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO COME IN AROUND SAT-SUN..MON..TUES AND ANOTHER THURS-FRI WITH MORE TO FOLLOW. MONDAYS SURGE HITS THE ENTIRE COAST FROM VANCOUVER SOUTH TO PT CONCEPTION BUT THEN AS THE HTS FALL AND THE JET CORE SHIFTS SWD THE TARGET AREA WILL BE MORE INTO CENTRAL CA AND SRN CA TUES ONWARD. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN OVERALL RANGE OF 7-12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA AND ESPECIALLY SOCAL. SOME LOCAL FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH 20 INCH LIQUID
AMOUNTS. VERY HVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FLOODING MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY.”