Category: 2014-2015 El Nino

End of June Weather

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Doesn’t look like we will see any per NOAA forecast.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AGAIN EXPECTED SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. OVERALL…MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL AREAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS COOLS ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

El Niño Pedictions

From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:

The model predictions of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6), most likely transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

And on another note:

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