Frost possible
Category: 2014-2015 El Nino
Upcoming weather
From my SLO weather person:
“The associated cold front is forecast to drop southward through
the Bay Area by late Wednesday, then slide down to Big Sur early
Thursday morning.
This cold front may be just strong enough produce a few light
rain showers in San Luis Obispo County by late Thursday morning.
Given the mild nature of the system, snow levels are expected
to remain above 6,000 feet with 3 to 5 inches of new snow possible
across the northern and central Sierra.
This cold front will be followed by strong to gale-force (25- to
38-mph) northwesterly winds along the coastline and clearing
skies. Another round of Santa Lucia winds will develop during
the night and morning hours Friday into Saturday.
The long-range models are suggesting a wet-weather pattern for
San Luis Obispo County for the middle and latter part of next
week (Nov. 18 through 21).”
And here is the prediction from NOAA, Monterey:
“TWO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE FIRST WILL BE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE SECOND EVENT SHOULD BE LATE NEXT MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FIRST EVENT DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/2″ LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS WITH GENERALLY .2″-.4″ AROUND SF BAY. THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS A POSSIBLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY OCCUR. STILL QUITE A FEW DAYS DOWN THE ROAD, HOWEVER SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE BRINGING HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF RAIN.”
Let’s hope they are right … We could certainly use more rain.
Raining Cats and Dogs
Midnight … Ended up with 2.17″ for Halloween. Nice. Hopefully we will get more on Saturday. Enjoy.
4:30 pm – The storm front hit here at 3:25 pm, when the rain rate per hour reached 1.47″/hour. We have received .41″ so far today, and the rain rate per hour has been primarily between 1/2″ and 1 and 1/2 inch for the last hour.
I am SO glad I decided to take a pass on going out today … my ability to get home, of some concern to me. I have been able to enjoy the sound of this first real rain of the season, the company of my dogs, hot chocolate, and soon, a fire in the wood stove. The simple pleasures of living in the wilds of Big Sur …they nourish me .
Oops, just hit over 3 and 1/2″ per hour rain rate. Yeehaw!
Happy Halloween, BSMAAC, and weather
The BSMAAC meeting is this Friday, Halloween. On the Agenda is the introduction of the new USFS Los Padres Supervisor, Cal Trans project updates, Presentation to Big Sur Lodge, and presentation by B-Sage, as well as reports by member agencies.
Also, rain is on tap to start by Halloween morn. Most welcome, of course.
Finally, from my friend Dan Danborn:
And don’t forget Nepenthe’s Bal Masque which benefits our very own Big Sur Volunteer Fire Department. See Nepenthe .com for tickets!
Rain Forecast
For the period of Oct 15-19 – looks like a 40% chance of above average precipitation for Big Sur.
However, this morning’s forecast brings rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then the rest of the week is up for grabs.
” THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE WEATHER BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EITHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND…BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CA NEXT WEEKEND AND KEEPS OUR AREA ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY AFTER WEDNESDAY. THUS THE FORECAST BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.”
So far, Jade Festival weather yesterday was foggy in the am, then clear most of the afternoon before the fog rolled in late in the day. (I watched it from my ridge top all day for you!) now, it is down into the fog for me!
Upcoming rain predictions
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN MOVING THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND MIDWEEK AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOT MAKE IT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO ABOUT THE MONTEREY PENINSULA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER…THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE QUITE WELL IN PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE GEM MODEL…ON THE OTHER HAND…INDICATES MUCH MORE MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH AND THIS MODEL SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES CONSIDERABLY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EXPECTATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM…BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS WE DRAW NEARER TO THE PRECIP EVENT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE MOSTLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS…ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THESE TOTALS ARE BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR IF THE 00Z GEM SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY.
More Rain?
Rain Report – 9/18/14
10:00 pm – final total, .38″ an acceptable total. It’s a start.
6:30 am – wow, the rain is increasing. It is now up to .19″ total. One more report at 7:00, then I am off to town, away from my rain gauge. LOL, I laugh at the joy every 1/100th of an inch brings me this morning, and know that this winter, I will only be reporting gains of an inch at a time. All is perspective.
6:00 am – rain rate is up a bit to .09″ an hour, and the total for the day/month/year is now .15″ double what was predicted. I hope the whole Big Sur Coast is enjoying this phenomena.
5:00 am – I am up to almost a tenth of an inch, now. As a side note: all my windows facing north or west are covered with rain but those facing east or south are completely dry. Guess we can tell the direction of this storm, as predicted …
Woke at 4:00 am – to the first, soft, gentle, glorious rain of the season. My high zoot rain gauge is measuring again, finally. It says we are getting .05″ per hour, and that we have received .05″ thus far. It is enough to settle some of the dust that has been plaguing me for months … It is enough that the skins of earth, plants, and critters alike are soaking up the precious moisture in glee … It is enough to get and keep me excited so that I will probably not get back to sleep even though I must be up in two hours to make an early appointment in town. It’s fine with me. I’ll take lack of sleep for a bit of the wet stuff at this point! (Sorry, in my sleepy haze, I originally thought it was Friday. I’ve changed the date in the title to reflect that it is indeed Thursday.)
Rain Tonight?
From NOAA this afternoon:
“AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS…AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
.DISCUSSION…AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY…GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
OVERNIGHT…THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. MEANWHILE…INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.”
“The Sky was as clear as a window one morning. It was so the next morning, and the next, and on every morning that followed until it was hard to remember how rain felt, or how a field looked, green, and moist with life so that a naked foot sank into it. All the things that grew paused in their growing, leaves curled, and each creature turned his back on the sun.” (Beryl Markham, West with the Night.)
NOAA is now predicting 07/100ths of an inch of rain all the way down to Big Sur Wednesday night into Thursday. I covered my cement, just in case. It won’t ease our drought, but at least we might remember how rain felt.
(Barbara, I really will get this lovely book back to you soon.)
Could it be?
Got this weather forecast in my box, but not holding my breath, especially this far south.
“A cold front will produce rain showers in Northern California on
Wednesday into Thursday. A few rain showers are expected to reach
as far south has Monterey Bay on Thursday.”