Per the CHP website, the highway is closed in both directions due to three slides between MM 38 and 42. (South of Nepenthe, between Partington and Grimes Canyon) Barricades are in place.
Category: 2014-2015 El Nino
Weather Report, 12/3/14, Plaskett Top, Big Sur
8:00 pm – 1.05″for the day. More tomorrow.
9:00 am – received a total of 1.43″ until midnight last night. This morning I am up to .28″ so far. 2.09″ for this three-day month. The winds gusted to 47 mph at 8 am this morning. Still pretty gusty. I haven’t checked, but given the state of Plaskett on Monday afternoon, I am certain it is now impassable. With the winds, I am also relatively certain there are a number of trees down the back way, but have no way of knowing if they are blocking the road. The major concern is the 1 mile to the south Coast Ridge Rd and then the 2 miles to Prewitt. A number of chain-saw toting individuals use it from then on. I have no where l have to be until Saturday, and I am well stocked. I hear Big Sur got even more than I did. Add your totals to the comment section below.
Duck, Incoming!
6:45 pm
The World is full of Rainbows
Taken today by Brendon Shave
Weather Report, Dec. 2, 2014, Plaskett Top, Big Sur
Noon – wind gusts up to 45 mph. Steady, usually above 20.
7:15am – the joyous sound of the filling of our creeks, streams, rivers and waterfall. Up here, I have received .50″ but it is raining at the rate of .74″/hour, just a few minutes ago, currently only .24″ so if this keeps up, that total is going to rapidly climb! The maximum wind gusts were 24 mph at 4 am.
To get an idea of how fast it is coming down, in the 15 mins since I wrote this, and while trying to upload it, it is up to .65″ holy, moley! And a new high rate of 1.84″/hour at 7:30! Yowsa!
The Storm Continues
7:00 am – What happened to the break in the weather expected for today, before the BIG one rolls in tomorrow? It was raining at the rate of 1/2″ an hour just moments ago. Maybe an isolated shower? Was going to try to slip out … But …
And now. 20 minutes later, I have received .12″
Storms, debris flow, and rock slides
I want rain, but 9″?
Just received this notice from the National Weather Service. Please pass this along to anyone you know living near a possible debris flow along Sycamore Canyon Road. Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving.
Good morning,
This heads-up briefing is targeted at public safety and emergency response personnel in the Big Sur area of Monterey County – to heighten awareness of potential impacts from debris flow/slides in Sycamore Canyon near the Pfeiffer Burn Scar.
Please contact our office at 831-656-1717 any time – a forecaster available 24 hours a day for immediate support issues.
OVERVIEW
Strong Pacific storms will bring periods of rainfall to the area beginning by Saturday noontime and persisting through Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times and will result in the most significant rainfall of the season to date.
TIMING
Rain begins by noontime Saturday and continues through Tuesday/Wednesday. The time period of greatest concern for heavy rain will be Saturday afternoon-Sunday. A secondary period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday.
Wind will increase overnight Saturday and into Sunday.
Flooding/Slides: Threat will increase as rain accumulations increase with greatest risks during and immediately following the heaviest rainfall.
DETAILS
Rain: Rainfall totals from Saturday through Wednesday will range from 2 to 4 inches with up to 9 inches or more expected in the higher mountains.
Wind: Southwest winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH at the coast and up to 60 MPH in the higher mountains. Potential for trees and downed power lines.
Flooding and Slides: Flooding of small streams as well as low lying, and poorly drained areas is expected. Debris flow potential from Pfeiffer Burn Scar area in Sycamore Canyon during and following periods of most intense rainfall is high.
Rockfalls can be expected in the area and along Highway 1 due to the ground becoming wet and the heavy rain. Thresholds that we will use for debris flow concern:
0.70 inches in 15 minutes
0.90 inches in 1 hour
1.50 inches in 3 hours
2.00 inches in 6 hours
—
Logan Johnson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service
San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CA
http://www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
After Thanksgiving Storms
Looks like it could be a serious. Start preparing now. (I know I said I was taking the rest of the week off … I am, I really am, but thought we should all be aware of this ASAP.)
From my SLO meteorologist:
“A low pressure system will approach the Central Coast on Saturday
with increasing southerly winds and clouds. Periods of rain will
start Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning.
A much stronger storm system will move over San Luis Obispo County
Sunday evening into Monday with moderate gale-force to fresh gale
-force (32- to 46-mph) southerly winds late Sunday into Monday.
Periods of heavy rain is expected to start Sunday evening and
continue through Monday. Rain showers are expected to continue
into Tuesday/Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts could range between
4 and 6 inches in the Santa Lucia mountains above San Simeon,
Cambria and Cayucos. Other San Luis Obispo locations are expected
to range between 1 and 3 inches.”
Here is John’s graphic:
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Here is NOAA Monterey’s current report:
“RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA (Ed. Note – that’s us) COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.
ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT…UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.”
Could be a fun 4-5 days.
3-month precipitation and drought conditions
Issued by NOAA today, Nov. 20:
If this prediction is accurate, it is good news for California. Along those lines, I received .30″ for this last storm, and ready for the next! Just finished charging up my batteries, firewood is loaded into my inside wood box, chili is heating in the crock pot. Yes, I am ready. There is a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon. Could be fun.
Oh, and yes, there were a series of earthquakes last night around 11 pm, centered just south of San Juan Bautista. The largest measured 4.2.
Storm Systems
From Dave Allen, the art and science teacher at Pacific Valley School:
