Upcoming Storm Systems as of March 16, 2017

From John Lindsey, SLO meterologist:

“A low pressure system will approach the coast and will deliver strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and rain Monday night into Tuesday. Showers will persist into Wednesday. Snow levels will gradually lower to 6,000 feet by Tuesday.

A wet and mild atmospheric river type weather system will move across the Central Coast Friday through Saturday for heavy rain and gusty southerly winds.”

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From the ever anonymous Paul H.:

Hello All, just real quick follow up that rains begin Monday afternoon and continue through extended. Next weekend (march 25-26) there is a possibility of a moderate to strong atmospheric river. This progressive pattern developing should bring substantial rain accumulations that look highly possible by middle of week after next, thus slide/bridge/road repairs are going to have delayed time line set backs!! If wondering the teleconnections supporting this wet pattern are negative arctic oscillation, negative north atlantic oscillation, positive enso ( el nino southern oscillation), MJO phase 5 propagating east to phase 6 (this supports southern extension of Pacific jetstream off Eurasia), and positive Pacific North America Pattern. Bottomline our mother earth is alligning for moist air masses to bombard the lower latitudinal southern extent of the Northern Hemispheric jet stream.
Cheers, paul h

Time to make sure all your restocking is done. I will be doing the same.

Rain & Road Conditions, 1/11/17

Good morning Again, everyone!
1/11/17
9:00 AM

LOCALS now have access to and from Ragged Pt. to Pitkins (PM 21.3). There is still the residual slide at Mud Creek (PM 8.8) but LOCALS will be allowed around it. Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6) is still active and closed. Slide clearing is still being done at Fernwood (PM 47.03)

The below info. remain the same:

To accommodate LOCALS, this morning, January 11, starting at 8 AM and EVERY TWO HOURS thereafter Caltrans is going to accommodate LOCAL TRAFFIC ONLY through the Fernwood Closure area for up to 15 minutes if conditions allow.

The plan is to have school buses do their usual routes–without having the parents meet the kids on the north side of the closure this afternoon–If anything changes, we’ll let you know.

As for the update TO THE PUBLIC, HWY. 1 STILL REMAINS CLOSED from Ragged Pt. (SLO PM 72.87) to Fernwood (MON PM 47.03). The hotline recording will remain the same. Another update will be provided this afternoon around 4 pm.

Susana Z. Cruz
Caltrans District 5
Public Information Officer/
********************************************

8:00 am from Cal Trans:

Good morning everyone,

Although the slides are still at multiple locations, things are starting to look brighter.

To accommodate LOCALS, this morning, January 11, starting now (at 8 AM) and EVERY TWO HOURS thereafter Caltrans is going to accommodate LOCAL TRAFFIC ONLY through the Fernwood Closure area for up to 15 minutes if conditions allow.

The plan is to have school buses do their usual routes–without having the parents meet the kids on the north side of the closure this afternoon–If anything changes, we’ll let you know.

As for the update TO THE PUBLIC, HWY. 1 STILL REMAINS CLOSED from Ragged Pt. (SLO PM 72.87) to Fernwood (MON PM 47.03). The hotline recording will remain the same. Another update will be provided this afternoon around 4 pm.

Susana Z. Cruz
Caltrans District 5
Public Information Officer

8:00 am – there are 25 incidents reported on CHP website, including a blockage of CVR at Tassajara of the WB lane. Santa Cruz is a mess, and other areas not fairing any better. Be safe out there.

My internet appears to be working today, but just in case it goes on strike again,  please feel free to post your observations, knowledge, and information in the comments section below. Cal Trans said it would TRY to open one lane for locals for 15 minutes every 2 hours starting at 8 am, LOCALS AND EMERGENCY TRAFFIC ONLY! Of course, this would be dependent on weather and slide behavior.

Big Sur River peaked last night higher than Sunday at above 12 feet, I am told.

bigsurkate

Upcoming Rain Event(s)

11:00 AM – UPDATE FROM NWS:

“FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Sobreanes and Chimney Burn Scar areas
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or downslope of the Soberanes and Chimney Burn Scar Areas. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for your area. The FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12/15/2016 10:00 AM to 12/16/2016 4:00 AM PST. A WATCH is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so.”

Rain will return to our region starting on Tuesday and be mostly focused on the North Bay at first. By Thursday a second system with a cold front will produce widespread rainfall that could be heavy at times along with gusty winds.

UPDATED INFORMATION
· This is the first statement for the upcoming systems.
IMPACTS

*Impact (Rain from the first system):
· (Did not include as the bulk of the impact is north of SF)
*Impact (Rain from the second system):
· Widespread rain can be expected starting late Wednesday night and down to the remainder of our region on Thursday as a cold front goes through.
· Rain will likely be moderate to heavy at times as the front approaches. Any locations that have prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain will have the potential for flooding.
· Debris flows are of concern especially around coastal ranges and recent burn scars.
· Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches for coastal ranges with locally more than 6 inches possible. For urban spots generally 3/4″ to 1 3/4″ can be expected. .
o Please see attach graphic (part 2) for potential rainfall amounts. However, please do not focus on exact values.
o Please not that the bulk of the rain may fall during a short period leading to a heightened risk of flooding.
· Driving conditions will likely be poor with ponding on roadways along with low visibility.
· Locations with poor drainage and intersections and on/off ramps prone to flooding will likely have flooding.
*Impact (Wind from the second system):
· South to southeast winds will increase Wednesday evening into Thursday as a cold front approaches our region.
· The strongest winds will be on Thursday with many urban locations likely to see gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
· Higher elevation spots will likely see gusts of 35 to 45 mph with some areas gusting to over 55 mph.
o Please see attach graphic for general wind gusts Thursday afternoon. However, please be aware that peak gusts could be higher.
· Locally strong winds will make for difficult driving conditions.
· The winds could topple trees and power lines especially for locations that are susceptible to winds that funnel in from the south or higher elevation locations.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:
· Currently none in effect although watches and advisories are likely to be issued as the event gets closer.
· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Moderate to high for rainfall and wind.
LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region..
Weather Summary
Wet weather returns as two systems will bring a return to rainy conditions to our region. The first system will mostly be focused north of San Francisco with moderate amounts of rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A bigger concern is with the second system mainly on Thursday that will bring widespread moderate to even heavy rainfall to our region as a cold front goes through. Gusty southerly winds can also be expected with the second system.
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Calm Before the Next Storm

Actually, it is a series of storms, progged to hit us every day this week but Thursday, starting late tonight/early tomorrow.

And this gorgeous shot is by Lisa Kleissner.

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Thanks for sharing, Lisa!

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Atmospheric River

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Graphic and great article from Scientific American blog

The flow pattern of the atmospheric river now battering the West Coast is classic. The University of Wisconsin at Madison maintains a terrific Web site that shows the flows in real time, updated every five minutes. A snapshot from last night is below. The dark red swath across the equator is the tropical rain band that is usually present; the atmospheric river is the sweeping jet of water vapor (blue in the image) that shoots off towards the U.S.

University of Wisconsin website

December Storm Graphics

At 4:55 pm, the rain rate was 2.95″/ hour … At 5:15 it was 3.13″ an hour. Hopefully, just a short-lived cell.whew!

From Dave Allen of Pacific Valley School

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Here is another graphic

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I know I haven’t seen the sun up here in a week! More this afternoon and evening, then a break (although I have to point out that every so called “break” predicted thus far, it has rained, at least up here), another storm on Monday/Tuesday and then another on Thursday.

The Storm Continues

7:00 am – What happened to the break in the weather expected for today, before the BIG one rolls in tomorrow? It was raining at the rate of 1/2″ an hour just moments ago. Maybe an isolated shower? Was going to try to slip out … But …

And now. 20 minutes later, I have received .12″

What is ahead in the Weather World

Nothing like last week’s weather challenges, but two more rain events are predicted.

DISCUSSION…AS OF 09:03 AM PST WEDNESDAY…PATCHY FOG REMAINS PRESENT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM HALF MOON BAY DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA INLAND TO SALINAS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES THIS MORNING…DO EXPECT FOG TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT, STRONGER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. [Ed. note – tonight for Big Sur] HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DESPITE PWAT VALUES ANALYZED IN THE 1.10″ TO 1.25″ RANGE ACROSS THE REGION…UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FURTHER SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY CAN EXPECT AROUND
0.50″ TO 0.75″ WITH THIS SYSTEM…ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 1″ ARE STILL POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH…COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP 0.25″ TO 0.50″ OF RAINFALL WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10″.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR AREA. 850 MB LEVELS WILL SEE NICE WARMING AND AT THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS SLATED FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BC COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY FOR THE FAR NORTH BAY AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EVENT WILL BE SHORT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE DECENT OUT OF THIS WITH A NICE AR WITH PW AMOUNTS AGAIN OVER 1.25″ STRETCHING ALL OF THE WAY WEST OF HAWAII POINTING DIRECTLY AT THE COAST. COULD EASILY PICK UP MORE THAN 1″ FOR THE NORTH BAY OUT OF THIS WITH 1/4″-1/3″ AROUND SF BAY. AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH TO THE SOUTH WITH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ONLY LOOKING AT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR NEXT WEEK…AFTER THE EVENT ENDING ON SUNDAY, ALL SIGNS POINT TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL IN THE PACIFIC. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

As for me, I’m off to pick up fresh fruits and veggies, get a couple gallons of gas for my back-up generator, and get some propane. Pretty well stocked, otherwise. Enjoy the weather break.