Upcoming Rain Event(s)

11:00 AM – UPDATE FROM NWS:

“FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Sobreanes and Chimney Burn Scar areas
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or downslope of the Soberanes and Chimney Burn Scar Areas. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for your area. The FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12/15/2016 10:00 AM to 12/16/2016 4:00 AM PST. A WATCH is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so.”

Rain will return to our region starting on Tuesday and be mostly focused on the North Bay at first. By Thursday a second system with a cold front will produce widespread rainfall that could be heavy at times along with gusty winds.

UPDATED INFORMATION
· This is the first statement for the upcoming systems.
IMPACTS

*Impact (Rain from the first system):
· (Did not include as the bulk of the impact is north of SF)
*Impact (Rain from the second system):
· Widespread rain can be expected starting late Wednesday night and down to the remainder of our region on Thursday as a cold front goes through.
· Rain will likely be moderate to heavy at times as the front approaches. Any locations that have prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain will have the potential for flooding.
· Debris flows are of concern especially around coastal ranges and recent burn scars.
· Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches for coastal ranges with locally more than 6 inches possible. For urban spots generally 3/4″ to 1 3/4″ can be expected. .
o Please see attach graphic (part 2) for potential rainfall amounts. However, please do not focus on exact values.
o Please not that the bulk of the rain may fall during a short period leading to a heightened risk of flooding.
· Driving conditions will likely be poor with ponding on roadways along with low visibility.
· Locations with poor drainage and intersections and on/off ramps prone to flooding will likely have flooding.
*Impact (Wind from the second system):
· South to southeast winds will increase Wednesday evening into Thursday as a cold front approaches our region.
· The strongest winds will be on Thursday with many urban locations likely to see gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
· Higher elevation spots will likely see gusts of 35 to 45 mph with some areas gusting to over 55 mph.
o Please see attach graphic for general wind gusts Thursday afternoon. However, please be aware that peak gusts could be higher.
· Locally strong winds will make for difficult driving conditions.
· The winds could topple trees and power lines especially for locations that are susceptible to winds that funnel in from the south or higher elevation locations.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:
· Currently none in effect although watches and advisories are likely to be issued as the event gets closer.
· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Moderate to high for rainfall and wind.
LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region..
Weather Summary
Wet weather returns as two systems will bring a return to rainy conditions to our region. The first system will mostly be focused north of San Francisco with moderate amounts of rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A bigger concern is with the second system mainly on Thursday that will bring widespread moderate to even heavy rainfall to our region as a cold front goes through. Gusty southerly winds can also be expected with the second system.
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Storm Report, 3/1/14

10:00 pm – a total of exactly one inch since midnight, bringing the yearly total to 10.25″. Not nearly enough. It is amazingly quiet and peaceful for the first time in days. Bsk signing off.

From NWS, Monterey:

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Sycamore Canyon Rd, by Herald Photographer David Royal

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 08:54 AM PST SATURDAY…THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OFF THE MONTEREY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KMUX RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF PRECIP SPINNING AROUND THE LOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MTS AND BIG SUR COAST/SANTA LUCIA MTS. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS THAT ARE DROPPING A QUICK 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 45-60 MINUTES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO OBSERVED OFF THE BIG SUR COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS WELL.
(At 10 am, I am up to .79″ and there is a break or a lull in the rain, but not the wind.)

8:00 am – Rain continues to rage, with a current total of .64″ Winds also still raging. Roof singing to me. Tried to let the dogs out, but Missy took one look outside, turned around, found a corner, and peed on the floor. Dakota hasn’t been outside since the lightning yesterday afternoon! She had her own accident during the night. She wouldn’t come out from under the bed for HOURS after the thunder and going outside is simply beyond her capabilities when it is raining this hard. At least the other three were brave, well-trained puppies. Just gotta work on those two girls.

5:00 am – the wind woke me up. At 4;52 am, the wind gusts hit 58 mph. Not quite as impressive as yesterday am, but still pretty healthy. A few minutes ago, the gauge said it was raining cats and dogs. (I really must look up the origin of that saying and get back to you on it.) My gauge is currently reading .27″ since midnight. The CHP website is not showing any road closures at this time. As with yesterday, I will continue to monitor conditions and bring you all the latest, so you don’t have to. One stop weather shopping. 😉

Storm Report, 2/28/14

10:00 pm – I’m signing off for the evening. Thus far, I recorded 2.44″ since midnight. Winds are up a bit, again, but nothing like last night. Stay warm, stay dry, and sleep well.

And this is what we have to look forward to tomorrow – at least predicted!

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2:00 pm – thunder and lightning just started. Wind howling again, and up to almost 2″ thus far? Rain rate 2.67″/hour. Whoa, Nellie! Up to 5.14″/hour! Unbelievable! Here comes that 7-8″

20140228-133553.jpgHere is the most recent satellite. Compare it to the last one.

Noon – no rain at the moment, winds calming down, gusts only to 10 mph. Whew! It is time for a nap!

11:00 am – 1.5″ Del Venturi Rd in Ft Hunter Liggett closed. Road still open to Cambria, so far.

20140228-104933.jpg10:00 am – 1.2″, sustained winds of 30 mph. Water spouts off Point Sur per NWS. Lots of fun! 38 degrees and dropping!

9:00 am – road conditions – slide JNO of Garrapata Bridge and Traffic Hazard at Soberanes Point of unknown type. I’m willing to get there are other, unreported as yet problems.

8:00am – Winds gusted to 71 mph this am. Rain totals sitting edging up on 8/10ths, dogs went out during a break in the rain, only to be caught in a down pour. Lid blew off the wood box outside, taking a railing with it, despite being secured. Raining cats and dogs at the moment, at the rate of 2″ per hour. Big, big tree blocking Plaskett per my neighbor, and that’s just the first one. Missy and Dakota got into a dog fight with blood and a torn ear. So, how is your morning going? Add your storm stories this am.20140228-103956.jpg

New and Improved Weather Report

UPDATE 10/29 – total for the storm, .26, as of 7:00, but my gauge is indicating I just got .01″ as I was typing this.

For my first new and improved weather report: it rained last night, it was windy last night, and still gusts up to 25 mph this am. No, seriously, I have some figures for you. I even took photos of the readings on my station, but can’t seem to get them mailed to myself, so I’ll summarize. Overnight, I got .10″ but .08″ came at one time, at around the same time as the maximum wind; maximum wind was 39 mph at 2:49 am; low temp was 39 with a wind chill factor of 32. It is only 42 degrees currently, at 8:30 am.

Okay, I promise, I won’t give a blow-by-blow report throughout the winter – only significant events. I’m just a gal playing with her new toy this am! Really, pretty nice, gentle storm for the first of the season. Hmmm … To build a fire, or not build a fire … It is 61 degrees inside.

Since I wrote the above, a long time ago, another .05″ has fallen, for a total of .17″ for the storm. I built a fire and it is up to 73 this afternoon. Fur kids and I tucked in – warm, dry, and cozy!

Winter Weather Station

I just bought myself a wonderful weather station. It does it all. Hoping to install the outside station late this afternoon.

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Looking forward to getting much more accurate results, and rain totals in the .01ths, instead of .1s. And wind speeds up to 150 mph! We don’t get those really high winds every winter, but whatever we get, I’ll be able to accurately measure!

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Getting ready for storms

Today was prep day, and I had help – getting wood inside, getting two leaks patched (hopefully), making sure I had enough water – nothing is worse than running low on water when it is raining cats and dogs outside – cooking up a batch of chili, turning a Sat turkey carcass into soup for the duration, making sure as much is secure as I can. My job was to man the kitchen. 😉 An easy job, I must say.

All eyes will be on the weather stories for the rest of the week. Would love to share yours with my readers. Send to kwnovoa@mac.com

Here is the satellite shot, thanks to Dave Allen!

BTW, great moonrise tonight between the clouds. Wish I’d had my camera!

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Fire near Fillmore & Moorpark, Ventura Co.

10:30 pm – latest reports put this fire at 8500 acres and growing. Strike teams being sent from all over the state, including from Monterey.

6:00 pm – Per Ventura Co. FD PIO Bill Nash at 1610 hours~”6000 acres….0% containment”

3:00 pm – the Ventura County fire is called “Guiberson.” Cal-Fire reports: “. . . now at 2300+ acres. 0% 200 homes evacuated. 300+ FF’s on scene.”

1:30 pm – 300 plus acres. Being reported live on ktla as well as the link below. Cal-Fire team 10 activated it looks like. Lots of long range spotting going on, due to winds of 30 mph, gusting to 52 mph.

Officials with the Ventura County Fire Department say over 300 acres of dry brush have already burned and the blaze is moving in a south, southwest direction. There are an estimated 200 homes or ranches in the area and evacuations have been ordered.

The area south of Fillmore, north of Broadway Road and east of Grimes Canyon are under evacuation order, according to Frank O’Hanlon of the Ventura County Sheriff’s department. O’Hanlon says ranchers in the area should leave as “quickly as possible.”

The wind is carrying embers and starting spot fires about one mile out from the fire, said Bill Nash, a spokesman for the Ventura County Fire Department.

“The fire is moving quickly toward Moorpark,” Nash said. “It’s growing very quickly.”

12:30 pm

CBS local live feed

Wildlandfire is reporting 200 acres, but others report the visuals look much larger. it crested the ridge and is heading toward Moorpark.

Wiley Ridge RAWS shows Temp: 94.0° F Winds: 31 mph from NE Gusts: to 54 mph RH: 4% Fuel temp: 98.0° F

Nearest RAWS: here

11:45am Breaking News from KEYT Fillmore Fire
A fire that broke out this morning around 10:30 is continuing to burn near East Guiberson Road and Calumet Canyon Road over the hill toward Moorpark.

There are 8 air tankers and 4 firefighting helicopters currently battling the blaze, along with 46 firefighting engines.

Some of the resources that were working the Station Fire were reportedly diverted to help battle this blaze.

At last check it was two acres…but flames are visable…and there is a great deal of smoke seen throughout much of the area between Fillmore and Moorpark.

KEY News Bureau Chief Tracy Lehr is at the scene…and tells us that is extremely windy.

No homes are threatened at this point…however, the Fire Department is setting up structure protection on the Moorpark side of the fire.

The temperature in the very dry, windy area is currently 98 degrees.

Storm Watch, 2/15

10:00 pm – okay, one last post. Forecast discussion, usually on a twice every 24 hour schedule, has been publishing more than usual, and issued a new report this evening, around an hour ago. It had this to say:

 

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE BURN AREAS OF MONTEREY AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED TO THE
WEST OF THESE AREAS. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY
PUSHED 12 HOUR RAIN TOTALS CLOSE TO USGS THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING
DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BURN SCAR.
HOWEVER...RAIN RATES HAVE RECENTLY DECREASED IN THAT AREA AND SO
THE THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS/FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY.

 

8:30 pm – nothing happening but the incessant wind and rain, so will check back in the am. Be Safe.

7:00 pm – I have been assured that the signs are still up for a “soft” closure at Bixby Bridge and the Big Sur Deli, but that they are not manned. Hotel guests with reservations, as well as residents are allowed through the closure, at this time. Also, when I first started watching the Big Sur River flows this am, reports indicated right around 100 cubic feet per sec. As of 6:15 this evening the rate is given as 646 cubic feet per sec. SurCATS is reporting the river has risen one foot today.

6:00 pm – CHP page is listing NO closures on Highway One in the Big Sur area. Don’t ask me, I’m just reporting what I find. 

5:00 pm – the gennie just ran out of gas. I will check in from time to time throughout the evening to conserve battery until morning. Stay alert, everyone. The road is going to decide where to put its own hard closures before morning. How bad it will be, and where are the only issues left in my mind.

4:30 pm – with the main portion of the storm coming in tonight, the confusion about where any “soft” or “hard” closures are going to be placed by CalTrans and/or the CHP is basically unimportant. If the storm lives up to the predictions, it will all be irrelevant tonight anyway, as the ROAD is going to put the “hard” closures where it wants, without ANY regard to the CHP or CalTrans.

And this afternoon’s forecast discussion states: “THREE GAUGES RIGHT

 ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST...ANDREW MOLERA...FLORES CAMP...AND ANDERSON
 PEAK HAVE ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN HOURLY RAIN RATES DURING THE PAST
 HOUR WITH UP TO .31 INCH PER HOUR."

4:14 pm – CHP reports: “CATRANS PUT SOUTHERN CLOSURE @ THE DELI IN BIG SUR”

3:31 pm – CHP reports: “RESIDENTS ALLOWED INTO AREA ONLY.”

3:00 pm – CHP reporting “soft” closure from Bixby Bridge to southern end. No longer restricted to southbound traffic. Still subject to change, and still hoping to keep the closure “soft” this evening. For those of you not familiar to the difference between a “soft” closure and a “hard” closure, with a “soft” closure, residents, employees, etc. are generally permitted into Big Sur and tourist out of Big Sur. With a “hard” closure, only emergency personnel are allowed into the area.

2:31 pm – Cal-Trans to do a “soft” closure at Bixby Bridge to southbound traffic, all through to the “end.” Hope to keep it as a “soft” closure at dusk, but all subject to change as the storm continues. Having trouble keeping up this afternoon.

2:30 pm – solo vehicle accident – hits rock slide at MM 33, right near Esalen. Boy, Cal-Trans and CHP quite busy today. I hope they get their overtime despite the $#@& legislators in Sacramento, Maldanado included, who REFUSE to pass a budget!

2:20 pm – HIGHWAY ONE TEMPORARILY CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO SLIDE AT HURRICANE POINT. CT working to get it open.

1:55 pm – another one just posted, just south of Bixby Creek Bridge covering north bound lane. We are liquifying, boys and girls! That’s 5 blockages of Highway One, so far today, and it is only 2 pm!

1:50 pm – two slides, one at Partington Rd. blocking the northbound lane and one at Graham’s Canyon (Grimes?) not yet blocking the road, per chp.

12:15 pm – blog back up and working. Rain coming horizontal, at times.

Almost noon, almost an inch. About to go off line, hopefully only temporarily. Road cleared at 11:46 am.

11:15 am – Trees down, just north of Lucia, blocking both lanes. Highway temporarily closed to give CT the opportunity to remove the trees. Winds picking up. Getting more serious.

10:00 am – CHP no longer reporting a slide at Andrew Molera. Take a look at the expected rain map, which has the burn areas marked. It is a doozie. Here:

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=MTR&day=1&img=5

8:45 am – CHP reports a rock slide just south of Andrew Molera. CT should be there by now. I’m sure there will be other slides up and down the coast by this evening. If traveling highway one, BE CAREFUL. 

Additionally, there is talk of extending the Flash Flood Watch. Lots of tourists in Big Sur Valley this weekend, according to friends there. Hopefully, tourists will be encouraged to leave early, if necessary. Stay alert, everyone.

Also, around noon, wordpress, the host of my blog, will be making some code changes. They promise only a brief interruption. But you know how that goes!

8:00 am – 1/2 inch, so far. Significant wind, but not as bad as it can get.

6:00 am – rain and wind. Don’t know what time the rain started, but it was present when I woke this am. Rain totals throughout the day. NOAA forecast discussion says that the radar models predict as much as 3/4 of an inch an hour at times during this storm, which may stall over us through Tuesday. Oh, boy.