Upcoming Storm Systems as of March 16, 2017

From John Lindsey, SLO meterologist:

“A low pressure system will approach the coast and will deliver strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and rain Monday night into Tuesday. Showers will persist into Wednesday. Snow levels will gradually lower to 6,000 feet by Tuesday.

A wet and mild atmospheric river type weather system will move across the Central Coast Friday through Saturday for heavy rain and gusty southerly winds.”

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From the ever anonymous Paul H.:

Hello All, just real quick follow up that rains begin Monday afternoon and continue through extended. Next weekend (march 25-26) there is a possibility of a moderate to strong atmospheric river. This progressive pattern developing should bring substantial rain accumulations that look highly possible by middle of week after next, thus slide/bridge/road repairs are going to have delayed time line set backs!! If wondering the teleconnections supporting this wet pattern are negative arctic oscillation, negative north atlantic oscillation, positive enso ( el nino southern oscillation), MJO phase 5 propagating east to phase 6 (this supports southern extension of Pacific jetstream off Eurasia), and positive Pacific North America Pattern. Bottomline our mother earth is alligning for moist air masses to bombard the lower latitudinal southern extent of the Northern Hemispheric jet stream.
Cheers, paul h

Time to make sure all your restocking is done. I will be doing the same.

Upcoming Rain Event(s)

11:00 AM – UPDATE FROM NWS:

“FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Sobreanes and Chimney Burn Scar areas
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or downslope of the Soberanes and Chimney Burn Scar Areas. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for your area. The FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12/15/2016 10:00 AM to 12/16/2016 4:00 AM PST. A WATCH is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so.”

Rain will return to our region starting on Tuesday and be mostly focused on the North Bay at first. By Thursday a second system with a cold front will produce widespread rainfall that could be heavy at times along with gusty winds.

UPDATED INFORMATION
· This is the first statement for the upcoming systems.
IMPACTS

*Impact (Rain from the first system):
· (Did not include as the bulk of the impact is north of SF)
*Impact (Rain from the second system):
· Widespread rain can be expected starting late Wednesday night and down to the remainder of our region on Thursday as a cold front goes through.
· Rain will likely be moderate to heavy at times as the front approaches. Any locations that have prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain will have the potential for flooding.
· Debris flows are of concern especially around coastal ranges and recent burn scars.
· Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches for coastal ranges with locally more than 6 inches possible. For urban spots generally 3/4″ to 1 3/4″ can be expected. .
o Please see attach graphic (part 2) for potential rainfall amounts. However, please do not focus on exact values.
o Please not that the bulk of the rain may fall during a short period leading to a heightened risk of flooding.
· Driving conditions will likely be poor with ponding on roadways along with low visibility.
· Locations with poor drainage and intersections and on/off ramps prone to flooding will likely have flooding.
*Impact (Wind from the second system):
· South to southeast winds will increase Wednesday evening into Thursday as a cold front approaches our region.
· The strongest winds will be on Thursday with many urban locations likely to see gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
· Higher elevation spots will likely see gusts of 35 to 45 mph with some areas gusting to over 55 mph.
o Please see attach graphic for general wind gusts Thursday afternoon. However, please be aware that peak gusts could be higher.
· Locally strong winds will make for difficult driving conditions.
· The winds could topple trees and power lines especially for locations that are susceptible to winds that funnel in from the south or higher elevation locations.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:
· Currently none in effect although watches and advisories are likely to be issued as the event gets closer.
· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Moderate to high for rainfall and wind.
LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region..
Weather Summary
Wet weather returns as two systems will bring a return to rainy conditions to our region. The first system will mostly be focused north of San Francisco with moderate amounts of rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A bigger concern is with the second system mainly on Thursday that will bring widespread moderate to even heavy rainfall to our region as a cold front goes through. Gusty southerly winds can also be expected with the second system.
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Big Sur Storm Report, December 16, 2014

8:20 pm – lots of thunder. Up to 1.03″

7:00 pm – rain really kicked up about an hour ago. At 6:30, the rain rate was 2.24″/hour. This morning, after the 4:30 am downpour, I measured .20″ of rain. Now, I am at .77″.

7:30 am -woke at 4:30 am with a downpour, thunder, and lightning. Now, I see a lot of blue sky, but a tad chilly at 42.

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Big Sur Storm Report, 12/15/14

Details 00273 2:10 PM CLOSURE of a Road Sr1 S / Sr68 Holman SB SR1 ON THE OFR TO WB SR68 Monterey

Noon – thus far, .48″ of rain. Strongest winds have been 32 mph at 11:17 am. And only 43 degrees with a wind chill of 35. Brrr… So far so good with the roads.

Storm Watch, 4/9/09

As of 11:00 pm, we never did get any rain down here on the South Coast of Big Sur. The radar images on the news tonight (out of Bakersfield, of all places) had the rain going east from Monterey, not south.

3:00 pm – Nothing up here, yet, in fact, a bit of sun, but here are some photos sent to me by Jo-Ann Allison. First, the now infamous car in the culvert, from the Highway One side. It appears to have washed down from the parking lot in the debris flow. Whoever owns this car, has lots of photos for his or her insurance company:

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And this one shows the line of cars, both in front of, and behind Jo-Ann, trying to get through Highway One, on Tuesday, around noon, BEFORE the slide completely shut it down later that afternoon. Also note the fence at the Lodge which was partially taken out.

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And here is one, again from the Highway and Jo-Ann’s car, showing how the parking lot and the Highway were “one” with each other, thanks to the mud. It also shows the loss of parts of the fence. (okay, there WILL be one, maybe, below.)

 

Rain likely later today. For now, up here anyway, overcast, foggy, and dismal. Matches the mood of my cold perfectly. Another day to try to stay warm, dry, and inside. I’ve been promised more photos this afternoon.