From my SLO Weatherperson, “Asthe ridge remains entrenched, subtropical moisture will be transported northward over most of California on Sunday into Tuesday with increasing mid to high-level clouds and a potential for rain showers and thunderstorms. It will feel muggy in the inland areas, however, increasing northwesterly winds on Sunday afternoon into Tuesday will keep the beaches and coastal valleys cooler.
The ridge will move off to the northwest late next week for gradually cooler temperatures over the 4th of July weekend.
“Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter. (Ed. Note, still unsure about strength.)
During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.
Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins.”
“For today, an upper-level low-pressure system is drawing plenty of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Blanca northward into the Central Coast. Widely scattered sprinkles or rain showers will move into the Central Coast later this morning into tonight.
There is also a chance of thunderstorms throughout the region this afternoon. Thunderstorms with lightning activity are expected to develop in the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains and perhaps in far Eastern San Luis Obispo County today. As the upper-level low crosses the Central Coast during the overnight hours, there is potential for thunderstorms activity to continue through Wednesday morning.”
“A broad upper-level trough of low pressure will developoff the California shoreline later on Wednesday and will gradually move eastward across the Central Coast Thursday. This system will produce gentle to moderate (8- to 18-mph) southerly winds, increasing clouds and widespread rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Total rainfall amounts will range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch throughout the Central Coast.
The central and southern Sierra Nevada will see snow above 6,000 feet where another round of late season snowfall is expected. The low pressure system exits the Central Coast on Friday. Increasing northwesterly winds and cooler than normal temperatures will develop on Saturday into next Tuesday. Much warmer weather may return by the end of next week.”
I haven’t checked what Monterey NOAA is predicting, but this is encouraging … Delaying the start of the fire season, perhaps, but thunderstorms at this date could be problematic, as evidenced by the Mother’s Day fire near Parkfield.
Woohoo! I’m at 3200′ but that means I should get some flurries, right? First time this season.
From my SLO Co weather person:
“Partly cloudy skies and relatively cool April temperatures are on tap today as the weather transitions to a wet and unsettled pattern. Today’s maximum temperatures will reach the low to mid-60s throughout San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.
“A vigorous cold front will move over the Central Coast on Tuesday morning with strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain. There is also a chance of thunderstorms as the amount of sunlight is rapidly increasing at this time of the year. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range from one-half to three quarters of an inch with possibly higher amounts in the Santa Lucia Mountains.
“Snow amounts in the Sierra could exceed a foot above 5,000 feet, with 9 and 12 inches as low as 4,000 feet and possibly 6 inches or so at 3,500 feet Tuesday into Wednesday.
“The marine layer will return Thursday night into Friday morning with extensive low clouds, fog and areas of drizzle. Another area of low pressure may move through the Central Coaston Friday night orSaturday morningfor increasing southerly winds and potentially moderate rain. Unfortunately, there is a good chance the low will weaken before making landfall and only clouds will move through San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. The next chance for precipitation should be aroundApril 14.“
2:00 pm – I’ll be darned … Rain. It began around 1:30, and by 2 I had received .02″ and increased to .06″ an hour. Also had to build a fire in the first time in …. Hmm … Can’t remember. I am going to so enjoy this afternoon. Already had the company and the ham, rain started and Rock Knocker went home. I’m going to enjoy a quiet afternoon with a fire and a movie. Perfect Easter. Oh, and there is a “hanger” – a huge tree down, but caught up. Ralph said it was spooky, like a tunnel to drive through. Was going to town tomorrow, but rethinking that.
Doesn’t look like much, if any Rain, for Big Sur tonight, but Tuesday through Wednesday looks good! I am watching the clouds come in from just about every direction, though. Also starting to layer up, and thinking of bringing in more firewood. All good things. Happy Easter to all of you who celebrate this holiday.
Wow, was today fun, or what? Reports of sudden squalls, lightning, hail, sunshine and rain simultaneously, in various locations throughout Big Sur. I only got .11″ up here today, but more yesterday – sorry, I forgot to write it down, but I remember it was up to .25″ at one point yesterday afternoon.
From my SLO Weathercaster:
An impressive (549-dm) upper-level low pressure system iforecast to move over the Central Coast tonight. This system is currently producing a few scattered rain showers this morning, however, convective showers will become heavier by tonight.
This system will draw cold air from the upper levels of the atmosphere and create an unstable atmosphere with the a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight.
These thunderstorms can create gusty winds, hail and periods of heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch.
However, if your location is near a thunderstorm, higher amounts of precipitation could develop.
Today’s maximum temperatures will range from the high 50s to the low 60s. Snow levels are expected to drop to near 4,500 feet in the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains with up to nine inches of new snow above 5,000 feet.
3:30 pm – only up another .12″ but look at what’s on tap for tomorrow?
10:45 am – rain has picked up again, with a rate of 1.31″/hour, for a total thus far today of 1.23″ and 2.75″for the storm. It is supposed to be scattered today, with the heavy rain expected tomorrow. That will be interesting, that’s for sure.
6:00 am – woke to 2.42″ for the storm, and it is still raining. Got just under an inch since midnight, and given the 1″ we got before I turned in for the night, it looks like the .42″ came between 10 and 12 while I lay quietly oblivious and sound asleep. Okay, let me catch up with traffic, have my coffee, and then I’ll be back. Please feel free to share your totals.Cal, how did you far out there by Lake Nacimiento?
10:00 – there’s the first inch. Will be interesting to see what it is in the am. And here is the current radar. Not sure if WordPress will insert at the top or bottom. Sorry. Works differently on an iPad than a computer.
9:15 – okay, it is now officially remaining cats and dogs per my weather station. Up to .75″ now.
9:00 pm – Already another .22″ in the last 1/2 hour. This is fun – the wind, not so much.
8:30 pm – while rain began at 4:47 pm down here, amidst the wind event that started last night. It got up to 41 mph this afternoon, and it is still blowing. But the rain is the issue. By 8 pm, I still only had, I think, about .15″ but within the next 1/2 hour, was up to .46″ and hit a high rain rate of over 2 and a 1/4″ an hour. Wind is so loud, I can’t even hear the rain, ranging from 20-30 mph, currently. Santa Cruz appears to be having all sorts of weather-related road issues. How is it where you are? What are your rain totals? Share in the comment section below.