Christmas Weekend Weather

From this afternoon’s NWS forecast:

“all agree that enough cold air will be present for snow over higher terrain Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow levels drop to 2500-3500 feet by Saturday. Cold northwest flow remains on Saturday with lingering showers possible through the day. Regarding precip amounts. It does not appear that this storm will be as strong or moisture rich as the last storm. None the less…0.25-75″ for most locations and 0.75-2″ for the hills. Depending on the exact timing of the cold air accumulating snow will be possible over the Santa Lucia range. Only real chance for a white Christmas in the Bay Area.”

From NWS, Monterey Bay:

“Much of the afternoon forecast package will focus around the evolving pattern changing later in the week. Models are coming into better agreement in bringing a storm system through the region Thursday night through early Saturday. The exact timing is not totally flushed out yet given model discrepancies. Colder air will accompany this storm system, which may bring some snow to the higher peaks in Monterey county. Will wait for the 12z model package before making any adjustments. All in all, could be a higher impact event given the holiday travel.”

From John Lindsey of SLO:

“Vigorous upper-level winds will intensify the associated cold front as it moves southeastward down the Central California Coast. This cold front is expected to pass the Central Coast Friday night with strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and heavy rain. Rain is expected to continue through Saturday morning.

Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds and rain showers are forecast Saturday afternoon and night with colder temperatures. Snow is expected in the Sierra Nevada by Friday afternoon and night above 4,000 feet with snow levels coming down further on Saturday with more than a foot of snow expected above 5,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada. Generally chilly and clear weather is forecast on Christmas.”

Some of us may see a White Christmas at the higher elevations. ❄️

Big Sur Snow Photos, 1/31/16

imageimageBy popular demand, here are a couple shots from this afternoon. The clouds dissipated, the sun came out to play, and Cone and Twin Peaks finally displayed their winter clothes. Thank you, Big Sur.

These snow photos preempted  my intended 1/31/98-1/31/16 comparison post, so I will post that tomorrow. Still hoping for a spectacular sunset shot, too.

Snow storm, 1/31/16

Big, big flakes started about 8:15 this am. Soft, drifting 1/2 dollar size flakes, some silver dollar-sized. If it continues and sticks, I will have photos. Right now, I need to build a fire, have a second cup of coffee and watch with amazement. Later, I will have a 1/31/98 journal entry to compare to today’s totals (hint: we are seriously behind the 1998 totals.) Oh, my, this is so beautiful! BTW, Cone Peak shots are unlikely, as we are shrouded in the clouds.

From SLO Meterologist: “Total rainfall amounts will range between 0.75 and 1.75 inches with higher amounts in the Santa Lucia Mountains. Snow levels will fall as colder air filters into California. Snowfall will range between 12 and 18 inches for the southern Sierra & 6 and10 inches across the Tehachapi Range.

Snow levels will continue to drop to around 2,500 and 3,000 feet by tonight with a chance for some snow accumulation to reach down into the higher mountains of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.”

A white Christmas?

From my SLO Meterologist:

“Another cold Gulf of Alaska storm is expected to arrive
just before Christmas with the possibility of relatively
low-elevation snow. This active pattern could possibly
continue through the end of the year.”

I’ll be working on the firewood this week!

Weather Alert

A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING… THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON… AND FINALLY INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS QUITE COLD AND SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 3000 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY AND AS LOW AS 2500 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON AREA MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABOVE 3000 FEET… ESPECIALLY IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY WERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE LOCALLY GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Oscars Sunday Weather Report, South Coast Version

From my SLO Weathercaster:
An impressive (549-dm) upper-level low pressure system iforecast to move over the Central Coast tonight. This system is currently producing a few scattered rain showers this morning, however, convective showers will become heavier by tonight.

This system will draw cold air from the upper levels of the atmosphere and create an unstable atmosphere with the a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight.
These thunderstorms can create gusty winds, hail and periods of heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch.
However, if your location is near a thunderstorm, higher amounts of precipitation could develop.

Today’s maximum temperatures will range from the high 50s to the low 60s. Snow levels are expected to drop to near 4,500 feet in the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains with up to nine inches of new snow above 5,000 feet.

BSK, checking in

Super Bowl Sunday, around noon, my systems went wacky. They are still not up to normal … even for up here in the wilderness, so I am writing from Cambria. While I have and had 4-5 bars, everything was connected, up and “running” – the phone didn’t ring, and people who tried to call were directed straight to voicemail, which then did not show up for 18 hours. I couldn’t get email, twitter, FB, OR TV. Wonderfully isolated from the world with my critters, a fire, and a book.

I have had a fire going constantly since Sunday morning – or was it Saturday? Time has not mattered. It stood still for me. I stayed warm and comfortable. This morning, heavy frost covered everything, causing the dogs to slip and slide as they escaped thru the front door. I had to go out in it to keep an eye on my blind dog as his now-absent scents could not guide him, but I stoked up the fire when we came back inside.

The photo below was taken Monday morning when SOME the clouds cleared for a few moments. Yes, snow at the higher elevations although I heard from a north-facing neighbor at 3000′ that they had snow. Not me.

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If I don’t post tomorrow, know I am preparing for the next rounds of showers (varying reports on those) and keeping warm, puzzled by my systems.