“A low pressure system will approach the coast and will deliver strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and rain Monday night into Tuesday. Showers will persist into Wednesday. Snow levels will gradually lower to 6,000 feet by Tuesday.
A wet and mild atmospheric river type weather system will move across the Central Coast Friday through Saturday for heavy rain and gusty southerly winds.”
From the ever anonymous Paul H.:
Hello All, just real quick follow up that rains begin Monday afternoon and continue through extended. Next weekend (march 25-26) there is a possibility of a moderate to strong atmospheric river. This progressive pattern developing should bring substantial rain accumulations that look highly possible by middle of week after next, thus slide/bridge/road repairs are going to have delayed time line set backs!! If wondering the teleconnections supporting this wet pattern are negative arctic oscillation, negative north atlantic oscillation, positive enso ( el nino southern oscillation), MJO phase 5 propagating east to phase 6 (this supports southern extension of Pacific jetstream off Eurasia), and positive Pacific North America Pattern. Bottomline our mother earth is alligning for moist air masses to bombard the lower latitudinal southern extent of the Northern Hemispheric jet stream.
Cheers, paul h
Time to make sure all your restocking is done. I will be doing the same.
Here is one graphic of possible expected rain by John Lindsey of SLO Co:
NOAA NWS is predicting 100% chance of rain on Friday in Big Sur, expected to be in the 1/2″ neighborhood. Keep an eye out for mudslides, but especially after the rains stop as the water makes its way down hillsides.
Spoke with Charlie Hench, Cal-Trans Engineer, this morning regarding the impact of the weather on the predicted night closure of Highway One between Ragged Point and the county line. He said, “Just because it rains, doesn’t mean the drilling won’t go on. It’s a safety issue.” He explained that each day the call would be made about whether to drill that night, and Charlie will then make the calls to notify people, including this reporter. This is a tough one for Cal-Trans, and for the traveling public. The work needs to be done to save the road, and cannot be done without closing the road from 8 pm until 5 am for four nights. The “official” news release for this came in today and is posted on the Cal-Trans page.
On the weather front this from the NOAA discussion:
“THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE INDC A SHIFT IN THE FCST THINKING FOR SUN THROUGH MON. WILL WAIT TIL THE 12Z ECMWF…WHICH WAS TRENDING COLDER TOO BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. HOWEVER…IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT COULD BE COLD AND SHOWERY SUN NIGHT/MON MRNG WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS. IF IT CLEARS OUT MON NIGHT THERE COULD BE A FREEZE.”
So, I will update this again tonight, as bigsurkate is now on weather watch for the next week.
Important Information! I have confirmed with Cal-Trans that Highway One will be closed Sunday night, 12/6 from 8 pm until 5 am and every night through Thursday, 12/10, between Ragged Point and the County line. Delay is possible due to the expected storms. This is to facilitate drilling possibly for tiebacks? THIS IS A HARD CLOSURE. NO ONE WILL BE ALLOWED THROUGH.
Given the forecast, delay seems likely: “WILL WAIT TO
THE 12Z ECMWF COMES IN BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS BUMPING UP POPS [probability of precipitation] FOR SUNDAY A BIT.
NOAA has issued this special weather statement as of this morning. Could be trouble next week for the contract above, and for all of us for the coming week!
…WET AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS EXPECTED TO HIT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST…
A VERY WET AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP NEXT WEEK BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC AND PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE RESULT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL…ALONG WITH LARGE WAVES NEAR THE COAST AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE:
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS.
* HIGH WINDS THAT CAN DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES PRODUCING POWER OUTAGES.
* HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
* DANGEROUS NEAR SHORE CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH SURF FROM LARGE WAVES.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES ON THIS STORM SYSTEM.
Around 7:30 pm, rain fell in Big Sur proper. Two hours later, it is still raining. Yippee!! Down here, I’ve had a little drizzle, a few drops, but nothing one could call rain. I’m hoping that changes in the next hour, although … now that I think about it, I think I left my Jeep windows open. Oh, well!
Just before 10 pm the rain found me. I am happy, happy, happy, even if my windows are open!!
Here is a radar shot from about 9:30 pm:
And here is one from about 10:30 pm:
If you would like to see the most current radar shot, you can go to this website: weather radar
Oh, sh**, I just remembered all the windows in my office — including the window by my desk (and therefore the computer) are open!! And it is really raining!!
Almost midnight, and I am turning into a pumpkin. The rain continues. Happy Day! I cannot tell you how blessed I feel to be dust free for even one DAY!
On a different note: To make it easier to find things on my blog, I have also created hierarchial categories, which are displayed on the side bar to the right, all the way at the bottom. So, if you wish to see photos from the Jade Festival 2008, or weather conditions from last year, you can click on the category and see what I have posted. I haven’t always been good about adding categories, but have done most.