Storm Watch, 2/15

10:00 pm – okay, one last post. Forecast discussion, usually on a twice every 24 hour schedule, has been publishing more than usual, and issued a new report this evening, around an hour ago. It had this to say:

 

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE BURN AREAS OF MONTEREY AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED TO THE
WEST OF THESE AREAS. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY
PUSHED 12 HOUR RAIN TOTALS CLOSE TO USGS THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING
DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BURN SCAR.
HOWEVER...RAIN RATES HAVE RECENTLY DECREASED IN THAT AREA AND SO
THE THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS/FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY.

 

8:30 pm – nothing happening but the incessant wind and rain, so will check back in the am. Be Safe.

7:00 pm – I have been assured that the signs are still up for a “soft” closure at Bixby Bridge and the Big Sur Deli, but that they are not manned. Hotel guests with reservations, as well as residents are allowed through the closure, at this time. Also, when I first started watching the Big Sur River flows this am, reports indicated right around 100 cubic feet per sec. As of 6:15 this evening the rate is given as 646 cubic feet per sec. SurCATS is reporting the river has risen one foot today.

6:00 pm – CHP page is listing NO closures on Highway One in the Big Sur area. Don’t ask me, I’m just reporting what I find. 

5:00 pm – the gennie just ran out of gas. I will check in from time to time throughout the evening to conserve battery until morning. Stay alert, everyone. The road is going to decide where to put its own hard closures before morning. How bad it will be, and where are the only issues left in my mind.

4:30 pm – with the main portion of the storm coming in tonight, the confusion about where any “soft” or “hard” closures are going to be placed by CalTrans and/or the CHP is basically unimportant. If the storm lives up to the predictions, it will all be irrelevant tonight anyway, as the ROAD is going to put the “hard” closures where it wants, without ANY regard to the CHP or CalTrans.

And this afternoon’s forecast discussion states: “THREE GAUGES RIGHT

 ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST...ANDREW MOLERA...FLORES CAMP...AND ANDERSON
 PEAK HAVE ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN HOURLY RAIN RATES DURING THE PAST
 HOUR WITH UP TO .31 INCH PER HOUR."

4:14 pm – CHP reports: “CATRANS PUT SOUTHERN CLOSURE @ THE DELI IN BIG SUR”

3:31 pm – CHP reports: “RESIDENTS ALLOWED INTO AREA ONLY.”

3:00 pm – CHP reporting “soft” closure from Bixby Bridge to southern end. No longer restricted to southbound traffic. Still subject to change, and still hoping to keep the closure “soft” this evening. For those of you not familiar to the difference between a “soft” closure and a “hard” closure, with a “soft” closure, residents, employees, etc. are generally permitted into Big Sur and tourist out of Big Sur. With a “hard” closure, only emergency personnel are allowed into the area.

2:31 pm – Cal-Trans to do a “soft” closure at Bixby Bridge to southbound traffic, all through to the “end.” Hope to keep it as a “soft” closure at dusk, but all subject to change as the storm continues. Having trouble keeping up this afternoon.

2:30 pm – solo vehicle accident – hits rock slide at MM 33, right near Esalen. Boy, Cal-Trans and CHP quite busy today. I hope they get their overtime despite the $#@& legislators in Sacramento, Maldanado included, who REFUSE to pass a budget!

2:20 pm – HIGHWAY ONE TEMPORARILY CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO SLIDE AT HURRICANE POINT. CT working to get it open.

1:55 pm – another one just posted, just south of Bixby Creek Bridge covering north bound lane. We are liquifying, boys and girls! That’s 5 blockages of Highway One, so far today, and it is only 2 pm!

1:50 pm – two slides, one at Partington Rd. blocking the northbound lane and one at Graham’s Canyon (Grimes?) not yet blocking the road, per chp.

12:15 pm – blog back up and working. Rain coming horizontal, at times.

Almost noon, almost an inch. About to go off line, hopefully only temporarily. Road cleared at 11:46 am.

11:15 am – Trees down, just north of Lucia, blocking both lanes. Highway temporarily closed to give CT the opportunity to remove the trees. Winds picking up. Getting more serious.

10:00 am – CHP no longer reporting a slide at Andrew Molera. Take a look at the expected rain map, which has the burn areas marked. It is a doozie. Here:

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=MTR&day=1&img=5

8:45 am – CHP reports a rock slide just south of Andrew Molera. CT should be there by now. I’m sure there will be other slides up and down the coast by this evening. If traveling highway one, BE CAREFUL. 

Additionally, there is talk of extending the Flash Flood Watch. Lots of tourists in Big Sur Valley this weekend, according to friends there. Hopefully, tourists will be encouraged to leave early, if necessary. Stay alert, everyone.

Also, around noon, wordpress, the host of my blog, will be making some code changes. They promise only a brief interruption. But you know how that goes!

8:00 am – 1/2 inch, so far. Significant wind, but not as bad as it can get.

6:00 am – rain and wind. Don’t know what time the rain started, but it was present when I woke this am. Rain totals throughout the day. NOAA forecast discussion says that the radar models predict as much as 3/4 of an inch an hour at times during this storm, which may stall over us through Tuesday. Oh, boy.

Emergency South Coast email list

I sent out a test message tonight to those email addresses I have. I have set up an emergency email list, called “Storm Watch 2008.” If you did not receive this test message, and you want to be on the email list, send me an email at: kwnovoa@mac.com with “Storm Watch 2008” in the title, and I will add your name to the list.

Unless it is an immediate emergency, this blog will still be the major source of my reporting of information. Also, for those out of the area who want to remain updated, everything I send via the emergency email list will also be posted here, so you will not need to be on the email list. Of course, you are always free to call me, too, if you are away from your email and want to check on conditions. Again, my number is 831-818-8026. If that number is ever out of service, for any reason (like the time I lost my charger), the voice mail will direct you to my other number.

Let’s hope this winter will not bring the dire predictions we are hearing about. OTOH, it is better to be prepared and not need it, then not prepared, and need it, as we all know.

I will be following the rain totals throughout tomorrow afternoon and evening. Otherwise, I’ll be home working. Have a peaceful, relaxing Hallowe’en, everyone! Remember, tomorrow night, daylight savings time ends. And with that, I bid you goodnight.

Storm Watch, 10/31/08

6:00 PM – Rain totals: .25 for storm; .50 for season. Tomorrow afternoon should be interesting, and I will report on rain activity as necessary.

NOON – Slight rain, on and off, nothing to speak of or even measure. Will continue to provide rain totals three times a day on the days when I am home, for those interested.

7:30 AM -Rain gauge total this am is .25 inches here at 3272′ in the Santa Lucia Mountains for the storm, .50 inches for the season. Very mild indeed. Still some wind, but pretty quiet.

Sorry about the fonts and spacing. Can’t seem to get it to change, line up, or do anything I want it to do. The information is there, it is just hard to read.

ICS being instituted by Frank Pinney, who reports at 7:OO am, including the weather predictions for our area:

ICS Core Group:
 
Below is the National Weather Service 
prognostication for today and the weekend.  
Note the potential for 3” of rain in the Santa
Lucia Mtns coincides with the number spoken at
the SEAT meeting Wed night by the forecaster. 
(Total up to 4” for the system)
 
Let me know by email now if you will be 
available Saturday for consultation by 
phone or email or both.  
 
I do not expect that we will need to convene 
at the MAF during this event, and it will be 
an opportunity to observe how information 
about the storm conditions gets to us and 
can be used to correlate what’s happening on 
the ground. 
 
Anyone have rain gauge figures storm-to-date 
from your location?
 
The period of most likely storm activity 
appears to be Sat PM into the evening.  I have
some of your cell # but not all.  Please send 
the number if you have one and we don’t 
regularly contact each other by cell.
 
Thanks for your diligence.  We will try to keep
everyone up to date on developments.
 
I take comfort in my Mom’s counsel, “Our worst
fears never happen.”
 
Frank
 
 
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
444 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2008
 
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:57 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE 
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE 
DISTRICT LAST EVENING BUT ONLY DROPPED LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST FROM ABOUT 
SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. KMUX IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING RESPECTABLE REFLECTIVITY 
RATES OF UP TO 40 DBZ WITH THIS RAIN BAND...
ALTHOUGH THESE REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALOFT...
AROUND 7000-8000 FEET AGL. AFTER THIS IMPULSE 
MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR A DECREASING SHOWER 
TREND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DECREASING AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY IS 
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM...AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO END AT THAT TIME 
AS CURRENT WIND SPEEDS
ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE.
 
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT 
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DUE IN ON SATURDAY. 
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO 
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
AREAS (I.E. SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES).
 
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER
COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR SINCE 
THURSDAY. THE MODELS
AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON TIMING...INCREASING 
LIGHT WARM-ADVECTION
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF 
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SF BAY 
AREA...AND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE 
FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 
THE COASTAL HILLS...TO
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA LUCIA 
MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
THAT MUCH RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY A CAUSE FOR 
CONCERN IN THE BURN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY IF THE BULK OF IT FALLS 
WITHIN A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVER THE BURN AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND 
MONTEREY COUNTIES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF 
SATURDAY.
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. 
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY AND WINDS ADVISORIES MAY BE 
NECESSARY.
 
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL 
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER 
OFF ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN
PICK UP MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
 SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY 
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY.