6:00 PM – Rain totals: .25 for storm; .50 for season. Tomorrow afternoon should be interesting, and I will report on rain activity as necessary.
NOON – Slight rain, on and off, nothing to speak of or even measure. Will continue to provide rain totals three times a day on the days when I am home, for those interested.
7:30 AM -Rain gauge total this am is .25 inches here at 3272′ in the Santa Lucia Mountains for the storm, .50 inches for the season. Very mild indeed. Still some wind, but pretty quiet.
Sorry about the fonts and spacing. Can’t seem to get it to change, line up, or do anything I want it to do. The information is there, it is just hard to read.
ICS being instituted by Frank Pinney, who reports at 7:OO am, including the weather predictions for our area:
ICS Core Group: Below is the National Weather Service prognostication for today and the weekend. Note the potential for 3” of rain in the Santa Lucia Mtns coincides with the number spoken at the SEAT meeting Wed night by the forecaster. (Total up to 4” for the system) Let me know by email now if you will be available Saturday for consultation by phone or email or both. I do not expect that we will need to convene at the MAF during this event, and it will be an opportunity to observe how information about the storm conditions gets to us and can be used to correlate what’s happening on the ground. Anyone have rain gauge figures storm-to-date from your location? The period of most likely storm activity appears to be Sat PM into the evening. I have some of your cell # but not all. Please send the number if you have one and we don’t regularly contact each other by cell. Thanks for your diligence. We will try to keep everyone up to date on developments. I take comfort in my Mom’s counsel, “Our worst fears never happen.” Frank AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA 444 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2008 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:57 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT LAST EVENING BUT ONLY DROPPED LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST FROM ABOUT SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. KMUX IS CURRENTLY SHOWING RESPECTABLE REFLECTIVITY RATES OF UP TO 40 DBZ WITH THIS RAIN BAND... ALTHOUGH THESE REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALOFT... AROUND 7000-8000 FEET AGL. AFTER THIS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR A DECREASING SHOWER TREND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM...AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO END AT THAT TIME AS CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DUE IN ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS (I.E. SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES). THE SATURDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR SINCE THURSDAY. THE MODELS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON TIMING...INCREASING LIGHT WARM-ADVECTION RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SF BAY AREA...AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE COASTAL HILLS...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. THAT MUCH RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY A CAUSE FOR CONCERN IN THE BURN AREAS...PARTICULARLY IF THE BULK OF IT FALLS WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE BURN AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AND WINDS ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN PICK UP MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.