Storm Watch, 10/31/08

6:00 PM – Rain totals: .25 for storm; .50 for season. Tomorrow afternoon should be interesting, and I will report on rain activity as necessary.

NOON – Slight rain, on and off, nothing to speak of or even measure. Will continue to provide rain totals three times a day on the days when I am home, for those interested.

7:30 AM -Rain gauge total this am is .25 inches here at 3272′ in the Santa Lucia Mountains for the storm, .50 inches for the season. Very mild indeed. Still some wind, but pretty quiet.

Sorry about the fonts and spacing. Can’t seem to get it to change, line up, or do anything I want it to do. The information is there, it is just hard to read.

ICS being instituted by Frank Pinney, who reports at 7:OO am, including the weather predictions for our area:

ICS Core Group:
 
Below is the National Weather Service 
prognostication for today and the weekend.  
Note the potential for 3” of rain in the Santa
Lucia Mtns coincides with the number spoken at
the SEAT meeting Wed night by the forecaster. 
(Total up to 4” for the system)
 
Let me know by email now if you will be 
available Saturday for consultation by 
phone or email or both.  
 
I do not expect that we will need to convene 
at the MAF during this event, and it will be 
an opportunity to observe how information 
about the storm conditions gets to us and 
can be used to correlate what’s happening on 
the ground. 
 
Anyone have rain gauge figures storm-to-date 
from your location?
 
The period of most likely storm activity 
appears to be Sat PM into the evening.  I have
some of your cell # but not all.  Please send 
the number if you have one and we don’t 
regularly contact each other by cell.
 
Thanks for your diligence.  We will try to keep
everyone up to date on developments.
 
I take comfort in my Mom’s counsel, “Our worst
fears never happen.”
 
Frank
 
 
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
444 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2008
 
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:57 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE 
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE 
DISTRICT LAST EVENING BUT ONLY DROPPED LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST FROM ABOUT 
SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. KMUX IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING RESPECTABLE REFLECTIVITY 
RATES OF UP TO 40 DBZ WITH THIS RAIN BAND...
ALTHOUGH THESE REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALOFT...
AROUND 7000-8000 FEET AGL. AFTER THIS IMPULSE 
MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR A DECREASING SHOWER 
TREND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DECREASING AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY IS 
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM...AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO END AT THAT TIME 
AS CURRENT WIND SPEEDS
ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE.
 
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT 
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DUE IN ON SATURDAY. 
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO 
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
AREAS (I.E. SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES).
 
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER
COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR SINCE 
THURSDAY. THE MODELS
AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON TIMING...INCREASING 
LIGHT WARM-ADVECTION
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF 
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SF BAY 
AREA...AND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE 
FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 
THE COASTAL HILLS...TO
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA LUCIA 
MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
THAT MUCH RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY A CAUSE FOR 
CONCERN IN THE BURN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY IF THE BULK OF IT FALLS 
WITHIN A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVER THE BURN AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND 
MONTEREY COUNTIES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF 
SATURDAY.
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. 
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY AND WINDS ADVISORIES MAY BE 
NECESSARY.
 
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL 
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER 
OFF ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN
PICK UP MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
 SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY 
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY.

 


One thought on “Storm Watch, 10/31/08

  1. My thoughts are with everyone as these rains come in. May they be light enough to avoid danger, yet full enough to renew the Earth, and may all of you have good books to read, plenty of good food to eat, wine/beer/soda to drink, and good neighbors to share it all with.

    Without the possible/potential “biblical” events because of the fire, winter is such a great time to be in Big Sur…nature at its most grand and powerful.

    Carry on Kate and everyone….my thoughts are with you…wish I was.

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