Month: November 2008

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Highway One closed around midnight, but reopened around 6:30 AM. Slide at Coast Gallery. Closed from mile marker 11, Cal-Trans yard, on the south (which makes no sense – why not Lucia or Esalen?), to just south of Nepenthe on the north. If traveling Highway One today, use caution, and remember, Cal-Trans doesn’t work after dark!

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Thankful!!

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Blessings are everywhere, and opportunities for gratitude abound.

Big Sur, with all its difficulties in 2008 rejoices in these blessings and is thankful for the opportunity to live, love, and laugh in Mother Nature’s bounty.

“Life without thankfulness is devoid of love and passion. Hope without thankfulness is lacking in fine perception. Faith without thankfulness lacks strength and fortitude. Every virtue divorced from thankfulness is maimed and limps along the spiritual road.”

– John Henry Jowett (1864-1923)

I wish for all of you – a Thanksgiving filled with love, friends, family, and gratitude. Blessings to all. And today, I am very grateful for the beautiful sunshine and warmth, particularly after the gloomy, raining days we had this week!

Precipitation Watch, 11/26

4:30 pm - drizzle on and off all afternoon, for a total of .40 inches
of precipitation for this storm. On the rain maps, I see that
rain totals for the last 24 hours in the northern mountains were
higher, mostly from today's rains. But down here, everything has
been quite gentle, thankfully! And after tonight, we have 10 days
of clear weather, with above normal temperatures predicted for
this weekend. Sounds good to me!! My single tomato plant is STILL
pumping. Yum.

Noon - one friend reports it is pouring rain in town (Carmel),
but nothing here, yet, although forecasts are for .40 inches
throughout the day.

8:00 am - no measurable rain last night, at least measurable by 
MY rain gauge. May have been .01 or something, but my gauge 
not that fine. Both Mining Ridge and Twin Peaks, the two closest
automatic gauges near me, are reporting .31 inches each. I am 
probably the same. Another .40 inches is expected today, up through
10 pm tonight, when it shows the rain clearing. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
 PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF LOS
 ANGELES. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
 MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MONTEREY AND  SAN BENITO COUNTIES
 INTO SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
 OUR CWA HAVE BEEN MEAGER WITH THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR TOTALS ONLY 0.20
 INCHES AT THREE PEAKS AS WELL AS ANDERSON PEAK...BOTH IN THE SANTA
 LUCIA RANGE IN MONTEREY COUNTY. AS EXPECTED...THE BRUNT OF THE
 PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A NUMBER
 OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED OVER THE PAST
 18 HOURS.

 ACROSS OUR DISTRICT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
 THEN TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER FINALLY MOVES OVER
 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN TRACKS EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA. QPF FOR
 TODAY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AFTER THIS LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE
 ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR DRY AND MILD
 CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...
 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH 240 HOURS.

Precipitation watch, 11/25/08

9 pm – very quiet night. No rain that I can see or hear. Santa Barbara is not faring as well, per the Santa Maria station. Lots of rain and Evacuation orders. So the predictions were pretty accurate with this one. See you in the morning with an update.

5 pm – reports south indicate significant rain for the past 4 hours in Pismo Beach. Up here, we just finally made it to .25. It is getting dark, so I won’t be able to post my own rainfall totals until first light.

The Santa Maria news station is reporting 1/2 inch of rain in that area this afternoon, and significant rains coming into the southern portion of the Santa Lucia ranges, south of the Monterey/SLO county line, with heavy rains heading into the Highway 41 and 46 areas. Evacuation Orders have been issued for the Tea Fire area as well as the Sycamore Canyon area just now, at 5 pm.

3:30 pm – NWS Discussion:

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM TUESDAY...MAIN FOCUS ON RAIN OVER
 MONTEREY COUNTY THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DRY AND WARM WEATHER
 THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

 VANDENBERG AND KMUX RADARS LOOK IMPRESSIVE AT FIRST GLANCE 
BUT SO FAR RAIN TOTALS HAVE BEEN MEAGER. 1 TO 2 TENTHS 
REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE BIG SUR WITH A TRACE 
HERE IN MONTEREY. IR SATELLITE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOK 
JUICY BUT APPARENTLY NOT ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE HEAVY RAIN 
SO FAR. IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS AS ADVERTISED 
WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. EARLIER THIS 
AFTERNOON VANDENBERG AND SANTA MARIA WERE REPORTING HEAVY 
RAIN WITH STEADY RAINS BEING REPORTED AT SANTA BARBARA 
AND SAN LUIS OBISPO. SO THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINS STAYING SOUTH OF MONTEREY COUNTY. 
NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY AS MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ONSHORE.

1:30 pm – Rain reported in San Luis Obispo north to Morro Bay from about 1 pm on. It has been lightly raining here for about 15 minutes, again up here. Just shy of .25. 

Mining Ridge and Anderson Peak automatic gauges are only reporting .12 in the last 24 hours, but being south of both for a storm coming up from the south, as well as my higher elevation, would probably explain the discrepancy.

Noon – rain has become intermittent, as of 15 minutes ago. A total of .20 in an hour and ten minutes. Other automatic rain gauges are showing much less, with Mining Ridge indicating the highest at .04. Maybe the data hasn’t caught up to the sites, yet, or I am in a “pocket” of sorts. 

Also, the animated satellite photos available from the weather link to the right, clearly show the storm pushing north. Take a look for yourself. Remember, click on weather, scroll down to satellite on right, click on that, scroll down to West Coast, 4 km animated, click, and wait to load. Keep an eye on this today. It is clearly tracking north from Point Conception!

11:20 am – consistent rain for the past 1/2 hour. Will post when it hits .25. Friends are in Pismo, still no rain to the south.

10:50 am – the rain has started up here. Also a bit of wind. NWS models predicted it for 2 pm, so we are about 3 hours early. I’ll let you know if it keeps up. No word from my friends traveling up from the south.

9:15 am – just spoke to friends driving up from LA, currently in Oxnard, and nothing, yet. They will call when they hit rain.

This from NOAA:

900 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2008

 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST ITEM OF CONCERN
 CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MONTEREY COUNTY HILLS.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
 INDICATE THAT THE MOST PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF MONTEREY
 COUNTY WITH BIGGER RAIN/QPF IMPACTS FOR SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
 COUNTIES. HOWEVER STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD
 MOVEMENT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD OR ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT
 DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MONTEREY/SAN BENITO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.

SOME MODELS INDICATING A COOL POOL PASSING OVER MONTEREY
COUNTY. [Wednesday] SHOULD THIS OCCUR THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST 
SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR...HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS 
THAT HEAVIER SHOWERS STAY SOUTH. LATEST STORM TOTAL QPF FOR 
MONTEREY HILLS IS 0.50-0.75
AFTER THE CURRENT LOW MOVES EAST ITS HARD TO SEE ANY RAIN 
CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT THE WEEKEND OF DEC 5TH...IF THEN.


8:30 am – All reports seem to indicate that this storm is going to impact Santa Barbara and south, at this time, although we are still expected to see rain today. I had some drizzle around 4 am, but no real rain, yet. Rain predictions are still slightly over 1/2 inch for those of us close to the SLO Co. border, but less for Big Sur proper. Will keep everyone posted as I see or learn more throughout the day.

Precipitation Tracking, Monday

While it might be advantageous to keep a running record of the changes in the forecast today, I decided it might “clutter” up the blog, so will be replacing the weather discussion through out the day and evening with the most current version.

11 am – I must say, from looking at the animated satellite photos, it is really tough to see where this one is going to track. Right now, the counter-clockwise rotation of the storm is sitting just south of the south coast of Big Sur, it appears. Whether it tracks due west, to the south or north will be the deciding factor for us. I’m not a metrologist, by a long shot, so I cannot predict. I’ll just keep an eye on what the experts think.

4 pm – My observations of the same, but updated, animated satellite photos that I viewed at 11 am, are that the “eye” of the storm has moved south. Again, I am not trained, and definitely never studied metrology, just watching and tracking – FWIW, which isn’t a whole lot. If you would like to track it yourself, click on “weather” in my 2008 Storm Conditions blog, then scroll down, and click on the satellite pic on the right. After redirection, again scroll down to Western US and click on the 4km animated link. Then you can track it throughout the day. Most recent “official” report follows. 

231 PM PST MON NOV 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AND
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST
INCLUDING THE BIG SUR AREA.

.DAY ONE...MONDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY 1 AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MONTEREY COUNTY. RAIN TOTALS OF 1/2 INCH
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF HEAVIER RAIN DOES FALL THE POTENTIAL FOR MUD AND DEBRIS
FLOWS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS THE BURN SCARS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY.

ANY RAIN WILL END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS AFFECTED BY THE SUMMER FIRES AND LIVING IN THE BIG SUR
REGION SHOULD FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE
INFORMATION.


I would only add that in light of the predictions of a more  


southernly flow, it is especially important that South Coasters  


pay attention, particularly in light of the instability  


of the Limekiln-Kirk Creek corridor.

Rain Predictions

PM Report: NWS reported this afternoon that it looks like the bulk of this storm will hit Santa Barbara, south:

BOTH OF THESE MODELS HAVE THIS LOW STILL WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
 CALIFORNIA COAST WITH PRECIP CHANCES JUST GLANCING OUR COASTLINE AT
 THIS TIME. BOTH MODELS BRING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN
 CALIFORNIA FROM ABOUT SAN DIEGO TO SANTA BARBARA DURING THE
 TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
 ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES FOR THIS AREA.

The above quote was taken from the link provided below. However, the precipitation forecasts, and general forecasts for this same time-frame (Tuesday through Wednesday) remain the same, with just over 1/2 inch expected for Big Sur. Weather forecasting is not exact, as we all know, so a watchful eye should continue.

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Afternoon Report: The NWS predictions in the last few hours have increased *slightly* the rain expectations for the South Coast, and decreased slightly the rain expectations for the North Coast. Right now, the expected storm is very disorganized, and hard to predict. It will be necessary to keep a close eye on it for the next two or three days.

Several people have reported that rock slides are becoming quite active in the Limekiln to Kirk Creek area. As Firefox points out, the warm days and cool nights, provide ideal conditions for expanding and contracting — thereby loosening rocks.

Also, I remind everyone that the Limekiln, J-P Burns, and Pheiffer State Parks as well as Ventana Wilderness are closed to hikers. As rain events increase and temperatures become more extreme, more and more damaged and dead trees are going to be falling, as well as rock falls, and debris flows.

I recognize that many people refuse to believe the danger, and feel that the agencies are unjustly keeping them from hiking their favorite spots, and are willing to take the chance that they won’t be caught, but if you do get caught or injured, you will be putting others at risk, including our Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade, in effectuating your rescue. Please, our responders have been so overtaxed this summer. Don’t add to their already considerable burden. We will have our hands full with communications, debris flows, highway closures, and every thing Mother Nature can throw at us. We don’t need you adding to that burden.

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AM Report:

From the NWS:

...WET WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

...PERSONS NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS UPCOMING
EVENT...

A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RECENT BURN AREAS MIGHT RECEIVE
ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS TO BE TRIGGERED. AS THIS EVENT IS
STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...PERSONS NEAR THE BURN AREAS IN
MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Also, slight chances of rain as early as Monday evening through Saturday, although Tuesday and Wednesday rain is predicted as “likely.”

There is an interesting discussion about the various predictor models being used, their variants, and the “compromise” predictions being issued as a result of the variants in the differing models. For those of you interested in a more in-depth discussion, you can review it here: (Thanks, Charles Bell!)


And remember, the Harvest Fair for Saturday and Sunday, 10-4, of Thanksgiving weekend has been moved to MAF aka Big Sur Station.

Jade Festival Photos, Part 3

Here are a few more from the 17th Annual Jade Festival:

dsc_9381Belly Dancers performing for a packed crowd

dsc_9369A Matt Glassby creation (BTW, sorry I did not get the color on this quite right.)

dsc_9320Warren Doyle of the Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade speaks to a visitor.

dsc_9319Syd Carr, Music Director, Big Sur Jade Festival

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Kruisin’ Kate …

…has returned. I will post about that later, other than to say that the smoke I saw off the coast of Mexico was probably from a fire in Tijuana, not our own California fires.

Tonight, two items of interest:

1. Slight chance of rain Tuesday through Thanksgiving. We’ll keep an eye on the weather reports as the time gets closer.

2. The Harvest Festival, usually held at the Grange during Thanksgiving weekend is being moved to the Big Sur Station to be held under tents, in case of rain.

And one last thing. Apparently, due to first the eruption of the Chalk Fire the second time, and then the rain and road closure events, and probably due to a  faulty memory disk, I forgot to post more Jade Festival Photos. I’ll try to get some up tonight or tomorrow!