Rain Predictions

PM Report: NWS reported this afternoon that it looks like the bulk of this storm will hit Santa Barbara, south:

BOTH OF THESE MODELS HAVE THIS LOW STILL WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
 CALIFORNIA COAST WITH PRECIP CHANCES JUST GLANCING OUR COASTLINE AT
 THIS TIME. BOTH MODELS BRING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN
 CALIFORNIA FROM ABOUT SAN DIEGO TO SANTA BARBARA DURING THE
 TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE
 ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES FOR THIS AREA.

The above quote was taken from the link provided below. However, the precipitation forecasts, and general forecasts for this same time-frame (Tuesday through Wednesday) remain the same, with just over 1/2 inch expected for Big Sur. Weather forecasting is not exact, as we all know, so a watchful eye should continue.

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Afternoon Report: The NWS predictions in the last few hours have increased *slightly* the rain expectations for the South Coast, and decreased slightly the rain expectations for the North Coast. Right now, the expected storm is very disorganized, and hard to predict. It will be necessary to keep a close eye on it for the next two or three days.

Several people have reported that rock slides are becoming quite active in the Limekiln to Kirk Creek area. As Firefox points out, the warm days and cool nights, provide ideal conditions for expanding and contracting — thereby loosening rocks.

Also, I remind everyone that the Limekiln, J-P Burns, and Pheiffer State Parks as well as Ventana Wilderness are closed to hikers. As rain events increase and temperatures become more extreme, more and more damaged and dead trees are going to be falling, as well as rock falls, and debris flows.

I recognize that many people refuse to believe the danger, and feel that the agencies are unjustly keeping them from hiking their favorite spots, and are willing to take the chance that they won’t be caught, but if you do get caught or injured, you will be putting others at risk, including our Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade, in effectuating your rescue. Please, our responders have been so overtaxed this summer. Don’t add to their already considerable burden. We will have our hands full with communications, debris flows, highway closures, and every thing Mother Nature can throw at us. We don’t need you adding to that burden.

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AM Report:

From the NWS:

...WET WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

...PERSONS NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS UPCOMING
EVENT...

A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RECENT BURN AREAS MIGHT RECEIVE
ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS TO BE TRIGGERED. AS THIS EVENT IS
STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...PERSONS NEAR THE BURN AREAS IN
MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Also, slight chances of rain as early as Monday evening through Saturday, although Tuesday and Wednesday rain is predicted as “likely.”

There is an interesting discussion about the various predictor models being used, their variants, and the “compromise” predictions being issued as a result of the variants in the differing models. For those of you interested in a more in-depth discussion, you can review it here: (Thanks, Charles Bell!)


And remember, the Harvest Fair for Saturday and Sunday, 10-4, of Thanksgiving weekend has been moved to MAF aka Big Sur Station.

One thought on “Rain Predictions

  1. In particular, we should keep a weather eye on the stretch between Pitkin’s Curve and Kirk Ck…those slides just below Limekiln. They are so freshly burned, and the soils there are certainly “hydrophobic”. I have noted that several of the draws had burned very hot, increasing the depth of the hydrophobic conditions. And for those slide chutes. They are already dumping car tire-destroying rocks galore.

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