While it might be advantageous to keep a running record of the changes in the forecast today, I decided it might “clutter” up the blog, so will be replacing the weather discussion through out the day and evening with the most current version.
11 am – I must say, from looking at the animated satellite photos, it is really tough to see where this one is going to track. Right now, the counter-clockwise rotation of the storm is sitting just south of the south coast of Big Sur, it appears. Whether it tracks due west, to the south or north will be the deciding factor for us. I’m not a metrologist, by a long shot, so I cannot predict. I’ll just keep an eye on what the experts think.
4 pm – My observations of the same, but updated, animated satellite photos that I viewed at 11 am, are that the “eye” of the storm has moved south. Again, I am not trained, and definitely never studied metrology, just watching and tracking – FWIW, which isn’t a whole lot. If you would like to track it yourself, click on “weather” in my 2008 Storm Conditions blog, then scroll down, and click on the satellite pic on the right. After redirection, again scroll down to Western US and click on the 4km animated link. Then you can track it throughout the day. Most recent “official” report follows.
231 PM PST MON NOV 24 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AND THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST INCLUDING THE BIG SUR AREA. .DAY ONE...MONDAY NIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY 1 AS WELL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MONTEREY COUNTY. RAIN TOTALS OF 1/2 INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF HEAVIER RAIN DOES FALL THE POTENTIAL FOR MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS THE BURN SCARS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. ANY RAIN WILL END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THANKSGIVING DAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AFFECTED BY THE SUMMER FIRES AND LIVING IN THE BIG SUR REGION SHOULD FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
I would only add that in light of the predictions of a more
southernly flow, it is especially important that South Coasters
pay attention, particularly in light of the instability
of the Limekiln-Kirk Creek corridor.