Weather Alert from MoCo OES

Advisory: Special Weather Statement for Monterey County, CA

Dear Nixle User,Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley-Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Park-Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose-Santa Cruz Mountains-Northern Monterey Bay- 250 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2020 …AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ…NORTHWESTERN SAN BENITO…SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CLARA AND NORTHWESTERN MONTEREY COUNTIES… At 249 PM PDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Interlaken, or near Watsonville, moving east at 5 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Accumulation of hail stones will be possible along with brief heavy downpours. Locations impacted include… Salinas, Watsonville, Gilroy, Hollister, Corralitos, Ridgemark, Brown Valley Road, Amesti, Prunedale, Interlaken, Freedom, San Juan Bautista, Aromas, Pajaro, Elkhorn and Las Lomas. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=43821516

Road Conditions & Misc info

9 am — Road conditions are likely to be changing hour-by-hour today, so keep an eye on the CHP website (link to the right under road conditions). Right now the 101 is flooding in King City near Wild Horse and there are rocks all over the road from the Little Sur to Rocky Point. I imagine Cal Trans will be trolling all day, but for those who don’t know, they stop patrolling at dark.

Also, Mary Adams’s office posted this on FB:

There is information available for employers and workers who may be impacted by COVID-19 from the Californian Employment Development Department.

https://www.edd.ca.gov/about_edd/coronavirus-2019.htm

That’s it for now. I will update as needed throughout the day. In the meantime, I have a very bored puppy who won’t go out in the rain (nor do I want her to as my floor is already a mess) who needs entertaining. Between the weather, the roads, and the coronavirus, it is a good day to stay home.

Upcoming Storm System(s)

10 am update — From John Lindsey: “This hasn’t been the first time when the ‘Ides of March’ has saved our rainfall season, as evidenced by our Miracle March in 1991 and the floods of 1995. We could see rainfall accumulations of between 4 and 8 inches today through next Monday.” looking at his map, it looks like Big Sur is more likely to receive up to 10” of accumulations.

About 4 to 6 inches of rain in SLO county is expected starting this weekend through Friday, March 20, with multiple days of showers expected.

“This will be much much colder experience than the last storm,” said John Lindsey, PG&E meteorologist. “The last storm was a really warm storm system. We’re going from what was pretty warm rain to cold rain.

Forecasts show rain starting this weekend, lasting each day through Friday.

Monday and Tuesday will see some of the heaviest rainfall, with greater than a 80% expected on Monday and a 70% chance on Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service. Monday could see up to 1.25 inches of rain, Lindsey said.

Lindsey said that the weather pattern could bring snow levels reaching elevations of 3,000 feet.

“It will be a pretty impressive weather pattern,” Lindsey said.
Read more here: https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/weather-news/article241169446.html?#storylink=cpy

Wet Weather Pattern coming

I like Meterologist John Lindsay, and have his weather reports sent directly to my inbox. I have missed him lately, although he let us know he was dealing with a family health emergency. His wife suffered a stroke and he shared that story with the SLO Tribune, to which I subscribe. I live so close to the county line and often do my shopping in that direction, and the Cambrian is an arm of the Trib, so it behooves me to subscribe.

Lindsay has a weather column in today’s issue of the Trib and I have copied a portion of it here.

“However, the break from dry weather will be brief as a cutoff low-pressure system is expected to move southward along the Central Coast and produce increasing southerly winds and periods of rain later Monday through Wednesday. 

Precipitation accumulation through Wednesday will range from 0.75 to 2.25 inches, with the elevated terrain along the coastline getting higher amounts. 

Temperatures are expected to warm behind this system, with thermometers climbing to above average and snow levels above 6,000 feet.

Mostly dry weather with a chance of a few scattered rain showers are expected on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures remaining seasonably warm. 

The long-range models suggest another weather system may move through the Central Coast next weekend, with the possibility of additional precipitation. 

Details on strength and timing remain extremely unclear; updates will be given as the forecast evolves. 

Overall, it appears that California is in a weak wet weather pattern for the next seven to 10 days with brief breaks in the wet weather expected.
Read more here:

“However, the break from dry weather will be brief as a cutoff low-pressure system is expected to move southward along the Central Coast and produce increasing southerly winds and periods of rain later Monday through Wednesday. 

Precipitation accumulation through Wednesday will range from 0.75 to 2.25 inches, with the elevated terrain along the coastline getting higher amounts.

Temperatures are expected to warm behind this system, with thermometers climbing to above average and snow levels above 6,000 feet.

Mostly dry weather with a chance of a few scattered rain showers are expected on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures remaining seasonably warm.

The long-range models suggest another weather system may move through the Central Coast next weekend, with the possibility of additional precipitation.

Details on strength and timing remain extremely unclear; updates will be given as the forecast evolves.

Overall, it appears that California is in a weak wet weather pattern for the next seven to 10 days with brief breaks in the wet weather expected.”
Read more here: https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/article240980631.html?#storylink=cpy

Possible light rain?

NOAA forecast discussion yesterday afternoon:

The upper low will begin to move east on Friday and approach
Point Conception on Friday evening. Moisture associated with the
low will increase as flow becomes onshore. A band of light to
locally moderate rain is expected to develop over the Central
Coast late Friday and into Saturday morning. Have increased PoPs
and QPF as a majority of ECMWF and GFS ensemble members depict
this scenario. Exact placement and strength of the band is
uncertain but overall rainfall amounts will be light, with the
vast majority of rainfall confined to locations south of San
Francisco Bay.

Saturday I found these interesting statistics offered by NOAA in my forecast discussion:

One such prominent location - downtown
San Francisco - has observed rainfall records as far back as late
1849. In all that time, only one other year had no precipitation
throughout all of its February -- 1864. Looking back at the 10
driest Februarys for downtown San Francisco as a proxy ( 1864 -
0.00, 1953 -- 0.04, 1899 -- 0.10, 1852 -- 0.14, 1964 -- 0.19, 2018
-- 0.21, 1967 -- 0.22, 1995 -- 0.24, 1866 -- 0.24, 1971 -- 0.26 ),
 we can see that a dry February does not necessarily mean a dry
 March. Of these 10 year, 3 of them had a "miracle" March with
 more than 200% of normal precipitation for the month -- 1899 had
 7.61", 1852 had 6.68", and 1995 had 7.88". Furthermore, 5 of the
 10 years had above average precipitation in March after a top 10
 driest February. Currently, the long range models do look dry
 into early March, however, there is some support for a more
 progressive pattern as the month of March progresses, but it is
 too soon to say what kind of month March will be. Stay tuned

Upcoming weather

Not good news for the summer fire season. From Daniel Swain, Weather West:

High likelihood of broad high pressure ridge over NE Pacific that will keep much of California mostly dry for the next 10-14 days, with well below average precip and well above average temperatures at what is typically wettest/coolest part of year.

Flood Advisory from NOAA & MCOES

“Areal Flood Advisory from 1/16/2020 10:36 AM to 11:30 AM PST for Monterey County. https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=41909474 Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for West central Monterey County in central California. Some locations that will experience flooding include: Big Sur Village, Carmel Valley Village, Andrew Molera State Park, Partington Ridge, Julia Pfeiffer Burns State Park, Esalen Institute, Pico Blanco Campground and Big Sur Raws.”

Watch for Slides, Sat. 12/7

UPDATE: 12:22 PM10[19] 1039 FISH AND GAME ETO APPROX 1 MORE HOUR / FULL CLOSURE NB AND SB

From this photo, it would appear this is the south end of Rain Rocks, south of the Rock Shed, the area that always goes!

Noon: This happened a couple hours ago, but as it has continued raining down here, and even if cleared, is subject to go again. I am guessing this is Chimney Slide, south of Limekiln, but I have no information re exact location.

Tonight & Tomorrow’s Storm

Not as heavy as last weekend…coming in tonight..

Fun little graph of the expected lightning storm on Saturday, 12/7:

A strong jet streak will develop over Central California on Saturday, putting interior NorCal a favorable zone for strong thunderstorm development. (tropicaltidbits.com)

Looks like we might get a sprinkling of thunderstorms, but Yosemite and that area? What fun!

To read the analysis by Daniel Swain of Weather West see: https://weatherwest.com/archives/7020

Chualar Flooding of up to 4 ft causing evacuations

4:30 pm — 101 still closed, in fact a number of places in the area are closed. Look at this CHP log:

A levee broke near Chualar Union School causing flooding in the area. MCSO is currently evacuating some portions of Chualar. The current storm is not helping.

This whole area is a mess with the flooding, people stuck on top of vehicles that are flooded. There are at least 4-5 CHP incidents in this area. Here is one re 101 which is closed both NB and SB near Chualar under 3 ft of water:

Incident: 00248 Type: Roadway Flooding Location: Us101 N / Esperanza Rd Loc Desc: NB AND SB Lat/Lon: 36.595968 -121.545822 

Detail Information
3:32 PM12[21] CPD SNCR WILL NEED TO CLOSE SPENCE X OS, SPENCE X 101
3:31 PM11[20] 1039 MTRY CONFIRMED SO STARTED A BREAK
3:31 PM10[19] A27-012 12 IS 97 TRAFFIC BACKED UP SB 2 MILES OF TRAFFIC BEHIND 12
3:29 PM9[18] OS X 101 IS CLOSED, DETOUR IS RIVER RD
3:26 PM8[16] 12 INQ WHERE SO IS DIVERTING TRAFFIC
3:24 PM7[15] SO CREATED A BREAK DIVERTING VEHS – CPY SCNR
3:19 PM6[14] STARTING A TRAFFIC BREAK SB F/AIRPORT
3:16 PM5[11] [Notification] [CHP]-[10] PER DIST 5 / CANT RESPOND / THEY ARE STUCK IN CHUALAR / THEY DO HAVE A CREW ON ESPERANZA BUT CANT DO ANYTHING /. TOO MUCH WANTER
3:16 PM4[10] PER DIST 5 / CANT RESPOND / THEY ARE STUCK IN CHUALAR / THEY DO HAVE A CREW ON ESPERANZA BUT CANT DO ANYTHING /. TOO MUCH WANTER
3:11 PM3[6] [Notification] [CHP]-MONT SO 1097, NEED TO CLOSE NB AND SB 101 JSO CHUALAR UNDER 3 FT OF WATER
2:57 PM2[4] 1039 CALTRANS DISPATCH
2:55 PM1[2] AFFECTING NB 101 #2 LANE