8:00 pm – Winds just picked up suddenly, which usually means rain is not far behind. If I am still awake when the rain starts, I will provide a start time. If I am asleep? All reporting is off. NOAA is saying after 10 pm. I am predicting with some degree of accuracy that I will be asleep by then, but then I’ve been known to be wrong before!!

This from NOAA:

.DAY ONE…WEDNESDAY NIGHT

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH OUT THE NIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

Also, NOAA said: “PERSONS NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST

FORECASTS ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.”

Looks like a series of small storms, per NOAA. Tonight through part of Thursday, Thursday night through Friday, Sunday, and Tuesday. None are predicted to bring more than an inch of rain into our mountains, and only two of the four hold that possibility. The others are considerably less. Thunderstorms are still predicted for Thursday. Of course, we will all want to be prepared for problems on the road, particularly in the burn areas.

Currently, at 8 am, I have a few high clouds, some wind, and sunshine. The fog on the coast seems to have lifted.

I’ll be on weather watch starting tomorrow night, although all predictions have down-graded this next storm, and no debris flows are anticipated with the one we watched coming on the horizon before the sunset – light clouds, nothing significant.

But watching the fog move in was like watching a wave approach. As I got closer to home, driving the coast the whole way, I watched the fog creep toward me, finally hugging the coast as I settled in up here on my mountain top. Weather can be so fascinating to watch.

Three more days of gorgeous weather, then Wednesday night, rain moves into the area. Thunderstorms possible on Thursday. This is what the NOAA forecast discussion had to say:

THINGS WILL FINALLY CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-ADVERTISED LOW
 OUT IN THE PACIFIC TAKES AIM ON OUR COAST. THIS LOW WILL START TO
 TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM A TROUGH
 AROUND 140W. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST
 SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OUR CWA AND THE LOX CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
 THEN LIFT THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD SF BAY WHILE THE HIGHEST
 PW VALUES ARE DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH.
 ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
 FIRST LOW AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MORE MOISTURE GOING INTO
 THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIFTED VALUES DOWN AS
 LOW AS MINUS 2 WHICH WOULD DEFINITELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
 THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF SF BAY.
 SHOWERS WILL START TO END FIRST IN THE NW AREAS FRIDAY EVENING AND
 THEN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE THAN TWO INCHES POSSIBLE FOR SPOTS IN THE LOS PADRES. AGAIN…

THIS IS STILL FIVE DAYS OUT AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR

FOR A QPF FORECAST THAT FAR OUT IS QUITE HIGH.

HOWEVER DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS…LOW

SPREAD IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES…AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN

CONSISTENCY THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR A FORECAST

OUT THAT FAR.

I rest in your arms…, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

Sorry, I posted the same Elephant Seal photo, TWICE. Losing it, I guess.

Here’s another for you.

Gorgeous weather, huh? Let’s hope we DO get that rain late next week!

A face only a mother could love, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

Elephant seal down by Piedras Blancas. The beaches are very crowded right now.

B&W Parallels, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

San Simeon Pier.

Enjoy the nice weather, I hear rain next week.

After the 2nd week of extremely hot and dry conditions in Big Sur, I called Bradford in King City to air my concerns. Last Friday (okay, I admit I only “glanced” at the Pine Cone, and missed this one) Chris Counts of the Carmel Pine Cone submitted this article:

 Ironically, fire danger  returns to Big Sur 

By CHRIS COUNTS 

WHILE THE California Department of Transportation is working overtime to reduce the threat of erosion in Big Sur, a meteorologist has a piece of advice for residents worried about mudslides and flash floods. 

“Get a weather radio,” said Tom Evans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Monterey office. 

With its hillsides stripped bare of erosion- controlling vegetation as a result of recent wildfires, officials are warning Big Sur residents to prepare for mudslides and flash floods in the event of wet weather. 

While a simple electronic device can’t stop an onrushing wall of mud or water, it can potentially warn residents of an impending disaster. 

“It works like a smoke detector,” Evans explained. “It makes a loud noise as a warning.” 

Just last week, NOAA announced the installation of a transmitter at the Post Ranch. From its strategic location, the transmitter will allow the federal agency to communicate emergency bulletins. 

“We were very fortunate to get permission,” Evans said. “They have a nice hill up there for getting information out.” 

Because of Big Sur’s uneven terrain, some residents will be unable to receive the transmitter’s messages. But many, particularly those living atop ridges, will now be able to get an emergency warning. 

An optional antenna is available to improve reception. And while the radios are powered by electricity, they can also run for two days on a pair of AA batteries. 

For anyone interested in buying a weather radio, Peninsula Communications in Salinas is offering First Alert model WX-200 weather radios at cost, $45.60. Or email Dick Ravich at bigsursat@sprynet.com to place an order. 

While residents are being warned to prepare for mudslides, fire season season returned to Big Sur in the middle of January, thanks to last week’s hot, dry weather. It turns out that the Basin Complex Fire, which ignited seven months ago and was fully contained July 27, is still burning. 

The Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade received a report of smoke in the upper 

reaches of Partington Canyon. The fire was in a location which heavily burned last summer, but a small amount of fuel apparently remained. 

Assistant fire chief Martha Karstens said that fire was one of three flare-ups reported in Big Sur last week. 

“I don’t think anybody anticipated such hot weather,” Karstens said. “On Partington Ridge, it was in the 90s.” 

Firefighters know that embers can survive — deep inside a tree, for example — many months after a fire is officially out, and when hot, dry weather returns, the fire can suddenly break out again. Fire danger is still serious. 

While there is nothing residents can do to change the weather, there’s a lot they can do to make their homes safer from wildfires. 

Karstens said this is the perfect time to clear brush around residences, especially in neighborhoods west of Highway 1, which last summer’s fires didn’t reach. 

“Clear, clear, clear,” she suggested. 

While it may have felt like fire season outside, technically it wasn’t. Much of Los Padres National Forest is closed as a result of fire damage, and a temporary ban on fires exists at Pfeiffer Beach. But visitors can still make campfires or use portable barbecues at several campgrounds and picnic areas, including Plaskett Creek and Kirk Creek campgrounds, and Sand Dollar Beach, Mill Creek and Willow Creek day use areas. And south of Prewitt Ridge, the backcountry is still open to hikers, who are allowed to start campfires where designated fire rings exist. 

If not enough rain falls soon, it’s quite possible the U.S. Forest Service will tighten fire restrictions. “We’ve had some internal discussions,” said Mike Kremke, division chief of the Monterey ranger district. “It’s starting to become a concern for us.”

And this just in from a Monterey Hot Shot: “”fire danger its still out there, i did a little test burn in grass today at liggett to see if and how flammible the grasses are after this last rain.. and wow they sure still went up pretty good… i believe the temp. was 64 and the rh was 38 and still burned good”

I received this as a comment  from Stan Russell, of Santa Cruz, the webmaster of the Big Sur Chamber of Commerce, on my “Big Sur Mile Marker” post, regarding my post on the information re the Road Closure:

“I passed on the information as it was delivered to me by Susana Cruz at Caltrans. The message was the road was closed. You got the message. You can nitpick about what mile marker if that suits you.  I had to wake up to answer the phone and move the information through. You should at least be thankful rather than condescending towards me.”

First, I am very thankful for your efforts, Stan. I really did not think I was condescending. I just realized, that if I’d gotten the message that it was closed on the south, at “Rocky Creek” I would have questioned the accuracy. You don’t know any better, as you have not lived on the South Coast. So, to you Stan, I say, both privately in an email and here publicly, as that is where you posted your comment:

“Stan, you think my post was condescending? I strive for ACCURACY. I wrote you about the error, and your response was, “Oh, well. The road is closed in any event.” Maybe for you guys on the North Coast, “the road is closed, in any event” is sufficient, but for us on the South Coast, we need to know — can we get to Lucia? Can we get to Gorda? Can we get to N-F Rd? The devil is in the details, and it is tough to get them right, I know. Lord knows, I have not always gotten them right, but I try. And when I fail, I apologize. We are not perfect. We are only as good as our sources, and sometimes they are wrong. We need to check them out, verify, and correct if the information is incorrect. I told you your source was wrong, in a private email, and your response was “oh well. The road is still closed.” Well, that doesn’t cut it, from my perspective.

Some possibility of slight showers today and tonight, and then clearing for the rest of the week. It is quite windy up here, and has been through much of the night.

No road closures last night, that I can tell. 

Looks like a quiet week ahead.

Namasté.