Three more days of gorgeous weather, then Wednesday night, rain moves into the area. Thunderstorms possible on Thursday. This is what the NOAA forecast discussion had to say:
THINGS WILL FINALLY CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-ADVERTISED LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC TAKES AIM ON OUR COAST. THIS LOW WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM A TROUGH AROUND 140W. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OUR CWA AND THE LOX CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN LIFT THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD SF BAY WHILE THE HIGHEST PW VALUES ARE DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FIRST LOW AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MORE MOISTURE GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIFTED VALUES DOWN AS LOW AS MINUS 2 WHICH WOULD DEFINITELY TRANSLATE TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF SF BAY. SHOWERS WILL START TO END FIRST IN THE NW AREAS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING.
MORE THAN TWO INCHES POSSIBLE FOR SPOTS IN THE LOS PADRES. AGAIN…
THIS IS STILL FIVE DAYS OUT AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR
FOR A QPF FORECAST THAT FAR OUT IS QUITE HIGH.
HOWEVER DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS…LOW
SPREAD IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES…AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR A FORECAST
OUT THAT FAR.
One thought on “Weather Watch”
It seemed to me that this comment, which was posted into the “OOPS” section of this blog was better suited for this section. So, here it is again with a couple of updates…
Last Thursday, My Earth Science class was tasked to look at the satellite photo of the day, and they spotted that cold front immediately. They even marked where the warm and cold air masses were going…on a collision course against each other. The photo tipped me off that something was coming our way, so I put in a full, hard-core fishing day to make money, knowing that the cold front would arrive late the next week, and probably shut me down. I wasn’t alone. The National Weather Service has already forecasted on their weather radio announcements… “Thursday and Friday, rain likely”. This certainty in their long range predicting is rare. Usually they are more “cagey” and simply say “chance of rain”. So I suspect that “something’s up”.
Well, we are ripe for a storm. The big high pressure area, with its wide warm and dry air mass will be pushed east with a “wave” in the Jet Stream. As it goes, the left side of its clockwise rotation will pull that warm humid air from Hawaii, creating the initial warm front. Behind that the cold polar air will butt against that tropical air mass and charge down behind the warm air. The cold front resulting from this is the one that my Earth Science class spotted, and so clearly seen in both of the photos. By the time it reaches us, the two air masses will be “twisting” around each other, making a real “Lulu” of a wave-cyclone!
There is a chance that this could become the “storm-of-the-year”!!?? Well, we’ll see.
Yesterday, a friend said to me that it IS going to rain because the AT&T Pro Am Golf Tournament begins next weekend, and it ALWAYS rains for the tournament!!!
BTW – Don Harlan’s method of calling the shots for storms was “right on”. Take note!