Day: February 14, 2009

Final weather report, Valentine’s Day

The wind has picked up tonight, and is gaining in intensity. My generator has run out, and I am about to. While typically, the NOAA forecast discussion is issued twice a day, we have a recent report that I suggest you read. See the links to the right, specifically under Winter Conditions 2008-2009, NOAA forecast discussion. It is incredibly interesting. Here is just a “hint” of what they had to say around 9 pm tonight.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT AN EXTENDED 
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE BURN 
AREAS OF MONTEREY COUNTY FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES 
OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY 
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL OVER 
TIME ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE USGS THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING MUD 
AND DEBRIS FLOWS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 
FOR THE BURN AREAS OF MONTEREY COUNTY (SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND 
BIG SUR COAST) FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

Flash Flood Watch

At 3:19 pm on Valentine’s Day, a flash flood watch was issued for Big Sur for tomorrow. Sunday, 2/15. This from the NOAA forecast discussion:

As of 3:19 pm this afternoon, NOAA forecast discussion posted the following:

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES 
WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 4-5 INCHES ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST IN 
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS THE FRONT STALLS SUNDAY EVENING. 
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS ACROSS THE BURN 
SCAR AREAS OF BIG SUR AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. A FLASH 
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG SUR COAST AND SANTA 
LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
I just received additional information from the NWS a few moments
ago (4 pm):

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING...
 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO 
BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A
 * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF 
MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING THE SANTA
LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL 
FOREST AND BIG SUR COAST.
 * FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY 
MID-MORNING
 * AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS 
OF RAINFALL OVER TIME ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
USGS THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING MUD AND DEBRIS 
FLOWS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS 
ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...
ANY ADDITIONAL MODERATE OR HEAVY RAINFALL 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING 
OR DEBRIS FLOW PROBLEMS.
* FLASH FLOODING AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE
 A PARTICULAR THREAT IN AND BELOW THE MONTEREY 
COUNTY BURN AREAS...INCLUDING BIG SUR
VILLAGE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY 
DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH 
FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS CAN HAPPEN
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE. RESIDENTS 
IN OR BELOW THE MONTERERY COUNTY BURN AREAS 
SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW TO PROTECT THEIR 
PROPERTY. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND FOLLOW DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS.
EVACUATONS SHOULD BEGIN IMMEDIATELY WITHOUT 
WAITING FOR INSTRUCTIONS IF HEAVY FLOWS OF WATER 
OR MUD ARE OBSERVED.