The wind has picked up tonight, and is gaining in intensity. My generator has run out, and I am about to. While typically, the NOAA forecast discussion is issued twice a day, we have a recent report that I suggest you read. See the links to the right, specifically under Winter Conditions 2008-2009, NOAA forecast discussion. It is incredibly interesting. Here is just a “hint” of what they had to say around 9 pm tonight.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE BURN
AREAS OF MONTEREY COUNTY FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES
OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL OVER
TIME ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE USGS THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING MUD
AND DEBRIS FLOWS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BURN AREAS OF MONTEREY COUNTY (SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND
BIG SUR COAST) FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.
At 3:19 pm on Valentine’s Day, a flash flood watch was issued for Big Sur for tomorrow. Sunday, 2/15. This from the NOAA forecast discussion:
As of 3:19 pm this afternoon, NOAA forecast discussion posted the following:
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 4-5 INCHES ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST IN
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS THE FRONT STALLS SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS ACROSS THE BURN
SCAR AREAS OF BIG SUR AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG SUR COAST AND SANTA
I just received additional information from the NWS a few moments
ago (4 pm):
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING THE SANTA
LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL
FOREST AND BIG SUR COAST.
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
* AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...RAINFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS
OF RAINFALL OVER TIME ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
USGS THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING MUD AND DEBRIS
FLOWS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...
ANY ADDITIONAL MODERATE OR HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
OR DEBRIS FLOW PROBLEMS.
* FLASH FLOODING AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE
A PARTICULAR THREAT IN AND BELOW THE MONTEREY
COUNTY BURN AREAS...INCLUDING BIG SUR
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH
FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS CAN HAPPEN
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE. RESIDENTS
IN OR BELOW THE MONTERERY COUNTY BURN AREAS
SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW TO PROTECT THEIR
PROPERTY. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND FOLLOW DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS.
EVACUATONS SHOULD BEGIN IMMEDIATELY WITHOUT
WAITING FOR INSTRUCTIONS IF HEAVY FLOWS OF WATER
OR MUD ARE OBSERVED.